#WTH Israel has little reason to celebrate
And neither do we. But Congress still holds the keys to victory.
Israeli military and political leaders have been celebrating the failure of Iran’s much-advertised attack. There were, after all, 170 drones, more than 120 ballistic missiles, and around 30 cruise missiles launched from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen. “Only” seven of those landed in Israel, almost no damage was done, and the sole casualty was a little Muslim Bedouin girl.
A less political and more strategic analysis of what happened suggests a series of conclusions, few of which are reasons to spike any footballs.
Yes, the Israelis, Americans, Brits, French, Jordanians and others worked seamlessly and impeccably to take out what Iran sent Israel’s way. It was a pleasure to watch, 💥, and an embarrassment to the Iranians, who were forced to lie about the damage they caused, using footage from other events around the world to pretend they achieved their goal. But, a few factors were critical in the allied success, among them: Iran had telegraphed their intentions more than a week before; Hezbollah did not, for the most part, get involved from Israel’s northern border; Israel’s missile defenses worked steadily and capably; there was enough allied metal in the air and at sea to take out the onslaught; Arab friends of the United States stepped up in sharing airspace and probably targeting information and more. That’s good news. Still, seven missiles got through. What if they had been targeting cities? What if they had been armed with chem/bio or nuclear warheads? Think about that, and suddenly “success” doesn’t seem like the right word. “Near miss” feels more right.
The Iranians opened a pandora’s box in launching the attack from their territory. The intent, it seems clear, was to signal to the Israelis that the understanding of the last 45 years — Iran operating through proxies against Israel, and Israel operating covertly in Iran — was off. Obviously, this opens the door — one could almost say “guarantees” — that Israel will respond in some way with an attack on Iranian territory. An escalating cycle of Israeli-Iranian violence is a bad thing, particularly if Iran consolidates its proxies in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to join an onslaught. Is this scenario too farfetched? Think about October 7 and ask yourself again.
Bad actors are learning from each other. As the readout from the Institute for the Study of War laid out, the Iranians adopted an attack strategy that was a) intended to cause significant damage inside Israel; b) designed based on Russian lessons learned in using the same materiel to attack Ukraine: “The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones.” The Ukrainian success rate against lesser such barrages is 46 percent, per ISW, but they are handicapped by a lack of air power. Iran likely expected the Israelis to perform better, but not as well as they did. What happens next? They learn what it takes to overwhelm Israeli and allied defenses, possibly before we learn how to build more foolproof missile defense. Who else is watching? Remember, these are also American capabilities; so, the Russians and the Chinese are watching carefully. Very carefully.
The Israelis will respond to Iran. Friends have been suggesting that Israel’s response will consist of getting the US ok for the final push into southern Gaza and the taking of Rafah. I believe this misunderstands Israel: They were always going into Rafah. Getting a nudge and a wink from the White House would be nice, but it’s not what Israeli political or military leaders will calculate answers the mail to the Iranian attack. Israel has many options, but all will have consequences. Some speculate they are aiming to take out Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This must trigger all out war with Hezbollah, and Israel isn’t going to do that when its forces are still in Gaza, at least I don’t think so. That likely leaves targets inside Iran. I say take out their drone manufacturing facilities, helping Ukraine and themselves. Will they? How will Iran respond?
America is dysfunctional. Perhaps this should have been conclusion #1, but wherever it lands on the flow chart, it’s a disaster. Forget the troll level stuff about senile Uncle Joe and crazy Uncle Donald. The White House is obsessed with escalation, whether in Russia or the Middle East or around China, and its obsession is driving a fearfulness and a cautiousness that our enemies calculate — possibly correctly — as weakness. Nor are the president and would-be president the only problems; Congress has been indulging in petty squabbling, politically base maneuvering, and useless posturing for years now. Republicans don’t want to support Ukraine against Russia, Dems don’t want to support Israel against Iran. None of them want to initiate massive defense reforms that will prepare the United States for the conflicts ahead. This is the sheerest insanity. Think of it this way: given the option, would we not have done more to stop Hitler in 1935? Russia is incompetent, but growing more competent. As Fred Kagan tells us in our forthcoming pod, Russia has learned to strategically and tactically manage its own poor troops. Do we want Russia on NATO’s border? Do we want Iran victorious over Israel? With nuclear weapons? Congress can support aid packages for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan and show the leadership Biden has failed to demonstrate. The American people do not wish to see NATO at war with Russia and they don’t want to see Israel crushed. This is obvious.
There’s nothing in this piece on Gaza. Nothing on China and Taiwan. Nothing on North Korea. Nothing on the wars raging in Africa. Nothing on al Qaeda and ISIS’ resurgence. Add those to your list, and ask again, are we ready? Are there reasons to celebrate?
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Read ISW’s analysis here.
Read Ken Pollack and Dan Byman’s slightly different, smart take here.
MEMRI and Tablet's "The Scroll" blog are saying that this attack was approved by Washington beforehand.
I'm not saying I agree with this. I'm saying that non-crazy people are saying this.
If true-and again I'm not saying it is- it would be the biggest scandal in US history.
Receipts:
https://www.memri.org/reports/ayn-al-asad-number-two-%E2%80%93-iran-pre-coordinated-its-attack-against-israel-us-so-no-one-will-be
https://thedailyscroll.substack.com/p/april-15-2024-the-real-war-vs-the