WTH Iran??

The latest: To go or not to go

U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln

I had hoped to write post-Iran operation, but that hasn’t happened. The United States is poised and equipped for a substantial and lengthy strike on the Islamic Republic. Here’s a list of known and likely assets:

Naval Strike Forces

• USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group: This nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is currently in the Arabian Sea with a full air wing of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, F-35C Lightning II stealth fighters, and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.

• Guided-Missile Destroyers: Multiple Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, including the USS McFaul, USS Mitscher, and USS Spruance, are positioned in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. These ships are equipped with the Aegis missile defence system and Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Guided-Missile Submarines: At least one attack submarine is operating in the region, capable of launching long-range Tomahawk missiles to target hardened facilities.

Air Force Strike & Bomber Assets

• B-2 Spirit Stealth Bombers: These long-range bombers remain the primary tool for deep-penetration strikes. They famously used GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP)—30,000lb “bunker buster” bombs—to hit Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz.

• F-15E Strike Eagle Squadrons: Relocated from RAF Lakenheath to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, these jets have been upgraded with laser-guided rockets specifically for intercepting Iranian drones at a low cost.

• Stealth Fighters (F-35 & F-22): Fifth-generation fighters are deployed to regional bases to provide air superiority. On 3 February 2026, a Navy F-35C shot down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln.

Strategic Missile Defence

• THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense): The U.S. has deployed two THAAD batteries to Israel to provide high-altitude protection against Iranian ballistic missiles. These systems are now fully integrated with Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling defences.

• Patriot Missile Systems: Additional Patriot batteries have been surged to U.S. bases in the region, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, to defend against retaliatory missile barrages.

There’s probably more we don’t know about. And then there are the Israelis, who have their own capabilities to deal with Iran.

And here’s what’s happening on the diplomatic front from our Critical Threats Team:

Iran and the United States are expected to hold talks in Oman on February 6, despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on February 4. Iran continues to show inflexibility toward addressing US demands, which reduces the likelihood that Iran and the United States will be able to reach a diplomatic solution. The United States and Iran had previously agreed to hold talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on February 6, with other regional states participating. Iran’s refusal to show flexibility over the location and format of the talks prompted a brief cancellation of the planned US-Iran talks on February 4, according to two unspecified US officials. The Iranian regime also pushed for bilateral US-Iran talks and restrictions that would limit the talks to the Iranian nuclear program, instead of broader negotiations desired by the United States that would address the ballistic missile program and Iran’s support for regional proxies. Unspecified officials separately told Axios on February 4 that at least nine regional countries urged the United States not to cancel the talks in ”high-level” messages, which led to a US decision to hold the February 6 talks despite the earlier cancellation. The sources added that the Trump administration remains “very skeptical” that negotiations will proceed.

Read the rest of their brief here.

These are the facts that we are aware of. Then there are the considerations at play. My WTH cohost Marc Thiessen lays them out neatly. Here’s the lede from his Washington Post column entitled The choice that will define the president’s place in history:

President Donald Trump faces a momentous decision: Does he deliver on his promise to strike Iran after the regime crossed his red line and killed thousands of innocent civilians? How he answers will do more than define his presidency; it will determine his place in American history.

Read the rest here (gift link).

I’d love to give you the glib take I regularly hear: Trump “promised.” He said “help” was on the way. “Anything” is better than the current rulers of Iran. But I can’t.

I agree that Trump made promises, spoke rashly, and drew more Iranians into the street in the hopes they would be followed by the US Air Force. But I also know that as prepared as the American President was to move in those early days, the Israelis weren’t ready. And no, it’s not that Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t realize the incredible opportunity facing the region and the world; even a leader less savvy than Bibi must grasp that the Islamic Republic of Iran is the malign force that has sought to destroy the Middle East for nearly half a century. But the Israeli Prime Minister also has an obligation not to subject his people to ruthless Iranian attack, and to protect the lives of Israeli citizens. Clearly, he believed he could not do so when Donald Trump sought initially to strike Iran.

I don’t agree with Netanyahu’s decision, but I am (sorry guys) not the elected prime minister of Israel.

In the interim before the massive U.S. build up, the Iranians have pulled out all the stops to deter, cajole, beg, threaten, and prostrate themselves before the Americans. They have targeted U.S. assets with their navy and drones. They have rolled out the Qataris, the Omanis, the Saudis, Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, and all of their agents in the Western world. Credit to Donald Trump that he is still considering hitting them. But it is his word and his credibility at stake after all.

What do the Iranian blandishments look like? Nuclear concessions, first dramatic and now limited. Missile concessions, first broad, now non-existent. Nothing on terrorism. Nothing on human rights. Will they keep to an agreement they make with Trump? No. Never. Will the Iranian people ever have another chance to overthrow these tyrants? Doubtful. Likely tens of thousands have died. The regime was genuinely afraid, and still are.

But here are the additional critical questions: Do the Iranian people still have momentum? Is there a prospect for a stable post-IRI government? I don’t know.

To me, the chance is worth taking. The payoff for toppling this malign system in Iran is astronomical. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s popular mobilization forces, Russia, and China will be hit hard. The Middle East could be transformed. The people of Iran could be free.

Might things go the other way? In short, yes. Someone worse could wait in the wings in Tehran. Steve Witkoff could be tempted by the ayatollah’s blandishments, and talk Trump into following Obama and Biden’s weak footsteps.

Finally, for those who are demanding to know the outcome before America acts, we must recognize that there can never be certainty in any such conflict. We must simply make choices consonant with our values and our interests. They coincide perfectly here, and as Marc writes,

In his inaugural address, Trump said the he believed he was saved from an assassin’s bullet for a reason — to help America “reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth.” Well, these are the decisions from which greatness is made. Providence has placed this opportunity in his hands. I trust him to make the courageous choice.

Let’s hope so.