#WTH Does Donald Trump have a plan?

Tariffs, Iran, Gaza, Russia, Ukraine.... and America

Let’s start with the basic premise that some of Donald Trump’s arguments have intrinsic merit. We may not agree with him, but it’s not crazy to want to stop the killing in Ukraine, to rid Gaza of Hamas, to try to level the global trading playing field, to downsize the US government, to tackle the deficit, to try to persuade Iran to end its nuclear weapons programs, etc etc. These are some of the priorities the President has articulated.

We’ve also been trained to take the president “seriously, but not literally.” So when he says he’s going to bomb Hamas, or bomb Iran, or deliver peace between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours, we put that in our Trump translator and reckon he just means that the given policy is important to him. He’s not really planning on bombing Hamas or Iran. (Let’s set aside for another post the question of how foreigners read this Trumpspeak.)

Then there’s the additional wrinkle of the President’s mercurial temper. Does he honestly think Zelensky is a dictator? Is he truly going to fire Mike Waltz? Does he really want to annex Canada? 🤷‍♀️

Most of the analyses of what makes Donald Trump tick, many by former Trump administration officials, are little more than primal screams about their own disappointments. And while there is endless legacy media appetite for these tedious flights of pseudo-psychology about Trump’s failings, most such pieces fail to shed any light on Trump 47.

All that means is that many are still in the dark about Trump’s basic modus operandi. We see what Donald Trump is doing, but we don’t see the connection with the outcome the president insists is coming. And so we must ask, does Donald Trump actually have a plan? Does he know what the hell he is doing?

There’s no point in addressing questions about the president’s intentions sequentially. Everything must now be seen through the prism of last week’s tariff decisions — Liberation Day, if you will — and the economic havoc that has ensued. It’s one thing to say “be patient” about a war ongoing 5,000 miles away, and quite another to say so after $10 trillion is wiped off global markets.

Here’s the problem with the “trust me, I’m from the government” approach that Trump now embraces: We have no idea what his goals are. What “should have been done decades ago”? What does Trump want from the EU? From Taiwan? Australia? Israel? The penguins? Some White House “economists” are insisting that Trump is seeking leverage to ensure that Americans buy stuff made in America. Others tell us that our trading partners need to offload tariff-like barriers like their VATs. Still, others insist that Trump wants to rewrite the global trading system so that the United States has no trade deficits with other nations. Or right the wrong of allowing China into the WTO.

Some of these goals are — set aside feasibility — desirable. Others are, forgive me, nuts. One of my favorite subscribers insists that the injustices of the global trading system mean that he and I insist on our BMWs and Mercedes’ at a concessional price, and stick the poor man with the costs of tariff-free trade. I don’t agree (and neither does Milton Friedman), but from this point of view, perhaps there is a rationale behind Trump’s actions. How about insisting that VATs are tariffs? Is that also something that’s sticking the little man? Or is it economic illiteracy of the first order?

Again, however, I want to reiterate the most basic question: Does Donald Trump know what he’s doing? Is he using a sledgehammer to upend the global trading system in a way that will result in manufacturing and jobs returning to America? In us beating China? Or is he using the wrong tools to achieve basic trading concessions? I have no idea; does he?

Let’s trickle down to some of the President’s other policy priorities: The White House announced yesterday that the United States would be holding direct talks with the Iranian government about its nuclear weapons program. (Iran denies it.) What kind of a deal is Trump looking for? “I think it’ll be different and maybe a lot stronger,” the president explained. So, per Donald Trump, Iran must end its nuclear weapons program, but he's willing to do a deal that looks like Obama's Iran nuclear deal, but "a lot stronger"?

Who will be negotiating this "stronger" nuclear deal with Iran? Is it the same Middle East negotiator who is also negotiating with the Russians over Ukraine? The same one who flew his private jet to Moscow unbeknownst to the administration, and then met with Vladimir Putin without a US translator present? And then got on a signal chat about national security from the Kremlin? That one?

Is it the same negotiator that hopped on a chat with Tucker Carlson, and parroted Russian propaganda about Ukraine? Is it the same negotiator whose colleague conducted the first direct US official talks with Hamas?

Let's set aside the quibbles about what has happened in the various meetings that top Middle East negotiator Steve Witkoff has conducted over the last two months. And let's also set aside the mistakes that have been made. Here's the real question: What is Donald Trump planning on getting out of the Russians to end the war in Ukraine? What we have seen over recent weeks is Russian delays, with some criticism from Donald Trump, but little progress towards an actual ceasefire.

Again, even if you don't agree with the president, a ceasefire is not an outrageous goal. But what is he actually doing to get there? Does he know what he's doing? Does his staff know what they're doing in negotiating directly with the Iranian government? Does the president know what he's doing on Gaza?

The same question besets the president’s reform efforts inside Washington. DOGE has gotten a lot of attention, eliminated a few government jobs, shut down a variety of grifting think tanks, punished a bunch of poser liberal board members… But does the White House understand that everything the President has done over the last two months is completely reversible in a new administration? That a Democratic Congress and a Democratic White House could rehire every fired employee and pay them back wages?

Many of us have been willing to grant time to a new president to get his policies and his house in order. We've made allowances when he's talked about annexing Canada, understanding that he may just be saying that he can't stand the Canadian government. We've added the caveat that he may be wrong on Canada, but he's right on Greenland. Just like we've added the caveat that he may not be able to build a resort in Gaza, but he's not crazy to look for a new policy.

But maybe those allowances are wrong. Maybe the president doesn't know what he's doing. Perhaps all this flailing around, the drama, the insults, the firings, and the relentless capriciousness aren't part of a strategy. Maybe they’re just signs that Donald Trump doesn't actually know what he's doing.

I want Donald Trump to succeed. I hope I’m wrong. The stock market suggests otherwise.

And finally…

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