I remember some years ago Shia Iraqis protesting and demanding "Iran Out--Iraq for Iraqis" Maybe those Shia Iraqis will get their wish and maybe they can build an independent country. And maybe Venezuelans had no hope and now they do. And also, maybe we can sell Venezuelan oil to India and it would be easier to constrict Russian oil sales. A lot of maybes.
Official Iranian TV is running clips from Tucker Carlson, in an interesting bid to gaslight the Iranian people into believing that Americans support the regime. I hope they know better, even if Tucker, a useful idiot, does not.
It is always dicey to bet on an uprising against a police state. The odds favor the house. This may only be round II of what might become a serial attempt to end the theocracy. The rumor the Ayatollah has an escape plan to Russia helps the protesters. But without internet and cell phone service they lack information and coordination. However, they outnumber the security forces and probably have infiltrators in the police and security thuggery. Also, women are very prevalent in the demonstrations and say what you will, it is hard for the regime to openly murder women — they do that behind closed doors.
The US (along with the willy-nilly Europeans) must apply maximum pressure to cut Iran’s cashflow. India is a problem and needs to be squeezed or encouraged to stop buying Iranian crude. Russia has no cash, and little military room to provide aid to Iran, its air defense systems were proven inept against the IDF F-35 show. The Ayatollocracy also has poorly planned and underinvested in its own infrastructure as made clear by the current drought and water shortage. The people can drink nuclear waste left in Fowdor, Natanz, and Isfahan. The leadership continues to fund overseas adventures while sacrificing domestic needs. The people know this. And they see the inflation which is stratospheric. The regime operates on oil barter and some minuscule hard currency to trade, but its options are narrow and it must accept large discounts to pay in oil. The infrastructure problem is also visible as Iran still remains a major buyer of Russian gasoline and is negotiating to buy large amounts of natural gas from Russia — none of which can be paid in oil barter. Its poor policies have left it unable to meet its own needs. China is supplying surveillance equipment, drone know-how, and missiles to Iran, buys around 90% of Iran’s oil, and supplies some credit and cash. Each drop of oil they buy is another drop a more desperate Russia does not sell. As Russian planes and Chinese emissaries appear in Tehran, the people dependent upon the regime and the citizenry of Iran realize the regime is weakening.
And that opens the real question: US Grand Strategy. The Trump Administration has reversed the American gas-guzzler and gone back to the fork in the road before Biden, before Obama, and before Comey and gang undermined Trump’s first term. Trump is taking a different course where we secure ourselves (oil production up, rare earth metals production coming, trade barriers up, and tariffs to help cut trade deficits and Chinese leverage are in place). At the same time we are creating problems for our adversaries and no longer allowing them to gather strength. And the objective: Stop the Chinese from Moving on Taiwan and tearing at the seams of the Sino-Russian alliance and their client states.
Problem #1 and an opportunity in the Grand Strategy Mix is Ukraine. The Ukraine situation is a sitzkrieg of swapping territory for casualties. Neither side can win on the line. Europe is providing just enough aid — though it is a shell game at times. The US is slowly turning up the heat with HIMARS, intelligence, targeting and tools. Each side in the Ukraine conflict is picking apart the other’s infrastructure with Russia recently taking more hits to its once secure oil refineries — a strategy that can have consequences and generate more Ukrainian civilian deaths as Putin grows desperate and retaliates. China and N. Korea are certainly concerned about where this is going and worried about their support of Russia. Putin is hiding in his bunker whining about Ukrainian attempts to kill him while the Russians try to kill Zelensky. For now it is stand-off that drains the resources of our adversaries and allies, and tilts Ukraine closer to a breaking point which is Putin’s goal. Replacing Ukrainian soldiers is becoming a serious problem. So, something has to give soon — which could be more pervasive attacks to disable Russian oil refining to freeze the country, or Russian reprisals that level entire Ukrainian cities, … or both. Either way, neither the Ukrainians nor the other side are winning. And this is only the first pivot point in a Grand Strategy to realign the geopolitical balance left in the aftermath of Obama’s and Biden’s lead-from-behind, step-back, and hide-and-seek foreign policy.
The IDF’s wipe out of Iran’s defenses in June was a show. Trump is risk averse, so the Israeli success emboldened him. His decision to follow-up and bomb the Iranian nuclear program was an exceptional move and one that was a brilliant success. Trump loves the limelight of brilliance. Iran was weakened at home and abroad. Most of the Arab Middle East aligned overtly or covertly with the US. Not even the Houthi’s fully trust Iran, and Hezbollah has deep suspicions. For now, Isreal which was under siege, is secure. That fits the Grand Strategy well.
The Trump Peace deal in Gaza is a bit of a charade, but with time the noose will begin to tighten there. It limits Hamas’ options and sets up a time when the US can set up its pieces and move forward to remove the Hamas gangsters. Right now, that is not happening. Peace, more or less, for now. Grand Strategy working.
The Maduro capture was another roll of the military dice which did not seem to fit Trump’s risk averse nature. It turned out to be an amazing winner that occurred because there was an alignment of events that tilted Trump over the edge. The prior embargo on Venezuela is taking its tool and in a few weeks the regime will run out of cash to compensate their security forces. The people outnumber the security forces, and though there may be fighting, most of the old regime are looking to find an exit strategy. And don’t forget, Cuba exists on Venezuelan oil. It too is at risk, and a personal goal for Marco Rubio. So the Trump Administration can chalk up some progress in removing another threat to the US and a friend to our enemies. Grand Strategy house cleaning started.
So, what we are seeing is the tick, tick, tick of the demise of the Sino-Russo-N. Korean-Iran-Venezuelan-Cuba axis. And why are the above seemingly unrelated events important and worth connecting?
Like it or not, this is all about Taiwan. Former CINCPAC Admiral Davidson established the Davidson Window — a window in 2027, the year he believed China could take the leap or plunge to seize control of Taiwan and its vital chip plants. This is a personal commitment and the most important goal for Chairman Xi. His purges and entire consolidation of power inside the CCP has been justified by Making China Great Again, and Taiwan will prove he achieve his goal and remove American hegemony in the region. Thus, China’s foreign policy is designed to weaken the US by using client states to export drugs and gangs to our streets, convincing our youth they are gender dysphoric or dysfunctional on TikTok, undermining good order and discipline in our military with DEI and gay preoccupation, co-opting and funding Antifa and Democrat Socialists to break down American law enforcement, using foreign aid to buy-off countries, stealing American technology, squeezing vital rare earth metals, preparing tools to hack our electrical and energy grid, creating a black market international payment settlement system, undermining the dollar as the reserve currency, and removing America’s ability to resist a Chinese takeover of the island of Taiwan. Taiwan is the big test, and that is what Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, Venezuela, and Cuban policy is about. We are pushing back and forcing a retrenchment and re-thinking in Beijing. We are trying to close the Davidson Window.
There are some bright people inside the Trump Administration — and Marco Rubio did not just get into town. Vance is still learning. Under-Secretary of Defense Eldridge Colby is savvy. CINCPAC is on top of the situation. And believe it or not, Trump is riding events, being presented with opportunities, is very pragmatic, and surrounded by a few people who understand how to play the big game. Iran is only part of it. While I want to see the regime fall — and it serves the Grand Strategy — what will replace it remains a question. Either way, the Ayatollah’s options and assistance to the Sino-Russian coop is severely limited by what is happening inside Iran. Like Russia, Venezuela, oil dependent Cuba, Hamas, Hezbollah — these forces of malevolence and mischief are becoming liabilities to Xi as America clears the decks.
I remember some years ago Shia Iraqis protesting and demanding "Iran Out--Iraq for Iraqis" Maybe those Shia Iraqis will get their wish and maybe they can build an independent country. And maybe Venezuelans had no hope and now they do. And also, maybe we can sell Venezuelan oil to India and it would be easier to constrict Russian oil sales. A lot of maybes.
Well said.
Official Iranian TV is running clips from Tucker Carlson, in an interesting bid to gaslight the Iranian people into believing that Americans support the regime. I hope they know better, even if Tucker, a useful idiot, does not.
I saw that. Tucker has become a true useful idiot to America’s enemies. I’m glad his dad isn’t alive to see it.
It is always dicey to bet on an uprising against a police state. The odds favor the house. This may only be round II of what might become a serial attempt to end the theocracy. The rumor the Ayatollah has an escape plan to Russia helps the protesters. But without internet and cell phone service they lack information and coordination. However, they outnumber the security forces and probably have infiltrators in the police and security thuggery. Also, women are very prevalent in the demonstrations and say what you will, it is hard for the regime to openly murder women — they do that behind closed doors.
The US (along with the willy-nilly Europeans) must apply maximum pressure to cut Iran’s cashflow. India is a problem and needs to be squeezed or encouraged to stop buying Iranian crude. Russia has no cash, and little military room to provide aid to Iran, its air defense systems were proven inept against the IDF F-35 show. The Ayatollocracy also has poorly planned and underinvested in its own infrastructure as made clear by the current drought and water shortage. The people can drink nuclear waste left in Fowdor, Natanz, and Isfahan. The leadership continues to fund overseas adventures while sacrificing domestic needs. The people know this. And they see the inflation which is stratospheric. The regime operates on oil barter and some minuscule hard currency to trade, but its options are narrow and it must accept large discounts to pay in oil. The infrastructure problem is also visible as Iran still remains a major buyer of Russian gasoline and is negotiating to buy large amounts of natural gas from Russia — none of which can be paid in oil barter. Its poor policies have left it unable to meet its own needs. China is supplying surveillance equipment, drone know-how, and missiles to Iran, buys around 90% of Iran’s oil, and supplies some credit and cash. Each drop of oil they buy is another drop a more desperate Russia does not sell. As Russian planes and Chinese emissaries appear in Tehran, the people dependent upon the regime and the citizenry of Iran realize the regime is weakening.
And that opens the real question: US Grand Strategy. The Trump Administration has reversed the American gas-guzzler and gone back to the fork in the road before Biden, before Obama, and before Comey and gang undermined Trump’s first term. Trump is taking a different course where we secure ourselves (oil production up, rare earth metals production coming, trade barriers up, and tariffs to help cut trade deficits and Chinese leverage are in place). At the same time we are creating problems for our adversaries and no longer allowing them to gather strength. And the objective: Stop the Chinese from Moving on Taiwan and tearing at the seams of the Sino-Russian alliance and their client states.
Problem #1 and an opportunity in the Grand Strategy Mix is Ukraine. The Ukraine situation is a sitzkrieg of swapping territory for casualties. Neither side can win on the line. Europe is providing just enough aid — though it is a shell game at times. The US is slowly turning up the heat with HIMARS, intelligence, targeting and tools. Each side in the Ukraine conflict is picking apart the other’s infrastructure with Russia recently taking more hits to its once secure oil refineries — a strategy that can have consequences and generate more Ukrainian civilian deaths as Putin grows desperate and retaliates. China and N. Korea are certainly concerned about where this is going and worried about their support of Russia. Putin is hiding in his bunker whining about Ukrainian attempts to kill him while the Russians try to kill Zelensky. For now it is stand-off that drains the resources of our adversaries and allies, and tilts Ukraine closer to a breaking point which is Putin’s goal. Replacing Ukrainian soldiers is becoming a serious problem. So, something has to give soon — which could be more pervasive attacks to disable Russian oil refining to freeze the country, or Russian reprisals that level entire Ukrainian cities, … or both. Either way, neither the Ukrainians nor the other side are winning. And this is only the first pivot point in a Grand Strategy to realign the geopolitical balance left in the aftermath of Obama’s and Biden’s lead-from-behind, step-back, and hide-and-seek foreign policy.
The IDF’s wipe out of Iran’s defenses in June was a show. Trump is risk averse, so the Israeli success emboldened him. His decision to follow-up and bomb the Iranian nuclear program was an exceptional move and one that was a brilliant success. Trump loves the limelight of brilliance. Iran was weakened at home and abroad. Most of the Arab Middle East aligned overtly or covertly with the US. Not even the Houthi’s fully trust Iran, and Hezbollah has deep suspicions. For now, Isreal which was under siege, is secure. That fits the Grand Strategy well.
The Trump Peace deal in Gaza is a bit of a charade, but with time the noose will begin to tighten there. It limits Hamas’ options and sets up a time when the US can set up its pieces and move forward to remove the Hamas gangsters. Right now, that is not happening. Peace, more or less, for now. Grand Strategy working.
The Maduro capture was another roll of the military dice which did not seem to fit Trump’s risk averse nature. It turned out to be an amazing winner that occurred because there was an alignment of events that tilted Trump over the edge. The prior embargo on Venezuela is taking its tool and in a few weeks the regime will run out of cash to compensate their security forces. The people outnumber the security forces, and though there may be fighting, most of the old regime are looking to find an exit strategy. And don’t forget, Cuba exists on Venezuelan oil. It too is at risk, and a personal goal for Marco Rubio. So the Trump Administration can chalk up some progress in removing another threat to the US and a friend to our enemies. Grand Strategy house cleaning started.
So, what we are seeing is the tick, tick, tick of the demise of the Sino-Russo-N. Korean-Iran-Venezuelan-Cuba axis. And why are the above seemingly unrelated events important and worth connecting?
Like it or not, this is all about Taiwan. Former CINCPAC Admiral Davidson established the Davidson Window — a window in 2027, the year he believed China could take the leap or plunge to seize control of Taiwan and its vital chip plants. This is a personal commitment and the most important goal for Chairman Xi. His purges and entire consolidation of power inside the CCP has been justified by Making China Great Again, and Taiwan will prove he achieve his goal and remove American hegemony in the region. Thus, China’s foreign policy is designed to weaken the US by using client states to export drugs and gangs to our streets, convincing our youth they are gender dysphoric or dysfunctional on TikTok, undermining good order and discipline in our military with DEI and gay preoccupation, co-opting and funding Antifa and Democrat Socialists to break down American law enforcement, using foreign aid to buy-off countries, stealing American technology, squeezing vital rare earth metals, preparing tools to hack our electrical and energy grid, creating a black market international payment settlement system, undermining the dollar as the reserve currency, and removing America’s ability to resist a Chinese takeover of the island of Taiwan. Taiwan is the big test, and that is what Ukraine, Iran, Gaza, Venezuela, and Cuban policy is about. We are pushing back and forcing a retrenchment and re-thinking in Beijing. We are trying to close the Davidson Window.
There are some bright people inside the Trump Administration — and Marco Rubio did not just get into town. Vance is still learning. Under-Secretary of Defense Eldridge Colby is savvy. CINCPAC is on top of the situation. And believe it or not, Trump is riding events, being presented with opportunities, is very pragmatic, and surrounded by a few people who understand how to play the big game. Iran is only part of it. While I want to see the regime fall — and it serves the Grand Strategy — what will replace it remains a question. Either way, the Ayatollah’s options and assistance to the Sino-Russian coop is severely limited by what is happening inside Iran. Like Russia, Venezuela, oil dependent Cuba, Hamas, Hezbollah — these forces of malevolence and mischief are becoming liabilities to Xi as America clears the decks.