#WTH A ceasefire with Hezbollah, for now

But the war is far from over

We’ve got a new pod on global depopulation out this morning — a chat with the incredible Nick Eberstadt. Fire it up on Apple Car Play on your drive to your mother-in-law’s house (or wherever you will celebrate Thanksgiving). It’ll give you something to talk about that isn’t the election, and that is something to be thankful for. The Eberstadt substack is coming soon, but this one is about the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.

If you read the New York Times, you might believe that the year-plus long war between Hezbollah and Israel was just one of those magical things that happened, because, you know, sigh, the Jews, the Zionists, something something. In fact, on the day after the terrible October 7 attacks, Hezbollah started lobbing missiles at Israel, and didn’t stop until the ceasefire this morning.

14150 missiles have been fired from Lebanon into Israel.

Notwithstanding, the Biden administration has been obsessed with ceasefires, almost with the same fervor it brings to “escalation management.” This is a hallmark of its naivety, its amateurish global strategery, and its inability to distinguish right from wrong in a forthright way. (See: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Yemen. etc.) Ceasefires are nice if you are in the line of fire or want a good headline, and less nice if you love victory, or sustainable peace. They are opportunities for both sides to recharge, recalibrate attacks, and renew war. In short, ceasefires are the stuff of diplomacy, and in war, diplomacy works best when one side has lost.

On the case of Hezbollah, let’s review the bidding for just a moment to understand how we got here. Hezbollah was created by Iran for Iran in Lebanon. A terrorist group-cum-political party, the terrorists (and the politicians) have been responsible for the death of Americans, Israelis, Syrians, and innumerable Lebanese. This self-labeled Party of God is a scourge on Lebanon, and has presided over the murder of too many Lebanese politicians to count, and the slow, but steady destruction of the Lebanese state.

Over the years, various agreements and U.N. Security Council resolutions have negotiated Hezbollah’s disarmament, an end to the transfer of arms to Hezbollah, an end to Hezbollah’s role as a state within a state, and other fantastical “breakthroughs” that bore no relationship to actual reality on the ground, ever. The United Nations has presided over part of this farce, with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) ignoring its mandate, ignoring Hezbollah, and per UN custom, focusing entirely on the Jews, and their many transgressions.

And then there are the Lebanese Armed Forces. The USG likes to pretend this is a real army that does real stuff. And to be fair, they do have uniforms and weapons. Various US military leaders have sung the LAF’s praises, failing for reasons inscrutable to me to see that the LAF fights where Hezbollah says they fight, and doesn’t tread where its masters in Iran tell them not to tread.

And so, we come to the ceasefire Joe Biden excitedly announced in the Rose Garden. Will this ceasefire work? No. Will UNIFIL fulfill its envisioned role enforcing it? No. Will Hezbollah stop rearming? No. Will the barrages against Israel stop? Yes, for now.

Understand that Israel has, at a high price in blood and treasure, blasted the crap out of Hezbollah. The Radwan Brigades that were intended to do an October 7 on Israel’s northern communities have been eviscerated, and their weapons caches have been destroyed. Hezbollah’s operational centers have been blasted to dust. Hezbollah’s operational leadership is dead. Its missile and drone caches have been largely destroyed. Israel was determined and ready, and the IDF did not annihilate Hezbollah, but proved that they could do what it takes to destroy 80 percent of the organization and its infrastructure.

Inside Israel, many Israelis believe the job should have been finished. Perhaps they’re right; it’s hard to judge, but the cost benefit analysis is a tough one. Sacrificing many soldiers for small incremental victories is not something any Israeli leader wants to do. Is this the end of Hezbollah? No way; they’re too important to Iran, and Iran needs this proxy most of all. They will build back better, but it’ll take a while. So Israel is taking the win for the moment.

Will this lead to peace in Gaza? Only if the hostages come back, something to which Hamas said no again in the last week. So the war will continue. But let’s say it again: Absent Iran, Hamas doesn’t exist. Hezbollah doesn’t exist. The Houthis don’t exist. The Hashd (Popular Mobilization Forces) in Iraq don’t exist. Killing Hezbollahis and Hamas terrorists is a game of whack-a-mole. For Iran, there’ll always be another Arab to die in their cause. Until the regime in Tehran is gone, Hezbollah et al will always return. They’re cheap, they’re ready to die, and only the Israelis are brave enough to deal with them.

What does this have to do with us? Iran is a deep breath away from a nuclear weapon. That changes the calculus about what to do, not just to Iran, but also to Iran’s proxies. Right now, Iran is mediating the sale of Russian missiles to the Houthis. Others will step up their weapons game too. Will Tehran share its nukes? Never say never.

It’s going to be up to Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu or his successor in Jerusalem to deal with this challenge in the coming months and years. Israel may have won this battle, but the war is far from over, and won’t be finished unless the regime of the Islamic Republic is destroyed.