#WTH Iran, garbage intel, & what's next

So. Many. Questions.

First, first, first, please do join me and Elise Labott for our #Hot Takes Happy Hour today at 530 ET. We’re discussing Iran, NATO, and much more. And now onto some analysis.

In a world in which there is no longer truth or fact, but “my truth” and “alternative facts,” it should come as no surprise that the US government has organized itself accordingly. In the wake of a brief, but very intense U.S. operation in Iran that delivered 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) at 30,000 pounds each, plus assorted other weaponry, CNN, rapidly followed by others, was quick to announce that leaks from the Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that the campaign did little to set back the Iranian nuclear program.

So, they had an active nuclear program… a weapons program? Because, last leak I checked, the American intelligence community (IC) was insisting there was no weapons program. But forget that. We can agree that they do have a weapons program; so 420,000 pounds of explosives only set back the program by a couple months? C’mon, as our late Uncle Joe might have said.

Let’s talk about the garbage media consensus first, and then talk about what the thrilling “CEASEFIRE” has delivered.

What many outside DC don’t know, and shouldn’t care about, is that there is a hierarchy in the IC. And DIA isn’t on top. So, if you’re reading a leak from DIA, odds are, it’s like reading a leak in the the Quad City Times. It’s not from someone super important, in the know. It’s from some minor apparatchik who hates Donald Trump.

There’s no doubt that Iran’s nuclear weapons program cannot be bombed out of existence. You can’t kill enough nuclear scientists, or bomb enough cascades and research centers, or get every last bit of a dispersed and advanced three decade old nuclear weapons program. Because that’s what it is. (See my previous pieces on this here, here, and here.) But you can whomp it pretty hard.

To recap, a nuclear weapon requires a design, enriched fissile material, a delivery mechanism, and all the science in between. So if i give my local 7/11 guy a few tons of uranium enriched at 60 percent, it’s not hugely useful to him, because he needs to get it to 90 percent for a weapon. Yes, it’s a short jump, but one needs the centrifuges to do the job, and if the centrifuges are dust, that makes it tough. Now, Iran has centrifuges that are stored outside the big bomb sites, and presumably has some options to continue its program. Nonetheless, 300+ thousands pounds of explosives have an impact.

So, let’s agree, the Iranians have been set back. Maybe a year, maybe more. But were these methodical and highly accurate US and Israeli hits a meh? Just a chip off the old nuclear block? Or were they devastating, but not fatal? It’s not a hard call. Of course they were devastating. Indeed, ask yourself a not-too-tough question: Who has an interest in suggesting these strikes were less effective than hoped? Iran and its friends, who are apparently plentiful in the US media. Of course, don’t underestimate how much Trump Derangement Syndrome drove these folks to Team Tehran either.

The fact that leading Democrats were eager to pile on and label the mission a failure is little more than a sad reflection on the Democratic Party of 2025. Why would any member of any party want a U.S. military operation to fail? And what exactly was their alternative? The meandering and pointless “policy” of the Biden administration that resulted in zero concessions and massive advances towards an Iranian weapon.

We won’t know for real how damaged the Iranian nuclear program was until we see battle damage assessments from parties who were interested in the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. That means the Israelis, first and foremost. Then, hopefully the IAEA. But we need to know what happens next. Do you? I’m asking for a friend.

When Donald Trump announced CEASEFIRE on June 23, there was widespread suspicion that he had consulted neither with the Israelis or the Iranians. Iran got a few last shots in, but it seems to now be over. What does that mean? Did Trump take the coup grace shot and then pull out understanding that the Iranians would come to the table and give up enrichment and more? Seems not. The Israelis don’t know what was gotten for a cease fire. The Iranians don’t know what they’re expected to give for a cease fire. But… CEASEFIRE!

Donald Trump appears to believe it was clear to Iran that they must come to the table with total capitulation on enrichment. Asked at a presser if that was his aim, he affirmed that it was, and confirmed he would hit Iran again if needed. “Sure,” he answered, when asked. Did someone tell Iran? No clue. Tell Israel? Ditto. Is there a process by which Iran comes to the table? Not sure. Do you they know what’s expected? Certainly not.

If you’re confused, I’m sympathetic. I have no idea what the hell is going on. Nor, apparently, do Trump’s lieutenants. This makes it tough to convey to the Iranians how they must cave, in what way, and when. Will it be Steve Witkoff, late of the “yup, you can enrich” plan, who delivers the message? No idea. I suspect the Iranians are all looking at eachother, mouthing WTF in Persian.

It’s this bizarre precipice ahead that’s troubling Iran watchers. If Trump had said, “OK, no, you cave, bring us to your cascades now,” we would have applauded. But no. It’s just ceasefire and … air.

I am all for Trumpian unexpectedness, and the flumoxing of our enemies. What I don’t get is no plan, no marching orders, no expectations. Absent specific steps. the Iranians will be still en route to a nuke. So when do they take the necessary steps? What is the verification process? How do we reassure the world? Or do we all pretend everything is great now and go about our business?

This is the worst of the Donald Trump experience. You think there’s a plan, but there’s just a vibe, a sense of a good idea with nothing behind it. In the real world, you have staff. Plans. Speeches. In Trumpworld, the staff gets fired for malfeasances yet unspecified. At some point, adulthood is needed, clarity is required. Let’s hope it arrives soon, otherwise, all too soon, we’ll be back at status quo ante.