WTH: Connecting the Russia, China, & Ukraine dots

A masterclass with Gen. Jack Keane. Very much worth your time.

Feb 23, 2023

It’s a big natsec news week, what with the Chinese balloon, the four other random balloons, the Munich Security Conference, Biden’s trip to Ukraine (and Poland!), an especially insane speech by Putin and a strange accusation from SecState Tony Blinken that Beijing might maybe be thinking possibly of providing lethal aid to Russia. To cut to the chase, three things from our pod with General Keane:

With the right equipment Ukraine can defeat Russia within a year.
The balloon fiasco was a sign of weakness to China, and the Biden administration still doesn’t get that it screwed up.
Disinvestment in defense has made America weaker than at any other critical moment in history. The danger is clear.
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In a piece in The Hill newspaper, longtime DC hand Harlan Ullman wrote that “America’s Ukraine policy needs a Jack Keane.” Why? Because, though the general direction of Biden Ukraine policy is positive — providing the necessary arms to support Ukraine’s defense — the President needs a come to Jesus about the pace of aid, his lack of clarity on the war’s aims, and the general sense of Western dithering about how Ukraine can win faster, better. During the Iraq War, AEI’s own Frederick Kagan and General Keane formulated the policy known as the “surge.” It was an exercise in speaking truth to power, and it changed the course of the then-failing war and led to military victory.

Who is talking to Joe Biden? Who is explaining to the President that U.S. policy needs to be refined, improved, deepened, and explained to the American people? Short answer: No one.

There is a path to victory for Ukraine against Russia, and that path can also include the retaking of Crimea, should the Ukrainians choose it. But at the moment, the United States and its NATO allies are slow-rolling the necessary equipment, including longer range ATACMS, tanks, and fighter aircraft. It’s absolutely clear that the Biden administration remains desperately afraid of a Russian escalation that might bring the war to a NATO ally or the United States. Their reasons for so believing are completely unclear, as not a single change in the quality or quantity of western armaments flowing into Ukraine has spurred a Russian backlash. NOT ONE.

Perhaps there are those who believe a victory for Ukraine is immaterial to the United States, or that we should “focus on China,” to parrot an oft-repeated trope. That’s not right. Rather, the defeat of Putin will be the most effective way to deter Beijing. And there isn’t a single American that needs to fight to do so.

Not persuaded? This week, rather than selecting highlights from a podcast in which General Keane explained just how balloons, Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing are intertwined with American problems and interests, we direct you simply to the transcript.

It’s here.

As always, comments, questions, and suggestions are welcome.