#WTH America hasn't changed

Ignore the poseurs who tell you she has

[A] pure democracy, by which I mean a society consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the government in person, can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will, in almost every case, be felt by a majority of the whole; a communication and concert result from the form of government itself; and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party or an obnoxious individual. Hence it is that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths. Theoretic politicians, who have patronized this species of government, have erroneously supposed that by reducing mankind to a perfect equality in their political rights, they would, at the same time, be perfectly equalized and assimilated in their possessions, their opinions, and their passions.

A republic, by which I mean a government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect, and promises the cure for which we are seeking.

— James Madison, Federalist No. 10

I dare say that Madison understood better than many today the evils of the mob in a democracy, the fell influence of the power behind social media, and the perniciousness of “violence of faction.” So it is, in 2025, that we have been persuaded that the average American cares about the predations of Jeffrey Epstein, that he frets about the firing of 1300 State Department bureaucrats, and that he disdains the travails of others in this world.

If the prism through which you regard the state of the union is X; if Tucker Carlson is your prophet; if Elon Musk’s views on anything at all are your lodestar; or conversely, if you think the people must seize “the means of production;” if trans-rights are “human rights;” if you believe America is descending into “authoritarianism;” … if any of these things are central to how you think about the world, and the United States, then you are the “faction” of which Madison spoke. There may be more of you, there may be less of you, but you are not an avatar of democracy. Au contraire, you are the flotsam that floats on the tide, washing in and out, still believing it is you who moves the water.

Rather grand for a Monday morning, but that’s what you get with a little time away: perspective.

To put this argument another way, it is time to stop crediting the self-proclaimed spokesmen and women of the left and right — the Tuckers and the Zohrans — and start remembering that America is at once a more sophisticated, and, in a good way, a much simpler nation than they suggest. The vast mass do not wish to make Marx our new God. They do not wish to resurrect Hitler. They do not care about Epstein, or transpeople — except insofar as they hope to defeat our daughters on the turf; they do not wish to have open borders, and they do not wish to strip ugly Americans of their citizenship. They are, for lack of a better word, normal.

I write this not to underscore my dislike for the loudmouths of the left and right, but to suggest, rather, that they are full of it. And once again, our friend Roger Zakheim, the Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, has the Institute’s indispensable summer poll to prove it. He joined Marc and me on the pod to talk about the results, and they’re a stark reminder that what you hear in the echo chambers bears precious little relationship to reality.

Some highlights (taken verbatim from the survey):

• The survey shows a 24-point increase since 2022 in Americans who believe the United States should be more engaged and take the lead in international events, including majorities of Republicans (69 percent) and self-identified MAGA Republicans (73 percent).

• The #1 geopolitical concern is Iran, with 84 percent who want to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons, and 45 percent who support Israel conducting targeted airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. (The survey was conducted prior to both Israeli and US strikes on Iran.)

• A bipartisan majority (71 percent) believes the security of Israel matters to U.S. security and prosperity.

• 55 percent oppose withdrawal from NATO, with 59 percent support increasing the U.S. troop presence in Eastern Europe, and 71 percent—including majorities of both parties—support using American military force to defend NATO allies if attacked.

• 75 percent say a war between China and Taiwan would matter to U.S. security and prosperity, and 70 percent would support the U.S. taking military action to defend Taiwan if China were to invade or blockade the island.

• 83 percent said the United States should stand up for human rights and democracy around the world. This includes 87 percent of Democrats and 81 percent of Republicans.

• A majority says American international engagement benefits both the U.S. (66 percent) and the world (67 percent), with 85 percent viewing a strong military as essential to peace and prosperity.

• 73 percent of Americans believe the war between Ukraine and Russia matters to US security, and 58 percent want Ukraine to win (vs 7 percent on Russia’s side).

In short, this is not the country that any of the self-appointed spokesmen of the left or right, of MAGA, or anything else, suggest that it is. Rather, America is the country that it has always been: reluctant to entangle itself in foreign wars, cautious about long-term commitments, but more than anything else, committed to allies, to principles of democracy and freedom, compassionate towards the world, and very capable of sorting what matters from what does not.

PS Roger makes an additional terrific point; during the Biden administration, it appeared that many Americans rejected Biden’s vision of engagement with the world. Some mistook that as rejection for engagement overall; but what they really rejected was the way Biden wanted to engage, not the notion of engagement. Pretty interesting.

HIGHLIGHTS

Q: Are Americans isolationists?

RZ: The headline here, and we've talked about this when I had the opportunity to join you in the past, is that yes, Americans are not isolationists. They absolutely want America leading in the world. What I think is the most fascinating takeaway in addition to where you focus, Marc, which is sort of the mindset of MAGA Republicans, is that overall, Americans want to be more engaged than they did last year and the year before.

In other words, we're in a moment, and I think this is worthy of discussion, where Americans are like, "I want the US to lead now, and I feel more strongly about that today than I did prior to January 2025." It's the highest numbers we've seen. 64% overall want the US to be more engaged and lead, then the entire time we've asked this question, which goes back to 2021. And so to me and I tend to reduce things to leadership, it's the sort of leadership that President Trump is offering that is motivating people that had been on the sidelines in terms of what America should be doing in the world. And of course, that refers to Republicans and in particular, as you've pointed out, Marc, MAGA Republicans.

Q: Can you give us the numbers on this rejection of isolationism?

RZ: What I was just referencing in terms of wanting to lead in the world, it was 64% overall. That's up from 54% a year ago. And if you go back to February '21, it was 51%. I'll tell you another one that really we focus on here at the Reagan Institute obviously is a big part of President Reagan's legacy that we think matters to America, has mattered in the past, and should matter in our future, which is what foreign policy principles should we be promoting. And strong US military, kind of essential for peace and prosperity is a question we ask. Overall there it's this number of, I'm just pulling it up here, 85% in June, and so that's overall, but that's consistently been 86%, 85%.

If you go back to June 2023, not surprisingly, 93% of Republicans want to have strong military is essential for peace and prosperity, but Democrats are at 80%. I'll give you another one that perhaps is less intuitive given the moment we're in. And Dany here, I'm referring to what President Trump said in Riyadh, which he said, "Okay, our interests are stability, prosperity, and peace." No mention of freedom, no mention of democracy. Well, actually, Americans support standing up for human rights and democracy, including 81% of Republicans polled. So a values-driven foreign policy is also something that we see in this survey Americans care deeply about.

Q: What about MAGA Republicans?

MT: So what I find fascinating about this, and we'll stay broad, but I want to get into the MAGA discussion, is that MAGA Republicans are more internationalist than the American people in general, and they're more internationalist and more hawkish and less isolationist than establishment Republicans, which is so counterintuitive, because everyone, if you listen to the isolationist right, "Oh, the NeoCon warmongers from the Republican establishment want drag us into foreign wars and want to do all this stuff abroad. And the isolationist MAGA movement," or restrictionist, I guess they call themselves now, because they don't like the term isolationist, "Is pushing-

RZ: Restrainers, the restrained

MT: Restrainer, yeah, the restrainers. That's right. "The restrainers are pushing..." And the story is the opposite in terms of the voters. The restrainers are a tiny, tiny minority and the MAGA people are ready to go and kick some ass. What's going on there?

RZ: The restrainers are the minority. They have an outsized voice. We've talked about this before. They make a lot of noise. They get far more attention in terms of relative to what element of the party they represent. They misinterpreted the American people overall. They believe that, hey, Americans don't want to be engaged in the world. What actually I think has been happening, and our survey shows this, is that really Americans weren't excited about the policy of President Biden. For four years they were unhappy with President Biden's policy. As a result, they don't want America to lead with that policy, but it doesn't mean that Americans actually don't want to be engaged in the world. And so when there is a president comes in with a policy of support, especially MAGA voters, they want to be engaged in the world.

RZ:They don't want that limited to what's in the borders of our country or sort of withdraw from the world stage. Not at all, which goes to your point. But it is interesting, and this is a sort of a dynamic maybe plays to Dany's skepticism here a little bit, which is Republican voters and particularly MAGA voters swing in terms of the level of engagement and the sort of things they want the US to do in the world. They would not be supportive of a Joe Biden foreign policy. And as a result, they may adopt an isolationist outlook with that sort of leadership. When it's President Trump, then absolutely, let's go on and lead.

Q: What were your findings on support for Israel?

RZ: In terms of the security of Israel, overall support for that, it's 71% across the board. And then with respect, we asked this question and should have noted this at the outset that we conducted the survey came out of the field on June 2nd. So you have about more than a week before Israel began its strike on the Iranian nuclear program. So all these respondents are coming in before they knew a strike would actually occur. Fortunately, we asked, would you support an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear program? And we saw the highest numbers came from Republicans. And it was approaching almost 60%. I think it was 59% is the number that comes to mind.

So you saw overwhelming support on the Republican side and the majority overall who supported Israel carrying out a strike on Iran. Now, we didn't ask the question that was a question President Trump had to deal with, which was, okay, should the United States get in on the strikes? But we did ask, giving him a variety of issues, what were they most concerned about, including the Iranian or preventing Iran from a nuclear weapons program? And that was just a shocking number to me. 84% of respondents said they were most concerned about Iran's nuclear weapons program outperforming in terms of what Americans were concerned about Russia and Ukraine or China and Taiwan and MAGA Republicans. Marc, and you put this in your column outperformed 84%. They were knocking on 90% in this survey.

Q: Do these findings ring true for younger demographics?

RZ: We polled 1,257 adults and they applied sort of weights to make sure we had a good feel for the different demographics. Beyond that, I didn't do well in statistics, so I can't tell you whether or not that captures the 18 to 30 demographic accurately or if it is sort of undersurveyed. But I think it's a fair statement that is a demographic we need to be concerned about if the sort of outcomes here are ones that we feel are right and we ought to support. And that's sort of a drag overall and it's certainly not limited to Democrats, though I think that's where that population, if they had to choose a side, would land for the most part.

Q: How does MAGA feel about Trump’s tariffs, despite their rejection of protectionism?

RZ: We asked a question of do you favor a kind of tariff towards a more free market approach or sort of like a short-term tariff in order to, I interpret it to reduce barriers ultimately, ratcheting up to bring things down versus the protectionism. And so yes, there's definitely support for the president's use of tariffs to promote trade and boost our economy and realize fairness. Like 85% say US leadership is essential in that regard and 66% think the US would favor this sort of free market approach of leveraging tariffs. So that's a real boon to President Trump's approach. I mean, I think colleagues at the American Enterprise Institute, it's cringe-worthy that anyone would sort of entertain and stomach a tariff if you thought of yourself as a free trader.

So President Trump's got a lot of support there. I think where that support, where our survey shows sort of wanes is if those tariffs are intended to be permanent. If it's an end, not a means, and when it's an end not a means, then I think you see it tail off. With the exception of China. I think it's very important that as it relates to China, if those suckers last in perpetuity, game on. Because throughout the survey we see Americans of all stripes supportive of challenging and competing against China from a security standpoint, also economically.

Q: Post DOGE, how does MAGA feel about funding freedom promotion programs?

RZ: One thing that was a question in here that I don't know if sort of got your attention, but we did ask it sort of this, DOGE was in the backdrop here, but support for funding programs and organizations designed to advance freedom and democracy abroad, getting at the National Endowment for Democracy, which of course came out of the Reagan administration and President Reagan's Westminster speech, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, all these entities that were sort of the softer way in which the US advances freedom, particularly in countries where people are oppressed and they don't have freedom denied countries. Interesting thing here is that overall there was 57% support in our survey of freedom promotion programs and amongst Republicans, the number was 52%. Even in this environment of DOGE and fair critique of USAID, there was still majority support by Republicans for freedom promotion programs like the NED.

Q: On NATO, where is MAGA on Article V and the 5% spending commitment?

A: The one sort of outcome of the survey, we asked the questions and the data is what it is, openness to withdrawing from NATO. That surprised me. We asked, would you support or oppose withdrawing the US from NATO? And the total support of withdrawing was 33%, but you got over 50% called Republicans. So it is a reflection of all this baggage. Dany, as you said, the Biden hangover, but also sort of the president's two-pronged approach to dealing with Russian aggression. On the one hand, "Hey, you got to fend for yourself." On the other hand, we're not going to let an adversary of the United States have his way and certainly reflect poorly and undermine US national security. But the walking away from NATO, which again, now here we are the end of June with the NATO summit, we're going to see a lot of embrace and support for NATO given that the Alliance has taken on this 5% of GDP commitment to national defense.

Q: When it comes to China, how hawkish is MAGA?

RZ: This idea that MAGA is, if we're dealing adversarial and they're messing with our interests, we're ready to go. And other Republicans that perhaps take the more establishment, pure, almost, "Hey, let's look for other means of solving that problem or just not solving it." The Taiwan piece as you point out, Marc, is really interesting because it's not victim of the partisanship, So you are just kind of parsing how Republicans play out. It's still a majority of Republicans and MAGA is even stronger than non-MAGA Republicans, but this is a major foreign policy national security issue that remains a bipartisan, sort of agreed-upon problem that the United States has a competition, an adversary in China, and they're concerned about it and they're prepared to support military action against it.

So the numbers came out 70% overall, 75% Democrats, 70% Republicans. When you give them a little more detail about what's at stake, those numbers really go up overall. It's the undecideds that really kind of weigh down this number, but it's still 70%. So Taiwan for the most part, should look at this survey and feel like, yeah, they get the backing of a bipartisan super majority of Americans.

Full Transcript here

SHOWNOTES:

2025 Reagan Institute Summer Survey (Reagan Foundation, June 22, 2025)

Trump’s military attack on Iran reveals split among Maga diehards (The Guardian, Edward Helmore, June 22, 2025)

Are the MAGA Isolationists losing influence over Trump’s Iran deliberations? (The Guardian, Andrew Roth, June 21, 2025)

Iran strikes push Vance, a foreign intervention skeptic, into the role of salesman (NBC News, Henry Gomez, June 22, 2025)

MAGA is divided over Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. Will it last? (The Washington Post, Hannah Knowles, Cat Zakrzewski, Clara Ence Morse, June 22, 2025)

Trump’s Political Calculus on Iran (The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russel Mead, June 23, 2025)

How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term (Pew Research Center, Laura Silver, April 8, 2025)

Young Americans continue to have mixed views about Hamas and Israel, per poll (The New York Post, Jewish News Syndicate, April 3, 2025)