Elise and I talked Trump and Putin, and lots else on HTHH. Have a listen and see if you agree with us. I’m overseas and I’m not going to wait for the Trump/Putin presser tonight. But, a few things: I’m watching all the usual suspects pronounce their views based on the Trump greeting in Alaska, seeing all the usual denunciations of Trump for trying to end the Russian war on Ukraine, and … why not hit pause? Let’s see what happens.
We can rehearse the pathetic Biden record on Ukraine, the lousy Trump statements about Zelensky, and relax into our prejudices. But the bottom line is that this is a terrible war that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives. Ending it without a Russian defeat is not something that we should want, but a Russian defeat a la World War II is not in the cards. The aim has to be to push Putin as far out of Ukraine as possible, and secure enduring and defensible lines for Ukraine.
If Germany or France or the UK wanted to join Ukraine’s fight, I’d say, ok, perhaps we should seek another outcome. But that’s not the reality. The reality is that we are all willing, up to a point, to arm Kyiv to fight. In current circumstances, that won’t translate into a decisive victory and the recovery of sovereign Ukrainian land. So, there needs to be a ceasefire. That’s what Donald Trump says he wants, or he’ll head home.
As I said on MSNBC, Putin and Trump are coming in with two opposing games. Putin thinks he can bribe Trump into accepting less than his demand for an immediate ceasefire. Trump thinks he can tempt Putin into accepting an immediate ceasefire in return for better economic ties with the United States. The sequencing matters.
The fact that Russian foreign minister arrived in Alaska — and remember, they are coming to us — in a sweatshirt emblazoned with CCCP, the Cyrillic for USSR, tells us what we need to know about Moscow’s ambitions.
We’ll know more soon, but let’s stop lying to ourselves about possible outcomes. A complete ceasefire is what’s needed to negotiate an end to this war. Whether Donald Trump smiles at Putin is immaterial. What matters is the endgame. As in his first term, Trump has been kinder to our enemies than necessary. But when push came to shove, then as now, words didn’t matter. What mattered was what we did — sanctions and a policy hard line. I am hopeful that Trump is onto Putin. Just hopeful.
More on this soon, but in the meantime, thanks to all of you for tuning into my live video with Elise Labott! Join us next week for another Hot Takes Happy Hour.
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