Three takeaways from this week’s pod with Power Hungry’s Robert Bryce:
We’re struggling for power because plants are closing down across the country (thanks John Kerry)
Renewables can’t match the requirements for energy in the United States. Period.
Some inconvenient facts:
Wind generates one watt per square meter of land use.
Solar generates 10 watts.
Nuclear generates 10,000.
No matter where you stand on the political spectrum, for most of us in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s 🔥 outside. But the most developed countries in the world can’t switch on the AC across the board because the electric grids can’t take it. Coal plants are closing down across the United States; natural gas is being rationed in Europe as prices skyrocket; wind farms and solar fields can’t generate enough juice to cool us. And the most reliable sources of clean energy — nuclear power plants — are closing down almost everywhere. It’s enough to make you ask What the Hell is Going On?
In theory, adults in the room across Europe and in the United States would look at the crisis and reconsider their mad rush to renewables… In theory, adults in the room would stop the shuttering of coal plants until they knew a reliable new source of energy was coming online… In theory, green new deal enthusiasts would recognize there isn’t enough land to install enough renewable sources to power existing demand, let alone demand when we all get a Tesla. (We are all getting a Tesla, right?)
Of course, those self-same adults might have recognized that tethering Europe to Russian energy supplies was a bad idea. That supply chains for many renewables start in… China. Worse yet, in Xinjiang. That choking off U.S. energy independence might be a bad idea… But of course, there are no adults in the room; only fanatics for whom the facts and the reality of energy supplies are inconvenient truths. (Sorry, Al.)
Listen to the whole podcast, we learned a ton. Don’t hesitate to share your comments.
HIGHLIGHTS
What’s the view from 30,000 feet?
Bryce: We're in a global electricity crisis. If you think the US is in bad shape, I mean, look at Western Europe. I mean, they are in dire straits and we're in summertime here, but the winter looms large in Europe, and they are facing a crisis on multiple levels. And they're not going to have enough natural gas. They don't have enough coal. …[T]hey're paying 6X for natural gas in Europe what we are in the United States.
How did we get here?
Bryce: [W]hat is causing this? Overdependence on renewables, overdependence on just in time natural gas, overdependence on imports and we're closing our base load power plants. This is a recipe for disaster. We're following Europe over the cliff. And there doesn't seem to be much in the way of understanding of this among the top leaders in Washington.
It’s not just a coal crisis…
Bryce: … it's not just coal. Remember, the Indian Point Nuclear Plant in New York was shuttered last year, which again, a foolish move of the first order. I'm pro natural gas, but since that plant closed, it's been replaced by natural gas. Well, there's a bias that we thought that, "Oh, natural gas prices are going to stay low for a long time." Well, they were low for a long time, but no longer. And now we're having insufficient amount of investment in the upstream and drilling so we don't have enough gas to meet domestic demand and to supply Europe.
What are the politicians doing?
Bryce: This is such an opportunity for the Democrats. This could be the Nixon goes to China moment, saying, "We're going to go all in on nuclear. We realize there's no way to get there with renewables." It's part of almost, I would say, a religious philosophy within the biggest NGO groups on the left and the climate activist groups not to embrace nuclear. Now, there are some cracks in that. And some of the climate activist groups are saying, "Yes, we need nuclear," but by and large, that's just not the case with the biggest environmental groups, Sierra Club, NRDC, et cetera.
Are other countries finding solutions?
Bryce: So back to Britain. Rolls-Royce, there's a very old line of industrial company with close ties to the British government. They're rolling out a new SMR, small modular reactor … the power density is 10,000 Watts per square meter. That's 10,000 times greater than the power density of wind. It's a thousand times greater than the power density of solar. That matters because particularly in the UK, but also here in the US, we don't have a lot of extra land on which to site any kind of energy infrastructure. So power density is key. And that's one of the reasons why I'm so in favor of nuclear is that it's power density is unsurpassed. So if we're serious about reducing CO2, we have to be serious about nuclear…
NIMBY is back too?
Bryce: I've been maintaining the renewable rejection database. It's on my website, robertbryce.com. The count is now of 344 communities from Maine to Hawaii have rejected a restricted wind project since 2013. I mean, 344. Some of the latest, there were a dozen communities in Butler County, Ohio just in the last few days that petitioned the county and the county said these are restricted areas. And these townships, these 12 town ships, no large wind, no large solar. So the backlash against the encroachment of big wind and big solar is happening coast to coast, but it doesn't fit this convenient narrative around, "Oh, wind and solar they're green and that they're cheaper."
Why is “power density” relevant?
Bryce: … it's axiomatic as the lower the power density, the higher the resource intensity. So with wind energy, one watt per square meter is the power density full stop, end of the story … Solar's a little better, 10 Watts per square meter, but it's no match for nuclear at a thousand Watts, or even in the Rolls-Royce, 10,000 Watts per square meter So the more you have high power density, the higher the power density, the less stuff you need to make large quantities of energy.
Is coal back?
Bryce: What we're seeing now is this rush to coal all over the world, particularly in China and India, they've announced in May and April respectively, I think, that they were going to increase their coal consumption by 300 million and 400 million tons, respectively … you add them together that's 700 million tons of new coal production, new coal incremental growth in coal production per year from those two countries. Well, according to EIA burning a ton of coal produced about two tons of CO2. Well, so the math is so easy I can do it. 700 million tons of coal that will equal 1.4 billion tons of new CO2 emissions from those two countries alone. That cancels out, or as I say in the piece, obliterates all of the emissions reductions achieved in the United States since 2005. I mean this is just staggering increase.
Bryce: The Netherlands, Austria, Germany all have announced that they're either refurbishing their existing gas plants and reverting to coal, but it's a mad rush to coal. But there's a challenge here as well in that there simply is enough coal to go around. The coal mines around the world are running flat out … we've seen coal prices, quadruple.
Everything starts in China…
Bryce: [S]upply chains for the solar sector are heavily dependent on China, depending on whose numbers you use. I think the State Department puts the solar polysilicon supply globally - 70% of it comes out of China. And a big percentage of that comes from Xinjiang province where the State Department last year declared that the Chinese government is practicing genocide against the Uyghur Muslim minority. And so there was a prohibition on the importation of products from Xinjiang, not just solar, but solar related products, but other things as well. But I think more broadly to just zoom out a little bit what's important to remember is that whether it's electric vehicles, or solar panels, or the magnets that go in wind turbines, or the batteries that go in electric cars, the supply chains for all of those are heavily dependent on China
Are we all becoming Californians?
Bryce: [O]ne of the things that's happening in California are bans on natural gas, like the Los Angeles, and the city of Los Angeles, in fact, just banned the use of natural gas in new construction, new homes, et cetera. The power grid in California can't handle the demand that's on it now, why are they thinking that they're going to add yet more demand? And in particular with electric vehicles, this push toward EVs, particularly in California, overlooks the gargantuan amount of energy that we consume in the form of liquid hydrocarbons and the form of diesel and gasoline. So this idea, "Oh, we'll just build out the grid." In California, the electric rates in California have increased at five times the rate of the rest of the US over the last decade and a half. It's incredibly regressive what is happening in California, which by the way, has the highest poverty rate in America. So California's not the model to follow for the United States. In fact, it is a disastrous model that they're closely tracking Europe and it's going to end in tears.
Find the whole transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
A summer of blackouts? Wheezing power grid leaves states at risk, Evan Halper, The Washington Post, June 2, 2022
In Pandering to the Green Left, Biden Is Underwriting China's Genocide of Uyghurs, Robert Bryce, Newsweek, June 9, 2022
Families to be paid to use less electricity under plan to avoid power blackouts, Independent, June 27, 2022
Amid possible blackouts, Illinois lawmakers call for scrapping ‘Green New Deal’, The Center Square, June 20, 2022
Rolls-Royce’s SMR Needs 10,000 Times Less Land Than Wind Energy, Proves ‘Iron Law Of Power Density’, Robert Bryce, Forbes, May 27th 2022
Possible Heat Deaths Under Investigation, Hundreds of Thousands Without Electricity as Extreme Temperatures Grip Midwest, Jan Wesner Childs, The Weather Channel, June 15, 2022
California Is Impoverishing Its Low-Income Residents With Electricity Prices, Robert Bryce, Newsweek, May 5, 2022