#WTH Hasta la vista, Ismail Haniyeh

Good riddance to bad rubbish

Last night, at around 2 am Tehran time, a “projectile” hit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps veterans quarters in northern Tehran. And there went Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard. The Iranians were quick to finger the Israelis, insisting that the attack was an air-launched missile from “outside” Iranian territory. That’s what we know, or at least are being told, right now.

The decision to hit Haniyeh in Tehran makes sense. Haniyeh has not been trapped in Qatar, where he and his billions reside. He has traveled to Egypt, to Moscow, and Iran. But the Israelis clearly didn’t want to hit him in Doha, the Qatari capital. The Israeli government has too much at stake with the play-all-sides Qatari regime to risk the relationship. Ditto for the relationship with their Camp David “partner” Egypt. But Iran…

Think it through for a moment. Poor old President Ebrahim Raisi is killed in a helo crash. Following that “accident” (for the record, I think it was an accident; no one in Iran agrees), there had to be an election, and then a swearing-in and a party with all of Iran’s axis of evil buddies. That gave the Israelis time to plan, because dollars to donuts, Haniyeh was going to be there. Even with his stolen millions, the Hamas honcho knew on what side his bread was buttered. And boom, there he went. The only missed opportunity was the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, reportedly on another floor of the same building.

So what happens now? U.S. SecDef Lloyd Austin makes a useless statement, seeking to “take the temperature down.” (Luckily, Austin is overseas, while everyone at the White House is asleep.) Expect more such banalities from the Biden administration when Washington wakes up. For its part, the Islamic Republic of Iran is desperately embarrassed. An Israeli assassination — not just in Tehran, but at the presidential inauguration, and in an IRGC abode. And so shortly after Iran’s inability to strike targets in Israel with its own projectiles was demonstrated to the entire world. A bad look. But what can Iran do?

A second problem for Iran is yesterday’s elimination of Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s highest ranking military leaders, and the architect of the attack that murdered 12 Israeli Druze children last week. Shukr was, by the bye, also wanted by the United States for his role in the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing in Beirut. A twofer.

So two of Iran’s biggest terrorist proxies are gone in the space of 24 hours. Aides to the Supreme Leader in Tehran are whispering, “we must act.” But what to do? Maybe get a proxy to kill 1000 Israelis, plus women and children? Shoot, that’s been done. Attack from the north and kill a bunch of Israeli Muslims? Damn, done. Shoot from Yemen at targets in the Israeli south? Hell, done. How about an all out attack with hundreds of short and long range missiles and drones. Ugh, did that too. So…. what will the Iranians do?

Iran has options. It can use Hezbollah to more aggressively target Israeli civilian centers outside the usual range in the north; various Iranians have been threatening Tel Aviv on twitter. It can target Israeli leaders — but that hasn’t been a very productive line of effort. It can sacrifice all of Lebanon and have Hezbollah launch a full-scale war against Israel. That will lose Hezbollah all those bribes U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has been offering them — as if the best interests of Lebanon’s people are at the heart of Hezbollah’s concerns. But in truth, Iran’s decisive options are limited.

What will the Biden administration do? First, it will continue to memory hole the U.S. citizens being held by the late Haniyeh’s organization. Second, it will blame Israel for escalating “at a sensitive moment,” or some such twaddle. Third, it will fret about “escalation” — the obsession of the soon-to-be outgoing Biden National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. (It’s only ever an “escalation” when the Israelis do it.) And lastly, it will launch into a frenzy of diplomacy seeking to blame Israeli PM Netanyahu for imperiling the hostage negotiations by offing the masterminds of October 7. None of this will work.

Forgotten will be the fact that the U.S. has eliminated Osama bin Laden, his son Hamza bin Laden, his successor Ayman Zawahiri, ISIS leader Maher al Agal, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi (same), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (same), Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (al Qaeda in Iraq), Anwar al Awlaki (AQAP), and countless others who were responsible for, planning, financing, or spiritually sustaining terrorist attacks against the U.S. and U.S. interests. Not to speak of IRGC Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani…

In Israel, there is a legitimate conversation to be had about balancing the imperative of rescuing the hostages and the need to eliminate the most important terrorists of the last few years. And doubtless, Israeli hostage families will be all the more infuriated by what they perceive are efforts by Bibi et al to prosecute the war without prioritizing the liberation of the hostages. If I were a hostage family member, I would feel the same way. But Netanyahu is prime minister for all Israelis, not just hostage families. He also represents the Israelis under attack, the Israelis whose family members were killed on October 7 and since. This is not a simple political decision, and in Israel’s democracy, it will be up to the Israeli people to decide if the correct calculus was made.

Here’s the bottom line: Two terrorists are dead. Will they be replaced? Yep. Will it bring anyone back to life? No. Will it prevent future deaths? That is what we hope. A Palestinian state will not be delivered on the pyre of blood and bodies Iran has built through Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. A Palestinian state will only become possible when all the Haniyehs, Shukrs, Nasrallahs, and Sinwars are gone.