The day before Russia invaded Ukraine, we sat down on the podcast with the inimitable Gen. Jack Keane to talk war, American national security, Putin’s aims and the deeper problem the United States has… We’ve been disinvesting in defense for years now, and as Jack notes, “You know, the defense budgets, during the cold war, [they were] around 7%, they’re now south of three. And it’s just grossly inadequate to deal with the threats that the United States is facing.”
The implications of NATO’s failure to deter Putin from invading a sovereign country — the largest military action in Europe since World War II — are enormous. Among them, the risk of further attempts by the Russian despot to take other former Soviet captive nations, including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, to which NATO has an Article 5 treaty obligation; the odds that China’s Xi Jinping decides that at a moment of the West’s greatest weakness, he will do as promised and invade democratic Taiwan; and we cannot rule out major cyber attacks and retaliation against European nations and the United States for even weak attempts to punish Russia.
The coming days will tell whether NATO is the alliance it was intended to be and whether President Biden and America’s European allies will step up and do what is necessary to isolate Vladimir Putin, arrest his onward march and aid in preserving the sovereignty of Ukraine. As you will hear, we have grave doubts. Listen, share, and let us know of comments, suggestions or (heaven forfend), complaints.
HIGHLIGHTS
Gen. Keane: You have to believe that what Putin is attempting to do is even much larger than Ukraine, that he's really reconstructing the post cold war boundaries in Europe. And he wants a rearrangement of the security architecture that's existed…he flatly resents the fact that, post cold war, the United States led an expansion into Eastern Europe with so many of the former Soviet republics part of NATO. And I see Ukraine and Belarus as being initial steps here in bringing them underneath his orbit of control.
Gen. Keane: I think the objective, the goal, and what he's about is … he wants to control the Ukraine. And believe me, I think the vision is very serious on his part. He wants a form of retrenchment of the post cold war architecture, and he's going to pressure NATO in a way that NATO has not seen before, and he's got the military capacity to do it. And for those who are out there saying, "Well, listen, Putin doesn't want to have a conflict with NATO. He knows he'd lose any war with NATO," I'm looking at it and saying, "Where have you been?" I mean, I have played a war game as part of a congressional commission a couple years ago, with Russia taking the Baltics. They took it in somewhere around 48 to 72 hours, took the capital cities very quickly, and denied NATO forces coming from an ocean away, and the United States access to any of the arrival ports or arrival air fields, took down all the major NATO air bases very, very quickly, from never even flying a single airplane across their border.
Gen. Keane: I think there's still weak-kneed leadership in NATO, and they project weakness as opposed to strength. And they've got to get with it, and recognize what we're really dealing with here. And their budgets alone are an indicator of their determination. The military capabilities that they really need to build are an indication of their determination.
Gen. Jack Keane: The United States is sitting here, facing two major powers in the east in China, and in the west in Russia, and clearly returning to some aspect of a dimension of a cold war, and we have a one war strategy that the United States Defense Department is wrapped around. We can only fight and win one war. That's what we're budgeted for. And that makes no sense. And we would likely lose that war because we're not resourced properly. You know, the defense budgets, during the cold war, around 7%, they're now south of three. And it's just grossly inadequate to deal with the threats that the United States is facing, and NATO is going to have to step up because, and the Europeans are going to have to step up. This can't be a burden just for the United States because of the threat of China, and the resources that's going to require from our defense establishment.
Gen. Keane: Well, I mean, there's nothing that we can do now to deter Putin from taking more of the unoccupied space in Ukraine, or even from toppling the government in Ukraine. There's nothing. The only thing that would stop that would be US NATO troops, that we would bring into Ukraine, and that's not going to happen. We've had three presidents that have made that decision, and there's no preparation of the American people and the Congress for something like that
Gen. Keane: NATO should be alerting and deploying NATO's response for us. It's 40,000 strong. It should go to the Baltics and Poland. And the United States, I love my paratroopers sitting there in Poland. I used to command them, and I was one of them as a youngster also. But they're not much deterrent for anything that Putin has. And I think they should have deployed an armored brigade in there. NATO has got to show its leg a little bit here
Gen. Keane: I think there should be a movement east. I don't believe in bringing the troops home, but I do believe that they should be moved east. There should be an armored brigade sitting right there in Poland, for sure. You can take the United States European command and move that also into Poland and out of Germany. I totally agree with this. Now, I do have a caveat here. We have a major threat with China. And we're outgunned and outmanned when you line up military capability against the United States and our allies. And we've got a long way to go to make it up.
Gen. Keane: Europeans, the other NATO nations have got to step up here in a way that they haven't in the past. And the United States has got to put real pressure on them. We cannot bear all the burden, in terms of increasing force levels in Eastern Europe, given the challenge we have with China. And we can't get there, certainly, on defense budgets south of 3% of GDP, GDP. It's impossible to deal with these major threats at that level of funding. … we've got a 16% increase in domestic spending. We've got a 2% increase in defense spending and it's not even accounting for inflation. So the fact is we have a declining defense budget, as opposed to one that should be dramatically increased considering what's happened on the domestic side.
Gen. Keane: …we've got to find the resolve. And that resolve is, at some point, has to be expressed in the budgets of NATO and certainly of the United States and reflecting it. [And] if we do impose those tough economic sanctions that Biden is suggesting, and hopefully he does, and it will take, have economic impact, I think Putin will likely reciprocate. And he would target not just Europeans, but target the United States. And he's got the second best cyber offensive capability in the world. The United States is number one. China's the most prolific, to be sure. But Russia is truly outstanding. And I believe they would come, if we're hitting his oil and gas industry, they will come after ours. And they've already demonstrated what they can do with the Colonial Pipeline
Gen. Keane: Certainly China's feeling about Taiwan is remarkably similar to Putin's feeling about Ukraine. They actually use almost similar language in describing it. And I totally agree with the analogy going back to 1938 and Czechoslovakia writ large in terms of Hitler's justification. And yes, when countries have those kind of ambitions and they're willing to use force to do it, even though they think the application of that force will be limited and it will not lead to a major confrontation, we've seen the results of that from the past. So this is a very dangerous time for us
Find the full transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
“Zelenskyy Says Will Meet Putin Anywhere After Munich Trip Called 'Reckless',” (Newsweek, 2/19/22)
“Gen. Keane on 'Faulkner Focus': Unprecedented information campaign has Putin 'on the defensive',” (Fox News, 2/16/22)
“'Your World' on Trudeau, Russia-Ukraine,” (Fox News, 2/15/22)
“Gen. Jack Keane On Russia Ukraine Crisis: ‘I Do Think There Is A Diplomatic Pathway’,” (The Guy Benson Show, Fox News Radio, 2/15/22)
“Gen. Keane: Nord Stream 2 isn't 'a big deal' for Putin in Ukraine crisis,” (Fox Business, 2/8/22)
“Gen. Keane warns China, Russia's budding relationship 'very concerning',” (Fox Business, 2/1/22)
“Putin recognizes independence of Ukraine breakaway regions, escalating conflict with West,” (CBS News, 2/21/22)
“Ukraine Conflict Update,” (Institute for the Study of War, 2/21/22)
“World leaders condemn Putin.” (NYT, 2/21/22)
“Ukraine-Russia crisis: What to know amid a push for a summit,” (AP News, 2/21/22)
“The U.S. warns that Russia has a 'kill list' of Ukrainians to be detained or killed,” (NPR, 2/21/22)
“Ukraine Calls for U.N. Security Council Meeting as Russian Forces Mass on Borders,” (WSJ, 2/21/22)
“U.S. has intel that Russian commanders have orders to proceed with Ukraine invasion,” (CBS News, 2/20/22)
“Biden says U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine,” (WaPo, 2/18/22)
“Transcript: Secretary of State Antony Blinken on ‘Face the Nation,’ February 20, 2022,” (CBS News, 2/20/22)
“Statement from Press Secretary Jen Psaki,” (The White House, 2/20/22)
“Remarks by President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine,” (The White House, 2/18/22)
President Biden Twitter:
-“We’ve seen reports of a major uptick of violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine — and we continue to see more disinformation pushed out to the public. All of this is consistent with the playbook that the Russians have used before.” (Twitter, President Biden, 2/18/22)
-“The United States and our Allies and partners will support the Ukrainian people. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions. The West is united and resolved — and we are ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.” (Twitter, President Biden, 2/18/22)
-“The American people are united. Europe is united. The Transatlantic community is united. The entire free world is united. Russia has a choice — between war and all the suffering that it will bring — or diplomacy that will make the future safer for everyone.” (Twitter, President Biden, 2/18/22)