#WTH No we're not losing to Iran

Don't be ridiculous

“Fears about global economic fallout…” — NYT

“Why little was done to head off oil’s Strait of Hormuz problem” — NYT

“Trump urged uprising, but as bombs fall, Iranians are too scared to move” — WaPo

“Unpopular war makes friendship with Trump a liability for European leaders” — WaPo

“Trump may be unable to end the war he started with Iran, even if he wanted to” — CNN

I could go on, but you get the picture. America attacked Iran. We’re alienating Europe. We didn’t plan for them trying to impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians are dying in the bombing. We’re losing. There’s no endgame.

This is the thrust of news reporting in the American and European press. One might call it Schadenfreude, if there were any Schade — other than the loss of 14 troops and innocent locals — to report. But even the loss of U.S. troops is just another cudgel to throw at the US government.

We are two weeks and two days in. No one said that eliminating the Iranian threat to America and its allies would be over in a day. No one said that the regime would instantaneously fall. No one said this was a cakewalk. But this isn’t so hard either.

Let’s take on these tropes one by one:

We’re losing.

Here’s a graph of Iranian missile launches at the UAE over the course of the conflict. Why the UAE? Because it’s closest.

Critical Threats Project

Here are the coalition strikes on Iran’s retaliatory capabilities:

What do these images tell you? That Iran is increasing or sustaining its defenses or offenses? That Iran’s supply of missiles and drones is holding steady or diminishing? That Iran is winning? Only in the fantasy world of Western journalists and Iranian shills.

Iran’s strategy is clear: Outlast, inflict costs, leverage weak neighbors, leverage America’s almost useless allies. How’s that working out for them? Not amazingly well.

Will the United States be able to reopen the Strait? That depends on whether shippers are willing to risk any damage. The United States will be able to limit most Iranian aggression against commercial shipping in short order, but it won’t be able to reduce those risks to zero.

Similarly, the United States and Israel will be able to continue to attrit Iranian offensive capabilities, but not reduce them to zero.

As my colleague Fred Kagan points out, none of that means Iran is “winning.” Once upon a time we didn’t have interceptors or missile defense of any kind. And guess what? Missiles landed. They hit targets and innocent civilians. That is not the definition of victory for Iran; it is merely an additional reason that we should ensure they cannot attempt to take us hostage again.

America attacked Iran

Well, yes. Here’s a list of Iranian attacks on us. It’s not exhaustive.

• Nov 1979 – Jan 1981: Iranian students, backed by the regime, seize the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

• Apr 1983: An Iran-backed suicide car bombing at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut kills 63 people, including 17 Americans.

• Oct 1983: Iran-backed Hezbollah truck bomb targets the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut, killing 241 American service personnel.

• Dec 1983: Hezbollah operatives drive an explosives-filled truck through the gates of the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait City.

• Mar 1984: Hezbollah/Islamic Jihad kidnaps CIA Station Chief William Buckley in Beirut; he is later tortured and killed in 1985.

• Sep 1984: A car bomb attack at the U.S. Embassy Annex in Beirut kills 23 people, including two American service members.

• Dec 1984: Hezbollah hijackers take control of Kuwait Airways Flight 221, diverting it to Tehran and killing two U.S. AID officials.

• Jun 1985: Hezbollah terrorists hijack TWA Flight 847, murdering U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem and throwing his body onto the tarmac.

• Jul 1989: Hezbollah operatives murder U.S. Marine Col. William Higgins after kidnapping him a year prior during a UN peacekeeping mission.

• Jun 1996: Khobar Towers Bombing in Saudi Arabia; Iran-backed Hezbollah Al-Hijaz detonates a truck bomb, killing 19 U.S. Airmen.

• Aug 1998: U.S. federal courts later ruled Iran liable for providing material support and training to Al-Qaeda for the U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, which killed 12 Americans.

• Oct 2000: Federal courts later linked Iranian logistics and training to the Al-Qaeda bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen.

• Aug 2001: An Iran-backed Hamas suicide bombing at a Jerusalem Pizzeria (Sbarro) kills 15 people, including three Americans.

• Jul 2002: A Hamas-planted bomb at Hebrew University in Jerusalem kills nine people, including five American students.

• 2003–2011: The Pentagon estimates Iran-backed militias (e.g., Kata’ib Hezbollah) killed at least 603 U.S. troops in Iraq. Iran specifically provided Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFPs)—advanced IEDs designed to pierce American armor.

• Oct 2003: Iran-backed Popular Resistance Committees kill three U.S. diplomatic personnel in a bombing in Gaza.

• Jan 2007: IRGC-affiliated militants disguise themselves as U.S. soldiers to infiltrate a compound in Karbala, Iraq, killing five U.S. soldiers.

• Mar 2007: Former FBI Agent Robert Levinson is kidnapped in Iran; he is presumed to have died in Iranian custody.

• Dec 2019: Kata’ib Hezbollah rocket attacks on the K1 Air Base in Iraq kill one U.S. civilian contractor.

• Jan 2020: In the largest direct ballistic missile attack ever against U.S. forces, Iran strikes Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. Over 100 U.S. service members suffer Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBI).

• Feb 2021: Rocket attacks in Erbil, Iraq, wound one U.S. service member and four contractors.

• Sep 2022: An Iranian rocket attack in Iraqi Kurdistan kills an American citizen.

• Mar 2023: An Iranian drone attack on a base in Hasakah, Syria, kills one U.S. contractor and wounds five service members.

• Oct 2023: During the Oct 7 massacre, Iran-backed Hamas kills over 30 Americans and takes others hostage.

• Jan 2024: A drone attack by Kata’ib Hezbollah on Tower 22 in Jordan kills three U.S. service members.

• Nov 2024: U.S. authorities charge an IRGC asset in a plot to assassinate President Trump.

• Mar 2025: Two Iranian agents are convicted in New York for a plot to assassinate Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad.

• Jun 2025: Coordinated missile and drone strikes target five U.S. bases across Iraq and Syria.

So, yes, we attacked Iran, but it’s pretty safe to say that they started it, kept it up, and that all in all, our government was much too tolerant of Iran’s constant attacks on Americans.

We’re alienating Europe

Seriously? Spain’s PM called the war illegal. Ireland has denounced the war. France’s Macron says the war is “outside the framework of international law.” The UK’s Starmer initially refused US access to our own aircraft on UK bases.

Let’s review the bidding. What did Europe do to save Ukraine from Russia? Built a pipeline to circumvent Ukraine. What did they do when Russia violated the Minsk Accords? Nothing. What did they do when Russia again invaded Ukraine? Waited for America to save them. Of course, the same was true in the Balkans. In World War II. In World War I.

Our NATO allies dragged Barack Obama into an attack on Libya that he didn’t want, and then abandoned the country to al Qaeda. Our NATO allies have serially disinvested in their own defense and refused to honor their collective commitment to invest two percent of their GDP in defense.

So now they’re refusing to honor the “responsibility to protect” that they bleat about, and this after the Iranian regime’s murder of 30,000+ Iranians in January; and are refusing to support their NATO ally in support of a Middle East free of Iranian threats and terror. But we’re alienating them? Sure Jan.

Failure to plan for mining the Strait of Hormuz

What are we, deaf? How many times has the Tehran regime threatened to close the Strait? Gemini says it’s 11 times since 2000. I’m betting it’s actually more, but 11 is enough. One may not like Donald Trump, not support this war in Iran, and not agree with its (unstated) goals, and still appreciate that our CENTCOM Combatant Command is made up of military professionals who have ears.

Mine clearing is dangerous. Ensuring Kharg Island is emptied of Revolutionary Guards is an important first step. That’s done. Ensuring the coastline is clear is the next job, and it’s not simple. Bringing mine clearing in is not the work of a moment, and it wasn’t the first priority in this war. That was targeting and eliminating Iran’s launchers and defense industrial complex. That’s at least 80 percent done. Then they’ll deal with the Strait.

The accusation that we weren’t prepared is just rubbish. Again, some may not agree with the goals of the war, but that is a far cry from accusing our military of not having a plan, without any probative evidence.

Iranians are dying

Well yes, this is a war. More than 30,000 Iranians gave their lives to challenge this regime before they ever knew America and Israel were coming. They adjudged it worth it to rid themselves of almost a half century of tyranny. No one wants to die in an air raid, and you can be reasonably certain that the United States and Israel are doing their utmost not to kill civilians. You cannot say that about Iran’s targeting of civilian sites throughout the Gulf and Israel. So yes, Iranians are going to die in this war. And yes, it’s going to be terrible. But think about how many thousands of lives this regime has extinguished — Iranian and otherwise — and imagine that perhaps, soon that regime will be gone.

We’re losing

No we’re not. This is nuts, untethered to military reality. Here’s one of the more dry and modest assessments you could read. Then decide.

Iran’s attacks have not yet affected US military operations and fallen far short of Iran’s hopes for attacks with thousands of missiles and drones, however. The available evidence supports the assessment that the combined campaign is achieving its military objectives thus far but is not yet complete. Declaring the campaign a failure at this stage is therefore premature. The collapse of Iranian drone and missile attacks—down significantly since February 28—presents a compelling picture that the military campaign is degrading ballistic missile and drone capabilities.[Continued drone and missile attacks—not to mention the remaining 150 launchers—indicate that these assets remain a threat and will need to be fully suppressed, of course. The maritime threat will need to be similarly suppressed. But the military campaign against both the missile and drone attacks and the maritime attacks must be evaluated based on whether the evidence shows progress is being made towards the military objectives. It is far too early to forecast whether the current military campaign will achieve overall political objectives or how long disruptions to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz will last. But declaring this operation a military failure is premature while the campaign remains underway and incomplete, particularly as the evidence clearly shows progress being made towards accomplishing its core objectives.

In addition, consider another possibility: You’re reading propaganda generated by Trump haters in the media, loons on the far left, loons on the far right, or paid agents of the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians. (Yes, there’s some overlap there.)

There’s no endgame

Here is where critics make a point. If there is an endgame, we are not certain what it is because the President won’t make it clear. It doesn’t necessary follow that he doesn’t have one, but the all-over-the-map statements aren’t helping. Are we eliminating the nuclear and missile threat? Suppressing the terror threat? Or liberating the Iranian people? In my view, one and two can’t happen with any seriousness absent number three.

However, we do know that both the Israelis and the Americans are telling Iranians to stay home and take cover, and that the moment is not right for them to return to the streets. That suggests there will be such a moment, but we don’t know.

Donald Trump should sit down behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office and address the nation. He should make clear what his goals are. He should give us a sense of how he thinks things are going, and what his expectations are. That would be both wise and good. But even if he doesn’t do that, that doesn’t mean we are losing or that defeat is not on the cards for the regime.

Finally

For decades, the West has talked itself out of dealing with persistent threats from Iran and its proxies; for decades the West has persuaded itself that there is some outcome in which this regime does not get either a breakout capability or nuclear weapons; for decades, we and all Iran’s neighbors have allowed these Islamist tyrants to bully us, violate treaties, violate laws, kill our people, and otherwise intimidate and deter us.

It may well be that this war will not end with a clear alternative leader or a transition that gives us huge confidence. We may think about a need to press harder or do more to support a new government. But none of that means it was wrong to finally address this malign regime. Sometimes, acting is better than standing by and waiting for the Iranians to kill again.