Discussion about this post

User's avatar
James Madison's avatar

A funny thing happened when I negotiated, … there were diversions, asks that were not possible, delays, dodges, false signals, and non-linear discussions. When I negotiated with the Chinese I learned the value of time. We expect it will take X, the Chinese love to drag it on to 10 X to the 10th power (don’t book your departure flight - leave the date open). Negotiations, real hard negotiations, are full of misleading signals, leaks, and hopefully one party who says something they cannot take back without paying a stiff price. Time wears down our defenses, diffuses some of our concerns, and westerners often like to fill the silence. Foreigners know how to negotiate with the American psyche. Delay — see the Paris Peace Agreement and how the N. Vietnamese taught the world the Art of the Deal (see Iraq, Afghanistan).

So, I suspect the Trump gang knows all about the Vindman Factor and may even use it to their advantage. Leaks and leakers are now being played in this administration, and like the informal meetings prior to the invasion of Iraq that VP Cheney chief of staff, Scooter Libby, had with Judith Miller, the Trump folks know how to use the permanent White House leak staff to send messages to The NY Times and into the blogosphere to confuse or influence Tehran. Take what is being said, leaked, and rumored for that. Words, not strategy, not plans, …, maybe tactics. Maybe just diversion?

I also know that Isreal is ready, two US carrier groups are in the neighborhood, 40% of our stealth land based aircraft are in the region, and …, we have other assets nearby. We are sending signals that if these talks don’t work, …, then, …???

And Trump’s main signal is time is running out for Iran. Our B-2’s are getting practice flying from Diego Garcia to Yemen to persuade the Houthis with serious ordinance — overkill if ever there was one.

Trump wants to avoid conflict — and control the situation with a missile or air campaign that involves little chance Americans are captured or directly involved in combat. Trump does not want American pilots paraded through the streets — 2026 elections are near and the Dems are boiling mad. He does not want to be GW Bush facing a Democrat House investigating and impeaching anything and everything.

Yet, piracy by a non-state, state actor, the Houthi’s is sending signals that non-state piracy in the Straits of Malaka, Panama Canal approaches, and even on the high seas may get little attention. Europe seems to be unaware - well, unable to act. Piracy is tricky — let it exist one place and it seems to spread. Our Navy is capable of stopping it — if given the OK.

The IDF have given us an opening with the Houthi’s sponsors (Iran and Russia supplying intelligence updates on ship locations), and we are now pursuing it in many ways. I would not dissect anything anyone is saying too closely. Let’s not parse yet.

JCPOA was a charade of hope (typical Obama, Rashid Kahlidi interpretations). It was nearly a decade ago. It was to end soon. Let’s face facts. It was a compromise from A-Z and funded destabilizing forces in the Middle East.

What is going on here today that is somewhat different from a decade ago is we are negotiating with China, Russia, and N. Korea when we talk with Tehran. The four horseman have overlapping and different goals and affinities. That affects the outcome too. The answer is regime change in Tehran — and no one has a plan for that. So we talk, … and talk, … and talk, and rattle swords, … and talk.

I am not at all optimistic about these negotiations. But we should be setting the time schedule and they should not drag on too long. 1. Nukes, 2. ICBM’s and missile development and proliferation, 3. Houthi/el Shabab piracy. 4. Terrorist support. These are the issues. The Trump administration inherited a mess — they have an about 12 months to clean it up. My bet is 40% chance we reduce their nuclear stock piles and missile manufacturing to rubble. 40% we strike some kind of inadequate deal, but ‘best-we-can-get’ deal short of shooting.

And a 20% chance we are in some nether world of chaos. Chaos seems to be favored, even if it is a long shot because negotiating with Iran is negotiating with yourself until you put a gun to their head, and even then, … what can we offer that is better than 40 virgins, … ? Tehran is brazen, and they have Russia, China, and N. Korea trading help for oil.

Expand full comment
David Galinsky's avatar

Wow, Ms. Pletka, this was one of your most substantial posts, full of important things and an important voice--Eliot Abrams. Trump 45's list is the end goal and is more attainable now that ever.

You are proving yourself indispensable. Thanks. Take care.

P.S. wasn't Eliot Abrams one of those accused of leading Reagan around by the nose?

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts