#WTH MAGA "isolationism" is fake news

The poll numbers from the Reagan Institute's Roger Zakheim

One of my biggest peeves about our new political environment is the triumph of the loud over the true. This manifests in lots of different ways on both sides of the aisle. Like, Donald Trump said to use bleach against COVID-19 (he didn’t). Or that the Democratic Party is made up of antisemites (80 percent of Americans are pro-Israel, including a majority of Ds). Or that Donald Trump’s MAGA movement is a bunch of pitchfork-waving isolationists (it isn’t).

We talked to the Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, Roger Zakheim, to understand what MAGA Republicans really think.

There’s always a grain of truth in the oft-repeated assertions about what people believe, sometimes more than just a grain. But we are persuaded they are gospel because of the mainstream press’s penchant for elevating loudmouths over normies. Thus, re any future Trump presidency, we hear that Ukraine will be defunded, the U.S. military will be returned to U.S. soil, the U.S. will withdraw from NATO, etc etc. And if you, like me, are all about U.S. global leadership, helping our friends win wars, and encouraging our NATO allies to ante up for our shared defense, the notion that Donald Trump will usher in a J.D. Vance/Josh Hawley foreign policy is troubling.

Here’s the thing: Neither Trump nor his voters are isolationists. Do they hate war? You bet. Don’t you? Do they hate losing? Being lectured by experts who presume to know all and then admit they were just making it all up? Getting involved in foreign messes with no strategy for victory? Duh. As Marc says all the time, Americans are reluctant internationalists. But internationalists all the same.

The Ronald Reagan Institute does a poll every summer, diving deep into American views on foreign policy. It’s a terrific document and a huge service to people who value truth over bombast. Here are some key takeaways lifted straight from the Reagan Institute analysis:

• The percentage of Americans who think it is better for the United States to be more engaged and take the lead when it comes to international events is on the rise, increasing 12 points in just six months.

• Most Americans think U.S. involvement in international events is beneficial for both the United States (57% overall, including 68% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans) and the world (61% overall, including 70% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans).

• Over three-quarters [overall] believe U.S. leadership is essential for promoting trade and boosting our economy (78%) and that America has a moral obligation to stand up for human rights and democracy around the world (77%). An even greater percentage (86%) believes that a strong U.S. military is essential to maintaining peace and prosperity, both at home and abroad—including supermajorities in each party (84% of Democrats and 92% of Republicans).

• Americans strongly support NATO’s collective defense principle, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Broad majorities of Americans (72% overall, including 82% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans) would support the United States responding with military force if a NATO ally in Europe were attacked.

• NATO allies, however, should take note that support for U.S. defense of European countries, if attacked, drops by 20 points to just 52% if that country is not spending at least 2% of its GDP on its own national defense, as all NATO countries have pledged to do. (The drop among Republicans is 27 points—down to only 46%.)

• 75% of Americans say it is important to the United States that Ukraine win the war, a number that has remained consistent since last year. Only seven percent say they want Russia to win the war, including only seven percent of Democrats and eight percent of Republicans.

Along with those overall numbers, the Reagan Institute for the first time dove into the question of what self-identified MAGA voters believe. This will knock your socks off, especially the comparison between MAGA and non-MAGA GOPers. Marc and Ben, our producer, parsed the cross tabs and found that:

• “[A] 51 percent majority of MAGA voters believe the United States should be ‘more engaged and take the lead’ on foreign policy, while just 39 percent say the United States should be ‘less engaged and react to events’ — a 12-point spread in favor of U.S. leadership.”

• “When asked if ‘the U.S. has a moral obligation to stand up for human rights and democracy whenever possible in international affairs,’ 73 percent of MAGA Republicans agree we do, compared with 69 percent of non-MAGA Republicans — including a 40 percent plurality of MAGA voters who ‘strongly agreed’ compared with just 33 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. And a 79 percent supermajority of MAGA voters also ‘strongly agree’ that ‘a strong U.S. military is essential to maintaining peace and prosperity, both at home and abroad,’ compared with 66 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.”

• A “53 percent majority say they hold a favorable view, slightly higher than non-MAGA Republicans (50 percent). A 63 percent majority of MAGA voters agree that ‘protecting freedom and democracy on the continent’ is an important benefit of being in NATO (compared with just 49 percent of non-MAGA Republicans) while 73 percent of MAGA voters say ‘checking the Russians so that they do not acquire more territory and power’ is important (just 60 percent of non-MAGA Republicans say that).”

There’s tons more, read the whole Thiessen/WaPo piece here.

In addition, when you line up Trump's record, especially his record against his rhetoric (sigh), you find that his leadership for the most part reflects his voters’ preferences. Nothing is ever quite as PERFECT as the former president and his acolytes insist, but his record, frankly, is far better than Biden’s on foreign policy.

Will that stay the same in a second term? Who the hell knows? But there is one thing that even Trump’s detractors will admit: Trump has his finger on the pulse of the public zeitgeist. And the MAGA public zeitgeist is far more internationalist than most would have you believe.

HIGHLIGHTS

The first shock of this poll is that self-identified “MAGA Republicans” are more hawkish on virtually every question than “non-MAGA Republicans.” What’s going on here?

RZ: I was surprised, Marc, actually. And the reason why we want to get at this kind of thread was we were asking, we are asking all these questions, as we do every time we do the survey on America's views towards American leadership in the world. And we thought, "Okay, well, we can't just ask the traditional 'how you identify party line, Republicans versus Democrats?'" But we are told, and Dany and I were talking about this before we got on the show, that we have to look at the different threads within the Republican Party, the neo-isolationists versus the internationalists.

And so we said, "Okay, let's see how those who identify as MAGA Republicans versus non-MAGA Republicans respond to these questions." And it's pretty eye-opening, as you point out, that actually, that is a MAGA, self-identified MAGA flank of the party really believes that American leadership in the world, and if you break it down across some of the issues you just spoke about, Marc, they're, in some respects, more hawkish than non-MAGA identifying Republicans. And so there's a lot there that I think will be surprising to those who probably get their news off of social media or the tropes that some of the networks tell you to believe.

Why are MAGA Republicans so often referred to as isolationists, do they just oppose Biden’s policies?

RZ: And I think what's going on here is a reaction towards President Biden and President Biden's leadership. And to the extent that you find Republican voters less enthusiastic about American leadership in the world, less enthusiastic about supporting Ukraine, you both have written about this and think deeply about it. I think the hesitation or the lack of support comes from who is occupying the White House, not because there's some deeply held ideological view that as a Republican I want to build the walls very high. I don't want to look beyond it or engage beyond those walls. That is decidedly not where conservatives Republicans MAGA or not want to be.

They have deep reservations about President Biden's leadership and the ability to lead the United States in the world. And I'll make one last point here is that you see that play out, Marc and Dany, in the questions that go to, "Are you concerned about the United States being brought into a war in Europe, being brought into a war in the Middle East?" There you find conservatives, republicans, MAGA, non-MAGA really showing numbers that suggest, "Hey, whatever we're doing in foreign policy, let's not get embroiled in an armed conflict." But to me that's more reflection of the concerns about President Biden than is about a worldview.

What are your other major takeaways from the poll?

RZ: So to me, the big takeaway is one we just hit on before, which is Americans overwhelmingly want leadership in the world and they want that leadership primarily to lead with American strength, military strength. I mean the numbers there and it's consistent with our previous polling is somewhere close to 85%. So that's Republicans and Democrats, and Republicans there are like over 94%.

So you think about American leadership in the world, they understand that our military, our leading in security is a guarantor of our peace and prosperity. The NATO piece, I know I'm sure Marc's want to jump into this a little bit, is also super interesting. Americans support NATO. Here we are about to enter the 75th anniversary of the Washington Summit. All these world leaders are coming to Washington. There is strong support for NATO. But at the same time there's this very interesting thread that whereas they would support, I believe close to two-thirds of Americans, Hey, backing up a NATO ally who's attacked by a Russia, given our Article Five commitments.

At the same time, Dany, they do not want to support NATO allies that aren't meeting their 2% threshold. So what you hear President Trump talking about, it's not something he's dreaming about down in Mar-a-Lago, isolated from where the American people are. It's reflective of where the American people are. But then to your last point, Danielle, I'll wrap up with this. It's a very small number that somehow views Russia as the party here that should win and sides with Russia. I mean, overwhelmingly Americans want to see Ukraine win. They believe that that's in the interest of the United States, although as we see, they don't believe right now that Ukraine is winning. They see Russia as winning.

What does your poll show about Republican support for Ukraine?

RZ: I mean the Republican party continues to be just about half in terms of supporting Ukraine, supporting sending weapons. There's 75% of Democrats and a polarity of Republicans.

Again, that goes back to a point I made earlier. I think the hesitation on the part of the Republicans is in part driven by President Biden and his policies because overall there is broad support for Ukraine and the recognition, I think like 75% Americans say, "Hey, it's in the US interest for Ukraine to win."

And then when you give them additional information, and Dany and Marc, you both have worked on this, but we continue to see what happens if you provide respondents with arguments that would impact their support for giving Ukraine aid, it really does impact their support. If you talk about kind of dominoes; lose Ukraine, it's going to lead to escalation in Europe and perhaps attack on a NATO ally, then it jumps to 71% and Republicans see a bump there as well.

How does messaging and explaining the importance of American assistance to Ukraine change how supportive voters are?

RZ: So what this section in Ukraine that stands out to me is that if you just leave the American people without giving information, they're kind of generally supportive. But if you add arguments in favor that just appeal to common sense, they become a lot more supportive.

Your poll shows an interesting dynamic where a majority of Americans want to both be involved on the world stage but also pay more attention to issues at home. How do you reconcile both of those sentiments?

RZ: One of our questions that we talk about America leading the world, we ask, "Hey, do you believe the US is better served by withdrawing from international affairs and focusing more attention to problems at home?" And you see that, yeah, there's about 62% that agree with that statement. Right? That does reflect their point of view. They want to focus on things at home, but that's not the end of the story Dany, right?

It's an and here, not an or. And that's something we emphasize a lot at the Reagan Institute. Sure, we got to focus the things at home. The American people want that, and that's a priority, the common good. But at the same time, those same respondents can say, "Hey, not just 62%, 86% would say a strong US military is essential to maintaining peace and prosperity at home and abroad." They recognize that, or 78% of respondents say "US leadership and engagement international events is essential for promoting trade and boosting our economy."

Does the public agree with the prevailing elite mentality that America cannot address both domestic and foreign concerns because “we suck”?

RZ: That mentality, Dany, the 'we suck' mentality is plaguing the far right in our country and the far left, but it is fundamentally not reflected the views of the American people, the overwhelming number. And that's what's so great about this poll. We talked about this last time, but one of the reasons why we spend the money on this to get the experts to do it is because Reagan fundamentally trusted the views of the American people. And when there was an issue that needed to engage the American people he trusted, he can engage with them on it and persuade them. And we kind of take that legacy and invest it in this polling, and I'll read one that you referenced earlier, but I'll play it out again when we ask them, "Hey, the US has a moral obligation to stand up for human rights and democracy wherever possible in international affairs?"

Hard to argue within that framing of the question. There's some sort of self-interested hook. 77% say they either strongly support that or somewhat support that. That's Republicans and Democrats, MAGA and non MAGA. It just shows an overwhelming view on the part of American people that we have a role here that is to do good for ourselves and for people around the world who share our values.

Do you think President Trump realizes how internationalist his base is?

RZ: I'm hopeful that if there's a Trump II, a second Trump administration... One thing we know about President Trump, he knows where his voters are, where he knows where his supporters are, that he looks at this polling. Because what I think is happening here, and this is not reflecting the poll, but my own sense of looking at these issues, the dynamics in the Republican Party, is that the base, those people that are voting in primaries, those people that are attending the Lincoln dinners in Republican clubs across the country, perhaps they don't share this worldview, but they are a very small slice of MAGA voters. They're very small slice of the seventy-plus million people that have voted and will vote for President Trump. And you want to get at that share of the Republican electorate.

Is there a divide between Republicans and Democrats on support for Israel?

RZ: On Israel, you're really not seeing this Republican-Democrat divide. To your point, Dany, Israel has a right to continue military action in Gaza until it has removed the threat posed by Hamas 46% support that Israel's military action in Gaza has gone long enough. It's time for a ceasefire 43% agree with that. You do have this divide there, but it's not a long party lines, it's what others have emphasized that it plays out in this poll, what you really see is the under-thirty demographic. That if you go into the cross tabs, that's where you see what's driving these numbers. "Do you support or oppose U.S sending weapons to Israel" for example, Dany? You have roughly close to 50%, just under 50% that would somewhat oppose or strongly oppose sending weapons to Israel in that under 30 demographic.

Everybody else 30 or over it flips. They're far more supportive. Similarly, I'll give one other to you, and this demographic point is obviously consequential. It goes to college campuses, which comes close to your view. You have the under 30 demographic 'Israel's military action and Gaza has gone along enough. It's time to first ceasefire.' 53% of those under 30 agree with that point of view.

What are your overall findings on American and Republican views on China?

RZ: I think not much has changed since the last survey with respect to China. The overwhelming takeaway is Americans don't feel that we have a coherent or clear strategy on how to deal with China. And this is where I think the instincts in American people, this kind of notion, trust the American people. They actually have some insight on the, so-called sophisticated elite domain of foreign policy.

Actually, they're onto something, right? We don't have a coherent approach on how we deal with China given its growing military. That is really, I think, achieving military superiority over the United States, an economy that is challenging us economically. They're boxing us out around the world. I mean, you just look at recent reporting on the China's presence and in Peru and the Western hemisphere.

So I think that's reflected in the poll. And then what we've seen really since the Trump administration was in office a recognition that China is the threat and that really hasn't changed.

71% of MAGA Republicans are concerned about China isolating Taiwan and 67% of MAGA Republicans support increasing a US military presence near Taiwan. Does the MAGA group want to move all of America’s national security focus to China and Taiwan?

RZ: This is not some sort of endorsement of moving all our national security and defense focus to the Indo-Pacific and saying where you don't have an interest in Europe. But it is consistent with what we talked about earlier in terms of recognizing that American prosperity and peace really relies on American leadership in the world beginning with a military presence that is the anchor, the Taiwan piece in itself. I mean, some of those numbers Marc outperform where the total respondents are overall. So in terms of isolation of Taiwan being a top concern, that 68% were either very concerned or somewhat concerned.

And then the military buildup is here. Interestingly, they Republicans underperform, whether it's MAGA or non-MAGA where it's about 82% that either are very concerned or somewhat concerned, as well, or would support it in the case of military buildup.

What does your poll show up about support for banning TikTok?

RZ: TikTok is one where we have good responsible legislators who understand the threat and are leading on it, despite the fact the electorate's not with them. Think about the 41% of Americans support banning TikTok compared to 44% that oppose a ban, right? So here you have a case that, and you just have to kind of look at the issue set, go a little bit deep, and you see the threat opposed to how TikTok as an app, social media is just collecting at a rate that none of the other social media apps collect, to know that this is a real problem, but to a point made earlier with respect to Ukraine, it applies here to TikTok as well.

When you give them more information and you say, okay, but there's potential mass security and privacy concerns concerning the app, it jumps by 10 points that 41% goes to 51% supportive of the ban.

Do you think foreign policy is going to sway voters’ opinions in this election?

RZ: If you look at 1980, right? When Reagan was running against Carter, there very much was a emphasis on foreign policy and national security, a real palpable sense in the electorate that they had two different choices, and America was at risk of decline in losing to the Soviet Union in a number of different ways. And despite the fact we think of that election is where Reagan said, Hey famously, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" There was very much a discussion about what posture the United States should take via the Soviet Union, and that mattered in the election. I think that's probably the better parallel analogy for today. The candidate should be focusing on this.

Are you safer now than you were four years ago? He had the whole litany, right? Are you better off now? Can you buy more than you did four years ago? Does your money go as far? Are you safer now?

If you could go to Mar-a-Lago now and brief Trump on the findings of your poll, what would you tell him?

RZ: "People will tell you that to be a MAGA voter means to be some sort of 'build the wall and turn away from the world.' That's actually not where your voters are. Mr. President, your voters support you because they view you as a strong leader and they think you'll make America strong. And this poll demonstrates that a MAGA voter wants America to be strong in the world. They understand that when America is strong and leading in the world, it accrues to their prosperity and peace and lifestyle they want in America. That's the key message from the poll, and that's what you're seeing from the MAGA voters."

Read the transcript here.

SHOWNOTES

2024 Reagan Institute Summer Survey (June 17, 2024)

Reagan Foundation 2024 Summer Survey Executive Memo (Executive Memo from the pollsters, 2024 Reagan Institute Summer Survey, June 11, 2024)

Reagan Foundation 2023 Summer Survey Executive Memo (Executive Memo from the pollsters, 2023 Reagan Institute Summer Survey, June 20, 2023)

The myth of MAGA isolationism (Marc Thiessen, Washington Post, June 25, 2024)

Recall the mediators and deploy American might against Hamas instead (Roger Zakheim, The Washington Post, May 15, 2024)

Ukraine’s Freedom Forge (Jane Harman, Mara Rudman, Roger Zakheim, Real Clear Politics, April 12, 2024)

Biden needs to learn from Carter about standing up to our adversaries (Roger Zakheim, Fox News, February 19, 2024)

Americans want more intervention in foreign affairs: poll (Leo Shane III, Air Force Times, June 17, 2024)

China's Massive Military Buildup Is Worrying Americans (Newsweek, June 17, 2024)

Americans' Top Foreign Policy Priorities in 2024 (Pew Research Center, April 23, 2024)

More Americans Say U.S. Is Not Helping Ukraine Enough (Megan Brenan, Gallup, April 12, 2024)

Reagan’s message crushes the Republican right on global issues (Marc A. Thiessen, The Washington Post, December 8, 2023)

Ronald Reagan Offers a Lesson for Biden on Iran (Matthew Frakes, Time, November 1, 2023)

The Reagan Lesson for the Trumpian Right on Ukraine and China (Kate Bacheldor Odell, WSJ, May 19, 2023)