#WTH UPDATE🚨Getting to yes on Ukraine

And ending our largely fact free debate

Update:

Original post: There’s been a lot of sound and fury in the media about the Trump/Vance/Zelensky debacle in the Oval Office last week. Predictably, the United States has suspended assistance to Ukraine as a result. Here’s the thing: Most of the people writing and opining about the situation haven’t a clue what’s actually happening behind the scenes in Washington DC. Very few in the mainstream media, let alone in opinion world (is there any media left that isn’t opinion world?) actually know the machinations ongoing in the United States. They’re plugged into the D side — as ever — and they’re plugged into the old school Reaganite wing of the GOP. But the Trump White House is a black box.

Because so few who support Ukraine are actually connected to Trump’s national security team, the narrative around U.S.-Ukraine relations is remarkably fact free. And much as Donald Trump insists on his own “facts” — Ukraine received $350 billion in US assistance! — they too insist on theirs. Lefty stalwarts who neither voted for, nor know a soul in Trump’s national security orbit insist that Trump “never” wanted the minerals deal with Ukraine. That he “set up” Zelensky in the Oval. That he is on “Team Putin,” and that the United States has “changed sides” in the Russian war on Ukraine. (Some who have worked for Trump and hate his guts for personal reasons are also in these ranks.)

Sure, there are plenty of people in the Trump orbit who prefer Putin; think Tucker Carlson. There are even more people in Trump’s orbit who may not have illusions about Putin’s nature, but think Ukraine has screwed the pooch and needs to stand down in its defensive war and sue for peace. And, believe it or not, there are important people who want America to help Ukraine secure the best possible outcome of Russia’s terrible war of conquest.

Perhaps saying this again will help: Watch all 50 minutes of the Oval Office meeting. Listen to Trump. Watch Zelensky. And then make an assessment of this statement by a “White House official”:

“The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”

The White House is not “ending” its aid. It’s not “reversing” its position. It is “pausing” its aid. Why? Because Trump wants to broker an end to the conflict. You may ask yourself whether now is the time for that -- and it’s a legitimate question. You may also ask yourself whether Trump’s emphasis on “peace” is genuine — and that too is a legitimate question. What you cannot ask yourself is whether Trump is President of the United States, or whether he controls the arms supply to Ukraine, or — and this is critical — whether Ukraine needs American support. The answer to all three is a factual YES.

Now look at the situation from Kyiv’s perspective. Does Europe have the wherewithal to bridge the gap in American arms to Ukraine? Absolutely not. Are the Ukrainian people wearying of this extraordinary costly war? They are. Would Ukraine like to better its advantage over Russia and seal a ceasefire on defensible lines? Of course. But Trump has said privately that he believes the lines must be defensible or no ceasefire can last, and alluded to a change in the lines publicly.

Who gets Ukraine to that position? Keir Starmer? Friedrich Merz? Come on. There’s only one serious game in town.

What will it take to get there? “Experts” will tell you Trump is exactly where he wants to be, and that Zelensky must forge his own path. These “experts” don’t give a damn about the fate of Ukraine, and cannot see past their antipathy towards Trump. Please, listen: I am no MAGA Republican. Those who read my columns and know me are well aware of my political position. But it’s as simple as this: Zelensky needs to apologize to Trump for the meeting that was, and get back on track by assuring Trump that he’s committed to negotiating a just and durable peace. He needs to do it personally, and simply. That’s what the President wants, and having watched the meeting again and again, he’s not wrong.

But forget Trump. Zelensky needs this. Dozens of dear friends to Z personally, and to Ukraine overall have tried to make the case to the Ukrainian president in recent days. Again and again and again. What will an apology cost? What will it deliver? This is not hard, and every human one of us has been in the pickle he’s in before. Saying sorry and not wanting to because we’re convinced the other guy owes us an apology instead. But Zelensky’s hubris is neither serving his people nor his cause.

Finally, a word about Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump may have illusions about Putin’s bona fides. He may also be fooling himself into believing he has influence at the Kremlin. But we have been down this road repeatedly in the past… Have you forgotten George W. Bush seeing into Putin’s soul? Or Obama’s “reset” in the immediate aftermath of Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine? His faith in Russia’s “disarmament” of Syria? Have you forgotten Trump’s early faith in Putin, and the devastating sanctions on Russia imposed by that self same Trump in his first term? Have you forgotten Joe Biden’s belief Russia could be cajoled away from invading Ukraine a second time?

Who has solved these problems for the United States? It’s not Congress or the Ds or the New York Times. It’s Putin (and Khamenei, Kim Jong Un, and Xi Jinping) who have solved the problem. They are bad people, they are liars, and they do bad things. Putin is right now continuing to arm Iran. He is right now cooperating with China against the United States. Donald Trump may have illusions, but he’s not deaf, dumb, or blind. We can be confident that Putin will be Putin.

Is it ridiculous to rely on the bad faith or our enemies to shock the United States into better behavior? You bet. But it has always been the way, from the sinking of the Lusitania to Pearl Harbor to the blockade of Berlin… I could go on here. As Churchill (somewhat apocryphally) explained, the United States likes to try every bad idea until it finally lands on the right one. But it takes a while.

Right now, Putin is being given a free ride by, of all people, Zelensky. We’re all talking about what Ukraine must do, and not talking about Russia’s terms. Do you believe Putin will sign up to “better lines” for Ukraine? That he will cede an inch? That he will accept genuine peacekeepers? That Putin will fork over the necessary for Ukraine’s reconstruction? Thus far, however, no one has asked. The one meeting on this topic — in Saudi Arabia, with the Trump administration — ended with no Russian concessions. It’s time for Putin to be asked some hard questions, and for Ukraine to watch the Kremlin squirm.

Are there people in this town who prefer Putin to Zelensky? Yes. And they are wrong. So why are Ukraine’s advocates and Zelensky and his supporters making their case for them?

PS You may have seen the headlines about Europe finally moving to take Russia’s sovereign assets ($300 billion, mostly in EU banks) and use it to help Ukraine. Read the details: They have no intention of “using” that money for anything other than leverage against Russia if it breaks the now non-existent ceasefire. What does that mean? It means they hang on to the money, and insist it cannot be used for arms or Ukraine’s reconstruction because it is “leverage” against Russia. Leverage only works if there is hope in the power being leveraged that the money can be recovered. As always, Europe disappoints.