The facts are already clear: the Islamic Republic of Iran launched from its territory a large scale drone/missile attack on Israel on the night of April 13th. Hundreds of missiles were involved. As Iran had provided notification to pretty much everyone that this attack was coming, Israel and its allies were prepared. (Joe Biden went to the beach anyway, which was weird…) Israeli, American, British, French, and Jordanian pilots reportedly were involved in taking the drones and missiles out, and the Arrow system did its work for those that were missed. As I’m writing this, little damage, and one small injury (to a Bedouin girl) have been sustained. More may be coming, though Israel’s home front command has called all-clear for Northern and Southern Israel.
Rather than share a steaming hot take (that’ll come tomorrow, lukewarm-ish), allow me as an interested observer to share the questions I believe are right to ask at this moment.
Iran, via its mission to the United Nations (go figure) announced that since all those missiles were launched, justice was done, and vengeance was had for the Israeli assassination of Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander in the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
A few factual notes: Zahedi met his demise because he was one of the principal planners of Hamas’s October 7 attack, per Iran’s own press reports.
The building taken out by the Israelis may technically have been designated a “consulate," but effectively, it was an IRGC HQ, and a legitimate target.
QUESTION: Is this attack on Israel tolerable? Given what at this moment appears to be the weakness of what was touted as a very serious effort to strike Israel by Iran, what will Iran’s response to Israel’s own retaliation be?
Israel’s war cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu, Minister without Portfolio Benny Gantz, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide on Israel’s next steps vis a vis Iran.
We should be certain that Joe Biden, in his conversation with Netanyahu on Saturday night, has asked Israel to show restraint, or even to refrain from responding at all.
Israel, having survived this attack thanks to its own and allied — including Arab — support, cannot allow Iran’s attack to pass without comment. All the more, as Iran is the engine behind Hamas’s own war on Israel, as well as Hezbollah’s, the Houthis’ etc.
QUESTIONS: Should Israel take this opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear program? Or should it restrict itself to striking Iranian drone facilities, a double whammy given Tehran’s drone exports to Russia? Will any decision by Israel lead to an escalatory spiral, or will the Iranians decide, having for once launched what appears to have been a fizzled attack from their own soil, that the risks to the regime are too great?
The United States and Europe appear to have forgotten about Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which is proceeding aggressively apace. I wrote about it here. One thing that should be absolutely manifest to the Iranians tonight is that their best “pinpointed” efforts for a limited but lethal attack on Israel aren’t all that awesome. A nuclear weapon will change that calculus.
The United States has ceased imposing meaningful sanctions on Iranian oil exports, its main source of income.
The United States has done little other than sanctions to limit Iran’s drone exports to Russia.
QUESTION: Is there anything that can be done to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program at this point? Does this attack on Israel frame the threat of that program in a different light?
It’s obvious that allied support for Israel, and critical weapons systems in the hands of those allies, is the reason Israel did not sustain more damage tonight.
The House of Representatives has been sitting on aid packages for both Ukraine and Israel for months now, and Ukraine is now in serious peril. Without resupply, the same may be true for Israel. And while the GOP has been the main problem with Ukraine, multiple reports now confirm that the Democrats are divided over supporting Israel.
QUESTION: Is Speaker Johnson fed up with Republican obstructionists and Democratic Israel-haters? The House has already announced Israel aid will come to the floor this week. How about Ukraine?
BONUS LAST POINT: As my colleagues at the Institute for the Study of War have explained, the Iranians are using tactics against Israel that have been perfected by the Russians against Ukraine. Understanding that the Iranian-Russian axis is learning from and perfecting targeting against U.S. and European weaponry is vitally important, and should underscore the critical importance of moving to help Ukraine defeat Russia, quickly (not to speak of Iran).
Here are their unrolled tweet on the topic:
NEW: The composition of the ongoing Iranian attack on Israel is similar to that of strikes that Russia has repeatedly conducted against Ukraine in efforts to determine the optimal package to penetrate Western-style air- and missile defenses. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Iranian drone and missile attack into Israel shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel and the US.
3/ The combination of Iranian drones and both cruise and ballistic missiles against Israel is meant to confuse and overwhelm Israeli air defenses. Launches of concurrent attacks by Iranian-backed actors in Lebanon and Yemen are part of this effort.
4/ This Iranian approach mirrors Russia’s experimentation with combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside Iranian drones to launch increasingly effective strike packages able to penetrate US and European anti-missile and air defense systems.
5/ Iran has also learned from Houthi attacks targeting international shipping around Yemen.
6/ The Houthis have used combinations of Iranian drones and missiles against US air and missile defense systems, allowing Iran and the Houthis to test and improve their strike packages.
7/ The continued use of Iranian-designed drones by multiple enemies of the US and the deepening ties between the actors using them will help Tehran, Russia, North Korea, and China to refine their use of these systems against the United States and its allies and partners.
8/ The US and its allies and partners face an increasingly interconnected group of adversaries helping one another and learning from one another.
Will Jihad Joe Biden step up to help Iran some more?