We talked to former Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger on the pod this week. The Chinese-speaking former journalist, former Marine, and current Asia strategist had some worrying things to say… really, really worrying.
We’ve all been watching Russia’s war on Ukraine, not just from DC but from Tehran, Pyongyang and Beijing. But not all of us are drawing the same conclusions. The way Matt sees it, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have thrown their lots in together, with Putin very much the junior partner. This is new; while China has played the game of international cooperation in recent decades, there is now a decisive split.
What does it all mean for the United States? First, it means that Xi is seriously thinking about invading Taiwan… possibly even this year. Second, it means that China is going to help Russia in its Ukraine war. Third, it means that the two are well into the process of constructing a counter-balance to American power in the world. Are we ready? Not even close. Are we providing a deterrent? Nope. On the tech side, the supply chain side, the armaments side, are we protecting ourselves and our friends? Nah. In short, we are not ready for a new Cold War. And certainly not a hot war.
There is time for the United States to step up, but it’s going to require a change in attitude at home about the threats we face. This isn’t alarmism; Matt’s read Xi’s secret speeches laying out his intentions for China and his avowal that in order to achieve his larger aims, it will be worth suffering the destruction of the China we now know. That’s not just rhetoric… that’s the kind of promise that Putin made about Ukraine (and Hitler made about Germany). The West must be better prepared to believe the threats these dictators throw down. And act.
Listen to the whole thing, it’s really worth your time.
HIGHLIGHTS
(yep, a lot this week, but especially if you can’t listen to the pod, check out the details below)
Pottinger: So, this term Cold War is for some people, contentious… There are, a lot of people understandably, [who] have wanted to avoid admitting that we're really in some kind of a Cold War construct again, except with the roles of Russia and China reversed, right? With China really as sort of the giant power, and the Russians in the junior partner role. But I mean, a Cold War is, it's a long-term strategic competition, right? It's a competition between nuclear-armed great powers that for whom military power is extremely important. Of course, there's a risk of a head-on confrontation militarily between the nuclear-armed great powers, but both sides in the first Cold War, as in the second, have an interest in trying to constrain the competition to non-military decisive means, so really competing in terms of technology and economic might, ideological and informational power.
Pottinger: China is at least on the verge of providing [Russia] material, military and financial support. It's clear that this is something that has caught the sharp attention of President Biden and the West. President Biden had a long phone conversation with Xi Jinping to warn the Chinese leader that if China decides to support Russia's effort more than it already is, in other words, to provide material support, not just ideological, propaganda and international UN-type support, which China's already providing that this that's going to be a tipping point, a potential rupture point, really in relations between China and the West.
Pottinger: I had a conversation with one of my former colleagues, who actually thinks we're closer to something more like what he called World War II 2.0, then we are to Cold War 2.0. It's very much in our interest to try to prevent the direct military conflict from spilling over into a direct confrontation between the NATO allies or our treaty allies in Asia and Russia or China, but it's certainly possible. That's why we need to be, we need to be prepared for that. We've got a better chance of deterring the military conflict if we do what Winston Churchill taught us time and again. As late as the late 19th Century… he was writing about how important it is for the West to maintain its technological edge.
Pottinger: …if we were to apply a Cold War model, the logic of that model instructs us to be a lot more serious than we've been about trying to prevent Beijing from acquiring technologies that can be used not only for commercial, but also military advantage. …we've, in sort of a piecemeal way kind of hacked at it for decades, but it's really been a battle that we've been losing. So, we've got to redouble those efforts. I think that a Cold War, in the current era doesn't require necessarily a wholesale decoupling between our societies, but it does mean doing far, far more than we are to prevent Beijing from acquiring those dual-use technologies, which they've had a rather easy time acquiring through cyber theft, through infiltration of our laboratories.
Pottinger: Well, it's obvious that both Putin and Xi Jinping badly miscalculated the Western response to the war that Putin launched, and which Beijing is underwriting in Europe, in Ukraine. They both thought it would be easier, no doubt, than the fight has been and thought that European and trans-Atlantic solidarity would not measure up to what it has measured up to. So, that can be helpful if we follow up, and try to help Ukraine deliver a decisive victory.
Pottinger: I think one of the lessons of the Korean War is that we want to deliver a decisive victory. That doesn't mean that US troops should be firing shots at Russian troops, but what it means is helping Ukraine see this thing through, in a way that is really decisive, and it sends a message about some of the other fantasies or designs that those two leaders, that the Ayatollah has, that Beijing has toward Taiwan.
Pottinger: Why not just aim to win? I would be doing a couple of things. One, is that even as we rush munitions and supplies to Ukraine, and I think we should be doing everything possible to facilitate that the arsenals of other NATO members get front- loaded into this fight, right, we should be doing the same thing with, for Taiwan right now. We've seen, there was a rumor ofan FSB leak that Beijing … was going to move on Taiwan later this year, which is conceivable. It is conceivable. So, we're already in the window of danger for Taiwan. So, why not ensure that we are cranking out munitions, so that we show that we are able, that Taiwan is able, just as we want to show and demonstrate that our European friends are able to sustain a long-term costly fight if, for Putin and for Xi Jinping alike, if she takes such a big step as invading Taiwan.
Pottinger: A lot of Xi Jinping speeches have leaked over the years, some important portions of some of his most important speeches. Other speeches, some of his most aggressive speeches kept secret for a time. But, then dribbled out in Chinese, theoretical journals in Chinese language only, after the news cycle has sort of moved on. So, you end up with …this very unfortunate situation where you have Western news outlets that are falling over themselves to Xi Jinping's address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, but completely miss far more important speeches that, as one example, the speech that Xi Jinping gave in November of last year to the 6th Plenum, where he viewed 100 years of Chinese Communist Party history.
Pottinger: So, when they finally did release that speech in Chinese language, on a holiday, it was on New Year's Day, January 1st, no one picked it up. …I think governments missed it. I know the press missed it completely. I still haven't seen any writing about that speech, but the speech is pregnant with intention, and with the world view that Xi Jinping has honed in his 10 years in power, and which he was honing before he came to power. He talks about the Korean War at length. The speech is profoundly anti-American, just like the 5,000-word communicate that Xi and Putin signed on the 4th of February — mentions the United States in a very negative light, about a half a dozen times.
Pottinger: …he quotes Mao throughout the speech at length. He quotes Mao's foresight and bravery in launching the so-called Chinese volunteers to go fight the United States on the Korean Peninsula, along with our UN allies, who were fighting alongside of us. He talks about the idea, quoting Mao, that we should have the courage to destroy our country internally, in order to rebuild it anew, to ruin the country is the word he uses. In other words, to ruin China, in order to rebuild it anew, that we shouldn't be afraid of that. We shouldn't be afraid of throwing one punch now, in order to avoid 100 punches later.
Pottinger: Well, I think he's gearing up to invade Taiwan. I do. I think that we're in that wind of danger now, and that he is someone who talks a lot about taking decisive steps and not waiting. So, he's someone who is very patient when it came to building his own power. He's very patient in cultivating the relationships he needed to cultivate, to ultimately climb the ladder to the pinnacle of power in China. He's not in a patient mode anymore. That's, the patient time is now passed, if we were to believe what he's saying, when he's speaking in his own language to his own party leadership. So, what that tells me is that we need our business leaders to pay very, very close attention to the possibility that we are going to be in a head-on conflict or in a series of proxy fights, proxy wars, launched, not by us.
Pottinger: Remember, we didn't, just like the first Cold War, we didn't pick this one. This was started by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin and some of their supporting role players like the Ayatollah, to a lesser extent, Kim Jong-un in Korea. But, we are now facing an actual war in Europe that is being underwritten by Xi Jinping, and prosecuted by Vladimir Putin. If that's not a wake up call to Volkswagen to start coming up with a new business model that doesn't rely entirely on the Chinese market, or Apple to, if that doesn't wake up Apple to start finding alternatives to its supply chain, besides China, then those companies are going to go the way of the dodo, eventually.
Pottinger: What's good for Apple, and what's good for Volkswagen are no longer necessarily what's good for America or for Germany respectively. So, smart business leaders are right now going to be taking the signals that we're seeing, and hedging rapidly to ensure that their businesses can survive in a Cold War framework that in, that features proxy wars.
Dany: Just a quick question that you said this several times and neither Marc and I have pressed you on it. You keep saying Vladimir Putin is fighting a war in Ukraine that is being underwritten by Xi Jinping. What do you mean by that?
Pottinger: Well, look at the agreement that they drew grew up on the fourth of February. It's clear that China had the heavy pen in that draft, because you have Vladimir Putin agreeing for the first time to a lot of language that is Xi Jinping's language, Xi Jinping's worldview, a community of common destiny for mankind, his view of great power relations. So, you have Vladimir Putin there as the supplicant. You have Vladimir Putin at disfavorable terms, agreeing to finally provide the bulk of his gas supplies to China, something that Gazprom CEOs have resisted doing for a very long time. You have an agreement by Xi to sign on at the same time, to some of Vladimir Putin's language. For example, this idea that NATO is a threat to global stability, when it's actually a defensive alliance that has maintained global stability for seven or eight decades, right?
Pottinger: You have an agreement, that we know from some of the reported intelligence leaks, and our press, that Xi had clearly known that Putin was planning to invade. They talked about the timing of an invasion. So, you really have an agreement that Beijing's going to be there as the backstop, the one who's going to continue buying Russian gas, the one who is going to provide cover at the United nations, who's going to provide propaganda support for Russian. Of course, all of that has played out exactly as that document suggested it would, all of it. Now we also have a word that Beijing's considering sending military supplies, as well as direct financial support, which is why you've had this emergency flurry of diplomacy by the National Security Advisor, and then the President himself, calling their Chinese counterparts, meeting with their Chinese counterparts.
Pottinger: So, it's clear that these two have decided to really throw in their lot with one another, with Vladimir Putin as the junior partner, and with Xi Jinping, clearly prepared to call in all sorts of favors from Putin when the time comes, with respect to Taiwan.
Pottinger: I think it's entirely conceivable that he attacks Taiwan this year. It's also conceivable that he decides to wait another few years until he thinks that certain other capabilities have come into place or that the conditions are more optimal. We just don't know. We don't know. What we need to be doing is providing ammunition, training and other material support to Taiwan. We need to make sure that NATO allies and our, and other countries around the world are prepared to condemn and sanction China, just the way that they have shown the willingness to sanction and condemn Russia, over Russia's attack of Ukraine.
Find the whole transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
“Beijing’s American Hustle,” by Matt Pottinger (Foreign Affairs, 9/21-10/21)
“Russia, China and the New Cold War,” by Adam O’Neal (WSJ, 3/18/22)
“Xi Jinping is Vladimir Putin’s co-conspirator in Ukraine,” by Josh Rogin (The Washington Post, 3/10/22)
“Former U.S. security officials urge Congress to act on China legislation,” (Reuters, 2/1/22)
“China's Vice Foreign Minister blames NATO for war in Ukraine,” (Axios, 3/19/22)
“After Biden-Xi call, U.S. warns China it could face sanctions if it backs Russia in Ukraine,” (Reuters, 3/18/22)
“U.S. Will Punish China if It Gives Military Aid to Russia, Blinken Says,” (NYT, 3/17/22)
“Russia Asked China for Military and Economic Aid for Ukraine War, U.S. Officials Say,” (NYT, 3/13/22)
“China unsettled by Ukraine, but don't underestimate Xi's Taiwan resolve -CIA head,” (Reuters, 3/8/22)
“Readout of President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China,” (The White House, 3/18/22)
“Statement by Press Secretary Jen Psaki on President Biden’s Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China,” (The White House, 3/17/22)
“CNN State of the Union,” (CNN, 3/13/22)
“We need to level the playing field with China and other competitors. That’s why it’s so important to pass the Bipartisan Innovation Act. It will make record investments in emerging technologies, American manufacturing, and innovation. Send it to my desk. I’ll sign it.” (Twitter, President Biden, 3/1/22)
“The friendship between China and Russia has boundaries,” (The Economist, 3/19/22)
“Chinese ambassador: Where we stand on Ukraine,” by Qin Gang (The Washington Post, 3/15/22)