#WTH do Republicans really think?

Results from the Reagan Foundation Poll

Aug 03, 2023

Three things from our pod this week with Washington director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, Roger Zakheim:

Actually, what motivates Americans is freedom.
The support for abandoning Ukraine is much thinner than the press acknowledges.
Someone needs to stare down the specters of Iraq and Afghanistan, and make the case for American leadership.
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More than 75 percent of Americans polled by the Reagan Foundation in their summer survey believe that it’s important to the American national interest that Ukraine win its war against Russia. That number includes substantial numbers of Republicans — 71 percent in fact. Fascinatingly, the number of Republicans supporting the effort skyrockets when they learn the U.S. is expending about 3 percent of its defense budget; that Ukraine holds most of its territory; and that the war is dramatically degrading the Russian military.

So why is no one making the case? Why won’t Joe Biden talk about this? Why does Ron DeSantis attack Donald Trump when he suggests he might support Ukraine? Is it fear? Politics? A misread of the American public? Other priorities? Our guest believes it’s a mix of the above. But he also insists — and the numbers back him up — that the American people are far more for engagement, far more for defending freedom, than most politicians or their apologists in the press will allow.

So… forget about Ukraine for a second. Ask yourselves, what is it that we care about in the world? Not in the most abstract sense, but concretely. Turns out that most Americans believe aggression against a peaceful democracy is a bad thing. Now substitute Taiwan for Ukraine. Still agree that ~~Russia~~ China should not be allowed to get away with attacking and annexing ~~Ukraine~~ Taiwan? You probably do. Because you recognize that when democracies are under attack, it’s only a matter of time before they come for our allies, and then for us. That’s the lesson of history.

And it turns out that our people understand that a whole lot better than our politicians. Or our press. Sigh.

On another note… This is the last of our regular podcasts until Labor Day. But instead of abandoning our faithful listeners, we’re doing a book series: What the hell should you be reading? Stay tuned for the answers starting next week. Happy summer, all!

HIGHLIGHTS

So, you have some new polling out…?

RZ: This is our Reagan summer survey. We're in the field towards the end of June, beginning of July… Over 75% of Americans see that it's in US national interest to have Ukraine win. That includes a boatload of Republicans too. And then when you get to funding, which I'm sure you'll want to talk about, obviously it came up in the recent Defense Authorization Bill, Republicans want to continue funding Ukraine. They think it's worth the cost, and that's the majority of Republicans. And it's held steady, that's the key piece. It hasn't declined like the prevailing narrative on the left and right would want you to believe. Actually consistently, the majority of Republicans want to continue supporting Ukraine with platforms with security assistance.

People sign up to the idea of supporting Ukraine when the case is made. But is it being made?

RZ: Some are doing it. This podcast, your piece in the Washington Post. The Wall Street Journal's been great on this. But to your point, we don't have a president getting out there and making the case. Our speaker of the house has a very delicate majority, so he's not positioned to do this. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, is very active, as you both know, making the case. But at the end of the day, this involves the commander-in-chief. That's where Americans should look to figure out what our priorities are when it comes to national security and foreign policy. And President Biden hasn't prioritized making the case to the American people.

Notwithstanding the President’s silence on Ukraine, the American people are on board. Why?

RZ: We’ve just got to start with the fact that Ukraine has been successful. They've repelled the Russian attack. We were all watching in February of 2022 when that convoy lined up and the prediction was the Russians were going to get to Kyiv. It did not happen. They repelled the attack. So, I think that's one thing Americans like, a winner. Number two, Americans want to be on the side of good. They can see the difference between good and evil. And here, there's no question who's right and who's wrong here. Vladimir Putin's evil. What he's doing in Ukraine is evil. And Americans don't really equivocate on these matters. So, I think those are the two fundamental reasons why Americans are lining up in the way we're discussing.

Reagan, when he was in the White House and a key piece of his legacy and part of it informs why we do this survey here at the Reagan Institute, really felt it was important to take it to the American people, particularly on issues that perhaps at the time polling suggested the American people weren't behind him. Anything about Reykjavík and arms control and things like that, he took it to the American people. When you make the case, they come around. And it's pretty significant that we're seeing these numbers because the prevailing narrative in the media, whether it's MSNBC, Fox, certainly what you see in social media, you both are fighting it every day.

You get people trying to leave the impression that somehow the American people, and particularly conservatives and Republicans, are not behind Ukraine. They don't want to do this. And that's anything but the case. And the recent House votes, which we should talk about, on this matter, and the votes on the Defense Authorization Act, those amendments, actually outperform what we saw in the Reagan survey. In other words, the House of Representatives Republicans outperformed the numbers that we saw on what I thought was a very good Reagan defense survey.

So what is the case the naysayers are making?

RZ: Oftentimes you hear that, "Well, we should oppose it because we can't account for the funding." And so if we were to only audit the funding we give to Ukraine, perhaps that would move people. And that is a thread you see in the congressional debate and often you see articulated by Ukraine skeptics. No doubt, Ukraine has had its struggles with corruption. So, it makes sense people would be looking there. It actually doesn't move the needle at all in terms of making people who support less supportive in the opposite direction. But here's the kicker, Marc, and we've talked about this before, which I think is amazing, and it goes to the point about making the case:

For Republicans who think it's not worth the cost, there are about 41% of Republicans who said it's not worth the cost, if you give them three pieces of information and it's amazing... Here's the three. Ukraine holds 83% of their territory. We've degraded the Russian military, and oh by the way, the total amount of platforms and goods we've given Ukraine amounts to roughly 3% of one year's defense budget. You give them those three pieces of information and there's an 18 point swing for those who don't think it's worth the cost, now they move over to the side that think it is worth the cost. And that to me is incredible. That means 41% go up to way over 50%.

Digging into the poll, it’s not the practical arguments that make the sale, it’s freedom.

RZ: There's no doubt that this polling reveals, and we've seen it elsewhere in work we've done on this, that the American people believe freedom's a good thing and they recognize it's in our national interest. Not only is it in its idealism in some respects, but I think it's also pragmatic that they understand that we're better off as a country, our freedom, our prosperity, our security, if there are free countries, and opposing those and certainly supporting those who are fighting for their freedom. And I think that bears out here. And truly elsewhere in the poll we talk about whether or not international engagement is something American support. And if you put it to the American people in the terms of, "Hey, this is good for a national defense. It's good for our security, economic prosperity," they'll back international engagement every time, approaching over 80%.

Why do you think the President isn’t making this case?

RZ: To me it's one of two things. It's a political liability in their mind that takes them off their message. This is the party that denigrated the war in Afghanistan and Iraq as endless wars, and they don't want to be in any way out maneuvered from holding that position. Or, or possibly it's an and, listen, this is not something that President Biden's good at. I don't see him making many speeches, whether it's a foreign policy issue of consequence or a domestic policy issue of consequence. This is not the president who's getting out there and bringing it to the American people. If there was a time where Joe Biden was a great communicator and can engage with voters and make the case on TV, it seems to have passed him by and that's not where they're investing their time. And it's risky.

But I'd add one other thing here because, to contradict myself on that second theory of the case, it's not like the Secretary of Defense is doing this either. You would think that if there's something that the president doesn't want to do, there's a political risk here, but they're still invested in this, that you would have the Secretary of Defense in the context of the first and most consequential war on the continent of Europe since World War II, he'd be out there making the case. That's not what they're doing either. So, either they don't feel they have the right messenger or they think this message is one that they don't want to bring to their voters, to their base

Now, he's doing good work, as both of you are aware, going out there and working with the NATO allies and engaging, trying to get the aid synchronized and getting support. So, there's stuff that he could point to that he's doing. But on the public affairs side, that hasn't been his role, broadly speaking, as Secretary of Defense and certainly not one that he's leaned into on Ukraine.

So Trump says he supports Zelensky, and DeSantis attacks him. What the hell?

RZ: This is people making bets on an issue they think matters in a primary, clearly. From Vivek to DeSantis, and Trump taking his own unique approach, [they] can't alienate anybody in that MAGA lane. And they're all pretty confident the MAGA Lane will not punish you for opposing Ukraine and possibly reward you. We had visitors from a local Republican club from out west, came to the Reagan Institute and they wanted to talk Ukraine. That was the first issue they wanted to discuss. So, I think party activists are very dialed in on this, and for reasons you guys both know and discuss all the time. Why are we protecting the sovereignty of Ukraine where we can't protect our sovereign borders here at home? That's the sort of thing that really gets the party faithful riled up.

But that's where I really look at the House vote [supporting aid to Ukraine] as quite interesting. Because all those members who voted against the Gaetz and Marjorie Green Taylor amendment and voted to support, they're for Ukraine, they also have to think about primaries. They also have to worry about those elements that are going to support a Vivek in the primary, or a DeSantis. They have to worry about them losing their seat over it. And I think they're growing in confidence. And I had a chance just prior to the vote to have my own little survey of talking to about half a dozen members in the Republican conference.

And there were a number of them that said, "Listen, this is the right thing to do. I'll have to explain this vote away for those who I can't convince, but I'll get through it." And so it's one of these things that, for the party activists in the primary, early stage of the primary, maybe it advantages you, but as you move out to the general, Marc, my sense is you're going to modify that viewpoint and give you space to support Ukraine.

Aren’t we just executing the Reagan Doctrine here? Isn’t that solution for America in the world today?

RZ: If I wouldn't have said an enthusiastic yes to that question, I am working in the wrong place. But it's clear, Marc, that we don't have leaders who can confidently stand for that and articulate that. Or the ones that are leading, they are not leading in the early primary contests here. And that's because I think we haven't had anybody stare down the shadow of Iraq and Afghanistan. And just if we go to the history a little bit here, because you raised it, Reagan did that and it hurt him a little bit, but he did it consistently. And he said, "Listen, the country let down, Washington let down, our troops in Vietnam. But the troops were honorable." And we just haven't had anybody make that case on a national stage. It's been too toxic too soon. And as a result, I think it's exploited. It's just too easy. It's low hanging fruit, whether you're Donald Trump or you're Barack Obama or Joe Biden.

How do we keep the Reagan legacy alive?

RZ: Fundamentally, when you talk about keeping a legacy alive, you're talking about ideas. You're talking about principles and values. And so whether you want to attach those ideas, principles, and values to Reagan, peace through strength, the Reagan Doctrine, or go all the way back to our founding in Hamilton, we just need to take those core ideas, values and principles and the artistry and the work that the American Enterprise Institute does, we're trying to do here, I wish more conservative institutions in DC and across the country were doing, is to tailor them and apply them for today's challenges.

And the Ukraine one is one that's easily done, more easily done. And there's a second one on the political plains. I was just hitting on policy, whether it's free market economics or peace through strength and national defense, American strength. But there's also the way we go about advancing our party and our interests. And here I'm always amazed and pleased by the reception I get. People tell me, "We need more Reagan. We need more of Reagan." And that is the elevated nature in which Reagan engaged in his politics. The enemy for Ronald Reagan, as you both know, was unnamed bureaucrats. It wasn't about left or right, it was about up or down and trying to bring Republicans along. And Democrats.

Full transcript here.