WTH: Russia is losing in Ukraine. Now what?
Amb. Kurt Volker joins us to talk Ukrainian victories, Russian losses & Biden slow-rolling
Three things from this week’s pod with our guest Amb. Kurt Volker:
The U.S. could do more. Ukraine would win faster. We want that.
Putin has already lost, though Ukraine has yet to liberate all of its territory. His buddy in Beijing is really nervous.
No one is thinking seriously about reconstruction.
The Ukrainian military has executed a stunning turnaround in the war with Russia, and has taken back thousands of square miles of territory. Where they have strategy, skill, determination, momentum and better weapons, the Russians have… none of that. And it shows. That’s why Putin is escalating his rhetoric, abandoning the calibrated “special operation” approach and lighting his hair on fire. That won’t lead to victory for Moscow… and it could be the beginning of the end for the Russian dictator. Let’s hope.
Still, it’s not all wine and roses from here on out… There’s a tough and cold winter ahead, for both Europeans, Ukrainians fighting and Russians slogging on foreign soil. There’s much more territory still in Russian hands. Putin is threatening major escalation. And each day conflict continues, more people die.
Still, the Biden administration refuses to plan ahead, even though it has blown through each and every one of its self-imposed “red lines” — no stingers? Yes stingers. No HIMARS? Yes HIMARS. No longer range ammo? Well, you get the picture. In addition, the administration has failed to ask Congress for any aid beyond the first quarter of 2023. Senior officials still wring their hands about “escalation,” and “World War III.” Really? Putin can’t beat Ukraine, but he’s going to take on… America?
Senior officials are also worried about depleted weapons stocks. They’re right (we’re going to do a pod on this), but, um, if we don’t have the stocks to help Ukraine kick Russia’s butt, how exactly are we supposed to be fighting the Chinese? Isn’t there a lesson here?
Finally, and as we’ve said repeatedly, the Ukrainians are fighting a fight that is good for NATO, good for Europe, good for American national security. They are the ones giving their lives, not us. A victory here will be a critical blow to the new axis of evil. It would be nice if Europe were more serious. But it would be even nicer if the United States was.
HIGHLIGHTS
The Biden role?
KV: Let's first, right upfront, let's give credit to the Biden Administration for shipping Ukraine $15 billion worth of American weapons. Ukraine would not be standing without that. So we have to give credit for that. I wish it was faster. I wish we didn't have limits on some of the things we're providing them. I wish we could have done so much more, so more quickly. But we did help through our equipment save Ukraine.
Why are the Russians losing?
KV: On the Russian side, poor training, poor equipment, poor leadership, poor command and control, lack of motivation in the forces, low morale. It's a really decrepit force. On the Ukrainian side, you have incredibly high motivation and determination. These people are fighting for their families, their homes, land. They are determined.
Will they get Crimea (invaded in 2014) back?
KV: I think, yes, they can take back all the territory, including Crimea and Donbas. And the reason for that is I think the Russian military is on the verge of collapsing in terms of offensive capability and even defensive capability. With Crimea, if the Ukrainians are able to cut it off at the Kerch Strait Bridge, the ground line of communication from Rostov through Donbas and Kherson, those forces are going to start feeling a little bit isolated. And Ukrainians have been able to strike the naval bases of Sevastopol. That's the big one. The one that really matters.
I would expect that before the winter, you're going to see the Ukrainians take Kherson, the city, and that part of Kherson's province that is west of the Dnieper River, as it comes down into the Black Sea. And they'll probably take some more of Donbas before the winter sets in.
What’s ahead?
KV: I'd expect the fighting to kind of stabilize a little bit during the winter months. And that's going to be really hard for the Russians. The Ukrainians again are home. They're going to have food, fuel, logistic, supplies, et cetera. And the Russians are deployed in the field, and they're going to have a hard time with all of that. And the Ukrainians will keep using the HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System] and keep using artillery to take out Russian logistical support.
Could we be helping more?
KV: What we have not done is given Ukrainians longer range shells, which we have. They could fly as far as 150 kilometers or even 300 kilometers in a different type one, it's called the ATACMS. And we're not giving them that for reasons that don't make any sense. We are telling the Ukrainians, "Don't attack Russian territory. So you can fight the Russians in your territory, but don't fire into Russia."
And I remember back in February and March arguing about this. We wouldn't give them stingers. We wouldn't give them the fighter aircraft that they were asking for. We wouldn't give them armor. We wouldn't give them heavy artillery. We've broken all of those thresholds now. And we just failed to understand that Russia doesn't want to escalate against us or against NATO. They're having a hard time fighting Ukraine. The last thing they want us to drag more countries into this.
Nukes?
KV: Same thing about use of nuclear or chemical weapons. Yes, it's a risk. We have to be very conscious of this. It's very dangerous, very ... It would be awful if they did it. But at the same time, I think the Russian military knows that any strategic use of nuclear weapons would obliterate Russia because we wouldn't stand for it. And any tactical use of nuclear weapons would definitely draw Western forces in against those Russian forces. And that would eliminate the Russian military capability. So they don't want that either.
So why isn’t the Biden administration going all in?
KV: …one thing I've heard, another excuse is, "Oh, well, we don't want to deplete our own supplies." Well, what are our supplies for, other than protecting against Russia?" And Ukraine is engaging in a masterful job of threat reduction right now…. [And] another point that I think is really important because we're starting to get some questions in Congress. "How much is this costing us? And where's this money going and why are we doing this? Isn't this really expensive?" People need to understand that we're not giving money to Ukraine. We are giving money to the Pentagon. And the Pentagon is buying American weapons. And those are going to Ukraine and we can track them and follow them so we know where they are, and you can see on the battlefield. Ukrainians are using them.
What’s up with Putin [recorded before his “I’ll nuke you, partial call up speech]?
KV: So let's start with the Shanghai Cooperation [event]. I think this is quite embarrassing for Putin. People were speculating that, "Oh, China's going to help out Russia. Are they going to sell or supply arms," things like that." What does he get from China? He gets kind a cold shower and Xi tells him, "I'm concerned about what you're doing."
He also gets a bit of a cold shower from [Indian PM] Modi, which I don't think he expected, because Modi's basically saying, "Look, sell me cheap energy and I'll buy it." But here, I think it's gotten to a point, especially all the war crimes and atrocities that even from these people that otherwise were either passively supportive or neutral, they're telling him that this is not good. So that's the one side
Could there be a general mobilization? [Putin ordered only a very partial one right after we recorded.]
KV: So when it comes to a general mobilization, I don't think Putin's going to do that for a variety of reasons. One is he's trying to shield the Russian population of Russia from any sacrifices, any impact because of the war. He's opened recruitment centers now in Moscow and St. Petersburg, something he had avoided before, but it's still voluntary. He's trying to avoid any kind of direct impact like that.
Then he has a different problem, which is literally they've destroyed half of their combat capability right now and they can't produce new equipment and new ammunition easily. And so they get people in who have zero training or experience, so they can do a general mobilization; what do they do with them? They don't have the war fighting capability and they don't have the equipment and the kit to give these people. So how would they actually use these people if there was a general mobilization?
Could Putin be at risk?
KV: [H]e's put himself at risk. He has basically defined himself as a builder of Russian lands, a new Peter the Great. He's committed to this military operation. He denies Ukraine's existence as a people and as a national identity. And he has pushed Russia into this and maintained it. So he has no way out other than success, and there won't be success. So he's on the plank now. That's one big problem for him, because he can't stop.
What happens inside Russia though? There's no mechanism for people removing him or an election or put somebody else in charge. There's no mechanism for that at all. It's a dictatorship.
So it reminds me of what I learned as an intelligence analyst, my very first professional job, is that the most likely scenario of things, when you analyze it, is the continuation of present trends. Everything will continue as it is. And that is true every single day up until the day that it's wrong. The hard thing is figuring out what causes the change. And we can't say. What's going to snap in Russia that will undermine Putin or have the country implode? Who knows what it would be, but something will snap someday.
Are the Europeans going to hang tough?
KV: The Europeans so far have been willing to stare down Putin and say, "Okay, we will pay higher prices for energy, we will find alternative sources of supply, we will provide some assistance to the Ukrainians, and we will keep these sanctions in place and maybe increase them." So they've been doing it.
It's not dramatic, it's not with resolve. No one's using the words, "We have to help Ukraine defeat Russia," which are the words that you would like to hear people use. The Germans in particular have scarcely delivered any serious weaponry to Ukraine. But all that being said, they have been willing to suck it up, pay the higher energy prices, and stand up against Putin here.
So the short term is ok for Europe. What about the longer term?
KV: I think this is maybe where this question goes, is Europe has not yet internalized what it means to have a genocidal fascist and Imperialist Russia right there in Europe, willing to attack and kill. It's the same ideology and behavior that gave us World War II, and we can't allow it to turn into World War III. So it has to be stopped. And if that's the case, Europe has to really be thinking hard about making sure that Putin is defeated and making sure that everybody in Europe who's a democracy in a market economy and wants to be a secure European country is part of a secure solution.
So everybody has to be in NATO, everybody has to be in the European Union. That's the only way we're actually going to have peace in Europe in the future.
What about some GOP objections to the Ukraine aid?
KV: I think you hear people call for accountability and, "Where's the money going?", and so forth. I'm all for accountability. There should be transparency from the Pentagon and the administration; what are they doing? I think it is largely transparent already. I don't think that there's anything that's really not exposed.
But remember, we're not giving Ukrainians money. We're giving the Pentagon money, who's giving it to the defense industry, and they're producing stuff, and we're giving the stuff to the Ukrainians.
So it's actually helping rebuild our own defense industry and our supply chains.
What about postwar reconstruction?
KV: When it does come to economic reconstruction and recovery, the Ukrainians have basically said, "Give us the money and we'll rebuild." And nobody is going to do that. Nobody. So it comes then down to, "Well, how does Ukraine get its economy to recover?" And it is essential, of course. If you're going to have tax revenue, you got to have an economy to tax. And if you're going to have your own military force as sustainable, you got to have a tax revenue.
So this is essential, but there is no plan for how to do this at the moment. I have a suggestion on this, I wrote it up for CEPA on the website cepa.org, but basically, we should create a coordination body. Every G7 country or entity should appoint a senior coordinator for economic recovery of Ukraine. They should meet together with Ukrainians, listen to the Ukrainian priorities, discuss what the strategy should be to get the private sector function; not just government aid, but, "How do you get the private sector back in?" And then start chipping away at what that will take with the public funds available.
Whole transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW, September 18, 2022)
Russia-Ukraine live: highlights (Aljazeera, September 19, 2022)
Ukraine has shot down 55 Russian warplanes, U.S. general says (Politico, September 19, 2022)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW, September 17, 2022)
Military, diplomatic pressures mount for Putin as Ukraine counter-offensive advances (Times of Israel, September 18, 2022)
Russia-Ukraine live: Moscow intensifies hits on civilian targets (Aljazeera, September 18, 2022)
Russia-Ukraine live: Chances of Russia-Ukraine peace deal are now ‘minimal’ (Aljazeera, September 18, 2022)
Ukraine counter-offensive won’t change Russia’s plans – Putin (BBC, September 17, 2022)
US sends new military aid for Ukraine to boost momentum (AP News, September 15, 2022)
Russia-Ukraine live: other highlights (Aljazeera, September 18, 2022)
Ukraine keeps up pressure on retreating Russian forces – and its Western allies (NBC, September 13, 2022)
Putin’s new Ukraine problem: Even the war’s biggest supporters are growing dissatisfied (NBC, September 18, 2022)
Biden warns Putin on use of WMDs: ‘Don’t, Don’t, Don’t’ (VOA News, September 17, 2022)
Biden’s Daunting Task at the United Nations (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 15, 2022)
Ramaphosa vows cooperation with Biden but firm on Russia ties (Enca, September 17, 2022)
Ukraine’s Success Was a Surprise Only to the Russians (Department of State, September 13, 2022)
A Western Strategy for Ukraine (CEPA, August 31, 2022)
No victory for Putin (CEPA, May 9, 2022)
After Russia’s War, a Stronger Ukraine and West will Emerge (CEPA, May 2, 2022)
NATO Must Act for Ukraine (CEPA, March 21, 2022)
Desperate and Dangerous: Managing Putin (CEPA, March 15, 2022)
Six Ways to Help Ukraine Survive Right Now (CEPA, March 3, 2022)
Why Ukraine Will Win (And Why the West Should Help Now) (CEPA, January 31, 2022)
How to Survive the Winter, Confound Putin, and save Ukraine (CEPA, November 23, 2021)
Stopping the Countdown to Russian Invasion (CEPA, December 22, 2021)
Russia cannot sustain its war (Newsmax, September 1, 2022)
Ukraine can win (Fox Business, September 13, 2022)
Russia is using China to circumvent sanctions (Fox and Friends, September 14, 2022)