In the wake of revelations of horrifying crimes against humanity in Bucha and other towns freed from Russian occupation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the world to action. But what action? Putin has killed before, both at home and abroad. Millions of Syrians can testify to his brutality, as can Russians, Chechens, and too many more to count. David Kramer, former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Rights and Labor as well as Europe and Eurasia joined the pod to talk Putin’s crimes and next steps.
The United States and the European Union imposed additional sanctions in the wake of the Bucha revelations; but those sanctions still exempt Russian oil and gas sales, as well as the transactions of energy megalith Gazprombank. Putin is hauling in billions more because of skyrocketing energy prices. The United Nations also voted to kick Russia off the Human Rights Council (HRC), a first for the world body… underscoring its longtime uninterest in human rights violations and the continued presence of the People’s Republic of China on the HRC. Rape and murder, no! Rape and murder and concentration camps in China… ok!
On the pod, Kramer talks about the opportunity the world has to take stock of the fact that democracies have allowed Putin’s cronies to launder their money and their reputations, buying real estate, sports teams, passports and businesses with impunity. We know who these oligarchs are, yet have looked aside because profit > principle. Perhaps it’s time for principle to rear its head in policymaking circles in Europe and the United States. Just a thought.
HIGHLIGHTS
Kramer: [We] shouldn't treat this as something out of the ordinary for Russian forces. We've got to remember how Putin came to power in 1999, by overseeing a brutal campaign against Russian citizens who happened to live in Chechnya, with the leveling of Grozny, the capital. We've seen it in Syria. We've seen brutal measures used before in Ukraine the first time Russia invaded in 2014. But we're seeing it perhaps more graphically and visually this time and on a larger scale. So it is absolutely horrific. Unfortunately, it's not out of character for Mr. Putin.
Kramer: This is I think the only way that Putin knows how to operate. And I think it also reveals the abysmal training of Russian forces. This activity, this behavior is not something I think you would find in most other militaries, at least those in democratic societies. But it's a reminder that Russia is not a democracy. Russia has actually become a totalitarian system where the last vestiges of independent media, Ekho Moskvy on radio, [inaudible 00:15:25] and even Novaya Gazeta, the last really independent newspaper, either closed down or suspended their activities.
Kramer: And Putin thinks he can get away with this. And in part, Dany, I think he has. After Chechnya, he then became president elected in March 2000 and has been dealt with as a regular leader. He was at G8 meetings remember, until Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014. And so he hasn't paid a price for this behavior. There were allegations, as you know, of war crimes in Syria and there was no price that Russia really paid to speak of.
Kramer: The first time we imposed sanctions of any consequence was after his invasion of Ukraine in 2014. But most of those came after the shoot down of the Malaysian airliner that killed 298 people. I think had that not happened, we would not have seen the sanctions that were imposed in 2014.
Kramer: There wasn't a great deal of coverage in Chechnya in '99. Syria was hard to cover for Western journalists. And let's also I think be candid about this. The Ukrainians look more like we do. And so I think there is more concern for what's happening to them than perhaps for people who look a little different.
Kramer: [W]hen the Putin regime doesn't respect the rights of Russian citizens, it certainly isn't going to respect the rights or lives for that matter of Ukrainians or Georgians or Syrians, whatever the case may be, nor is it going to respect concepts of sovereignty and territorial integrity. So we shouldn't be surprised when Putin invades other countries, when he threatens use of nuclear weapons, when they engage in this horrific behavior where you've seen exposed in Bucha and sadly I fear will be exposed in other places. This is the worst crackdown on human rights in Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union, I think you'd have to go back decades to find anything comparable
Kramer: You mentioned Vladimir Kara-Murza who himself was poisoned twice in Russia. So they poison their own people. They assassinate prominent opposition figures like Boris Nemtsov who was shot and killed yards from the Kremlin in 2015. We've seen the treatment of others, Anna Politkovskaya, going back to 2006, who was shot and killed in her apartment building. And they don't, by the way, limit their campaign to people inside Russia of course. They went after Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer who was poisoned with polonium in 2006 just after Politkovskaya was killed.
Kramer: The only person who will end this, at least on the Russian side, is Putin. I don't think Russian negotiators that have been meeting with their Ukrainian counterparts in Turkey are likely to produce any deal that Medinsky, the Russian representative, can sell back to Putin. Putin has shown no signs of interest in a negotiation of a ceasefire or an agreement
Kramer: We should have a more concerted campaign promoting defections among Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine, that we should target them with leaflets, with direct messaging and encourage them to realize that they have been sent essentially on a suicide mission. Their leaders don't give a damn about them, they're cannon fodder essentially, and that they are there and they're going to get killed while also possibly engaging in war crimes themselves.
Kramer: If Putin doesn't have the soldiers to carry out his orders… he becomes an emperor with no clothes. And possibly an emperor no more. And so our view is the more that we can encourage defections among the Russian forces, providing them food, shelter, even financial incentives to defect. Putin has I think limited ability to beef up his military presence in Ukraine. He's got the estimated around 70, possibly 75%, of his capable ground forces already deployed to the situation. And so the more that are picked off, the more that defect, the fewer opportunities he will have for people to carry out his agenda.
Kramer: The thing I think we have done fairly well is to beef up military presence, U.S. and other NATO members, in the NATO countries along Russia's and Ukraine's borders. But where I think we have made a repeated and unnecessary mistake is telegraphing to Putin what we won't do when president Biden has numerous time said we will not put U.S. forces on the ground. I'm not saying that's the wrong position to take. I just don't understand why we would let Putin know what our limitations are.
Kramer: I'd much rather have him guess about what we might do. And the last thing I'll say is we also can't always be in defense or response mode. When Putin threatens nuclear weapons, when he threatens to use chemical and biological weapons, we need to remind him, by the way, that we're a pretty big nuclear power ourselves, and so any reckless actions like that will be met with the power of the United States. And I think we've been a little too defensive on these and have let Putin kind of instill some fear and intimidate us too much.
Kramer: They will, I think, run into problems when either the bodies are brought home eventually, a lot of them are being sent to Belarus apparently for handling, or the families discover that their sons are not coming home one way or another, or they're not able to reach them. And so I do think that this is a liability. Putin has shown a sensitivity to body bags in the past and has tried to cover them up. The Russian Parliament last year, past legislation that provided for mobile crematoria so that bodies could be cremated sort of on the spot, if you will. That reduces funerals, or at least that's the thinking behind it, that it reduces the likelihood that funerals will take place and other kinds of ceremonies to mark the killing or the deaths of these individuals.
Kramer: I, for example, was not bothered by President Biden's comments when he said, for God's sakes, this man cannot remain in power. He wasn't specifically calling for regime change. He was, I think, stating a view, which is, we all think he shouldn't remain in power because of the danger he poses and the atrocities that he is responsible for. And so I think that was an important signal actually to our European allies in particular, that there is not going to be a return to business as usual. And I worry that some Europeans will press for that.
Kramer: I can can't think of a single agreement, including arms control agreements, by the way, that Putin or the Russian side have signed that they have actually abided by. The INF treaty. Other arms control agreements. The two Minsk agreements in 2014, 2015. The Sarkozy Peace Plan of Georgia in 2008. The list goes on, and on and on. So why anyone would think that Putin's word on a document means anything is a mystery to me.
Kramer: One is we should have gone after this dirty Russian money long ago. It shouldn't have taken Putin's invasion of Ukraine for us to recognize that ill-gotten Russian gains are corrupting and polluting our financial systems, our real estate markets. They're buying sports teams. They're trying to launder their reputation, and we should have taken this step long, long before. It also means we should not lift these sanctions after the dust settles, however it settles after this, because this isn't just about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is about getting our house in order and stopping the enabling behavior that we have provided corrupt authoritarian leaders around the world, not just in Moscow.
Kramer: [T]here is an opportunity here to deal a huge, possibly even fatal blow to Putin. And if we were to deal a fatal blow to Putin, it is a fatal blow to authoritarianism, writ large. Chinese are watching this. The Iranians are watching this. And so this is an opportunity to really deliver a huge blow to Putin's efforts, to restore influence over the region, to destroy a democratic country that borders Russia, and to impose his will, however he deems fit.
Kramer: There are those who worry, well, what might come after Putin could be worse. You know what? I don't like what we have right now. I view what we have right now, sitting in the Kremlin as an existential threat to us, to Russia's neighbors, to Russia's own people, for that matter, when we were talking about the domestic situation earlier. I'm willing to roll the dice a little bit and see what comes later. It could be worse, could be better, and so there's the optimist in me.
Find the whole transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
“Ukraine: civilian casualty update 4 April 2022,” (United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 4/4/22)
“Biden: Putin should face war crimes trial for Bucha killings,” (AP News, 4/5/22)
“Biden calls for a Putin ‘war crimes trial’,” (The Washington Post, 4/4/22)
“Here’s what to know,” (The Washington Post, 4/4/22)
“U.S. pushes to suspend Russia from U.N. human rights body,” (Reuters, 4/4/22)
“Outrage widens over Russian attacks Zelensky now calls a ‘genocide’,” (The Washington Post, 4/3/22)
“U.S. and European leaders express outrage at the images from Bucha.” (NYT, 4/3/22)
“‘This Is True Barbarity’: Life and Death Under Russian Occupation,” (The New York Times, 4/3/22)
“Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas,” (Human Rights Watch, 4/3/22)
“Russian retreat leaves trail of dead civilians in Bucha, a town near Kyiv,” (Reuters, 4/2/22)
“Number of Ukraine refugees passes worst-case U.N. estimate,” (AP News, 3/30/22)
“US Senate approves resolution probing Putin for war crimes,” (AP News, 3/15/22)
“Human Rights Council to establish Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine,” (United Nations, 3/4/22)
“Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: ‘I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation.’” (International Criminal Court, 2/28/22)
“The Bucha massacre should prompt a forceful response,” by The Editorial Board (The Washington Post, 4/4/22)
“Ukraine Isn’t yet a ‘Strategic Defeat’ for Putin,” by The Editorial Board (Wall Street Journal, 4/3/22)