It’s the talk of DC, and no surprise. Three things from our post-mortem pod with Axios senior political correspondent Josh Kraushaar:
The Republican brand overall is mud.
Candidate quality matters.
Biden > Trump. Still.
It’s time to be brutally honest — the Democrats didn’t win so much as the Republicans lost the midterm elections. It was, after all, the R’s to lose. As Marc said, “we've got the worst inflation in 40 years, the worst collapse in real wages in four decades, the worst murder rate since 1996, the worst border crisis in American history, highest gas prices ever recorded, the worst increase in grocery prices since 1979, the worst rise in the cost of shelter since 1984, the worst labor shortage in American history. [Biden] is the least popular president in the history of presidential polling, except Donald Trump, going back to Harry Truman. Fox News voter analysis, 6 in 10 voters say he does not have the mental capacity to be President of the United States, and yet…”
When the guy with diminished mental capacity after a stroke can still beat your candidate, and the nation believes the president doesn’t have the mental capacity to be president but still votes for his party, it’s time for some introspection. The GOP candidates in NH, AZ, PA, GA and OH stunk. JD Vance won, but by a far slimmer margin than Governor Mike DeWine, who romped easily to reelection. In each instance, it was a MAGA guy who lost. More moderate Republicans who would have won were cut out or opted out because Donald Trump insisted on one criterion for his support: Believing the 2020 election was stolen.
There will be a lot of talk about abortion driving voters to reject the GOP. Some of it will be right, but pro-life DeSantis crushed pro-choice Crist in Florida, ditto in Ohio, so abortion is more decisive on the margins than it is in the main. But mix a terrible candidate with concerns about the future of abortion, pile on some conspiracy theories, and… the GOP wins only a handful of House seats, loses two statehouses, and is headed to a run-off in GA. Pathetic.
The coming months will be decisive. Will Donald Trump still be the standard-bearer of the GOP? Will there be a come-to-Jesus over the midterm calamity? Or will the House (and possibly the Senate) decide that the next two years should be all about Hunter Biden’s laptop… damn the economy, damn inflation, damn the border, damn the Russians, damn the nation? Good question. We’ll see soon enough.
Next week: Lessons for the Ds in the midterms… Spoiler: It’s not all wine and roses.
HIGHLIGHTS
What happened?
JK: I think we learned that candidates matter. […] But I think what we saw, and what made it unusual and a little bit surprising to me, is that the independent voters actually broke pretty evenly. In fact if you look at both the Fox exit poll and the Edison exit poll, they actually slightly favor the Democrats in the end, and that is a surprise. And it's a sign that there is a real hesitation about what the Republican party stands for, its associations with former president Donald Trump, and some of these candidates that were frankly very well to the extreme of where your average voter was. Despite the problems they have with the economy, despite the challenges they had with quality of life issues.
So this was all Donald Trump?
JK: I think that in our nationalized, partisan times, who are the leaders, who gets the most face time, that stuff matters. You saw in the exit poll almost equal number of voters thought the Republican party was too extreme and that the Democratic party was also too extreme. And the candidates that really succeeded were the moderates on both sides. Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke got crushed, and they were running to the left of their respective states.
New York is a cautionary tale for Democrats, because that's a state where crime was a major issue and you had Democrats starting from the top of their ticket ignoring that it's a top issue for voters, and Zeldin came within five points and Democrats lost four seats, including Sean Patrick Maloney, the Congressional Campaign Committee chairman.
So I think the left and its extremism doesn't sell. Two of the most successful Democratic candidates on the ballot by the way, are Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, winning about 56% of the votes. I think he got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, which is pretty impressive for a mid-term election. This is a guy who ran to the middle on education, ran to the middle on the issue of crime. Was pretty reliably liberal on abortion and said the same things that Biden did about democracy and the health of democracy, but focused on a few issues where he distanced himself from the national party. Jared Polis, the governor of Colorado, 57% of the vote in what used to be a pretty competitive state. He broke with his party on COVID rules and COVID regulation, and had a pretty darn big coalition. Henry Cuellar in Texas. We were looking at those Rio Grande Valley district that Democrats actually did fairly well in, they won two of those three, but it was the moderates that won. It was Gonzalez and certainly Cuellar who has broken with his party on abortion and on a lot of border security issues. So moderation sells, and I think Democrats did better than expected because they happened to be running against, in many of these key races, Republican candidates well to the right of where the electorate was.
Was this all about abortion, as some are saying?
JK: My initial instinct after Roe v. Wade was overturned was that the political reaction would be very state dependent, and Democrats would make the most inroads on that issue in states where the policy was on the line, where you would see significant changes in abortion rights in those states that had referenda on the ballot, or if a Republican governor got elected they'd be able to make some pretty significant changes to state law. And I think that's what we saw on election night. Michigan, you had a referendum securing abortion rights in the state which passed pretty comfortably and led to a Democratic sweep, not just of the governorship but also of the big swing races for the House and also in the state legislature, which could go Democratic. The Democrats would have full control of the Michigan government for the first time in a long while. And the exit polls, at least the Edison poll, seemed to show that abortion actually trumped the economy in Michigan, just in Michigan, which is interesting.
Pennsylvania is another example where... I don't think anybody thought Doug Mastriano was going to win, but look, if you've got a Republican governor and a Republican state legislature, they would have rolled back abortion rights, and I think that propelled a lot of voters, especially in the Philadelphia suburbs to ultimately vote not just for Shapiro but probably helped John Fetterman a lot in the Senate race too. Wisconsin's another example, abortion rights would have changed if you elected a Republican governor, and it was a split ticket decision in Wisconsin. Mandela Barnes lost to Ron Johnson, but in the governor's race, Tony Evers ran quite a bit ahead of that Senate race. He's the guy who can put a check on the Republican desire to pass pro-life legislation.
So it’s abortion rights then?
JK: I think it's true on the opposite side too, Marc, because like you said, Governor DeSantis, Governor Kemp, stalwart pro-life governors, and I think a lot of people have adjusted to the laws, the 15 week law in Florida, the six week law, I believe, in Georgia. And, you know, status quo buy. I think ultimately the laws were not as controversial as they were when they first passed, and I think people have accepted them. I think it really came down to the state. These Midwestern states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, where a lot of voters, a lot of women especially, thought that the policy was on the line and they were not just voting for candidates but they were also voting as a referendum on their position on abortion rights.
So what’s the future for the GOP?
JK: To me, we're going to start to see a clash between the Trump-vision and, perhaps, the DeSantis-vision of the Republican party. DeSantis was a big Republican success story of election night, not just winning, but winning big, and just winning and broadening the Republican party coalition in parts of the state like Miami-Dade, Osceola County, majority Hispanic counties, that had rarely voted Republican for some time or hadn't voted Republican in a long while.
That is the other path that Republicans could choose. But, frankly, there are other Republicans out there. Glenn Youngkin, Mike Pence, we're going to be hearing a lot of other names. Larry Hogan tossed his hat in the ring this week.
After this week's results… I think there's a need to really have stronger leadership speak out against sort of the problems that Trump caused the party in this midterm election, because I do think, you know, look, maybe Roe v. Wade was a big factor. But in the Senate, like we just talked about, I think it's pretty obvious, if Trump didn't involve himself as much as he did is these Senate primaries, Republicans probably hold the vast majority-
But the GOP curse didn’t affect DeSantis…? What's his magic?
JK: Two big things. Number one, he appreciated the backlash against COVID policy: excessive mask mandates, school closures, I mean, that whole bucket of frustrations that Glenn Youngkin frankly capitalized on in Virginia in 2021 and DeSantis led on…
DeSantis, I think, also capitalized by opening up the state earlier, by prioritizing in-person education for kids. That was a big factor in his governing strategy. And I also think the anti-woke - the "wokeness," you know, crime is, I think, almost part of that wokeness basket as well, but there's a... he's clearly led and spoke out in ways that even other Republicans haven't been taking on, the excesses of some of the more woke elements of the last. And you look at the polling, that's unequivocally popular, even amongst the moderate Democrats, in addition to independents and Republicans.
He even dominated in reliably D Miami Dade…?
JK: Osceola would be an even bigger surprise for me. Miami Dade, that's a Cuban-American population. The Cuban-American voter's always been more Republican than the other Hispanic vote in the state. But, boy, Osceola's right outside Walt Disney World, and it's, I think, plurality Hispanic, working class, Puerto Rican, a lot of Puerto Ricans in Osceola. I think, like... I don't have the numbers in front of me, but this is, like, a double-digit Democratic county and it's one that Republicans never came close in most of my time covering politics. DeSantis won that county comfortably this week.
So, the message that, if he chooses to run for president, has, isn't just the fact that he takes on the Democrats, he takes on the left, it's a political message. It's that he has been able to broaden the Republican Coalition. He's been able to achieve governing successes, but also win over, namely Hispanic voters, but across the board: women, suberbanites, the whole enchilada, that broadens the Republican Coalition and could be a model for the Republican party
How about governor races… Same story?
JK: Candidates matter, especially in governors' races. But you had disconnect in Ohio, where JD Vance won the Senate race, six, seven points, I think, in the end, but DeWine won by a much more comfortable margin. In New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, he probably could've won that Senate race but he decided to run for re-election for governor, when, easily, Don Bolduc lost pretty badly against Maggie Hassan.
I've been talking to a lot of folks in Pennsylvania on the Democratic side who think that Mastriano cost Oz the Senate race and that the brand, the turnout dynamic for Democrats in Pennsylvania just saved... Shapiro really brought Fetterman across the finish line in that race. And look, on the opposite side, you have New York, where Lee Zeldin didn't win the governor's race but came within five points and had coattails for all these Republican candidates running on a similar message.
Why were the polls so wrong?
JK: I actually think that the traditional poll, the poll that NBC puts out, the Wall Street Journal, the blue chip pollsters did a pretty good job. I think a lot of polling that, frankly, I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to […] I kind of rely on the most brand-name, reliable pollsters. And there's a proliferation of pollsters that just, frankly, aren't that reputable, and I think a lot of people kind of took solace in some of the numbers coming out there.
But, look, I think the bigger issue is that, look, 2020, there was a systemic undercounting of Republican and Trump voters. Some pollsters adjusted for that. It was sort of a muddle in the polling universe on how to compensate for the polling mistake in 2020. And I think there was an inherent and understandable mistrust that the polling was on the money because of all the problems two years ago.
OK, but the GOP seemed to believe in the wave too?
JK: One of the things that actually surprised me is that Republicans spent record amounts of money in these very blue districts, which, to me, suggested, and I heard directly, was that their polling, their Republican polling, was very encouraging in a way that didn't show up on election night, for the House.
Who’s going to win in the Georgia run off?
JK: I think that would give Walker a fighting chance. He's down by about a point, but that would allow Republicans to remobilize and engage, spend money. And there's a change that Libertarian votes could end up going more Republican and help Walker get across the finish line.
But if it's not the 50th seat, or 51st seat I guess, for the Republicans, then I’ve got to think Warnock has the advantage, because I'm not sure as much Republican money would go into this race. And even if it did, I just think that Walker's deficiencies as a candidate and the fact that he's down by a point already, it's just going to be hard to motivate Republican voters like what we saw two years ago.
And… AZ??
JK: Arizona is one of the most impossible states to anticipate as we learned in 2020. We now vote on partisan waves. In many states people who vote early are going to be Democrats. People who vote on the day of the election are Republican.
I do think that there's going to be a lot of Republican votes left, and I think Kari Lake has to be favored in the governor's race. She's down slightly at this point. But I think in all the other big races, including the Senate race with Blake Masters, and the Secretary of State's race that's gotten a lot of attention, I think it's going to be very hard for the Republicans to make up the difference.
But, again, there's a lot of vote out. We're kind of guessing at this point
So will DJT go quietly into that good night?
JK: No. Trump is going to create headache and misery and problems, and it's going to take leadership. It's going to take someone who can actually challenge him and actually win the affections of some of the MAGA base looking forward.
That's why DeSantis gets so much attention. I don't think it's going to be an established... It's not be someone who is viewed as not Trump-y enough. But if you have someone like DeSantis who appeals to a lot of the same voters that Trump does, and actually is a winner, and actually is a forward-looking governor, that is the ticket. That's why there's so much excitement around DeSantis and not so much around a lot of these other Republicans thinking about running.
Can DeSantis beat Trump?
JK: I think so. I think it's foolish to underestimate Trump. Trump has, if you look at the polling... If you do the polling, DeSantis is already leading Trump among college-educated Republicans. But he's getting crushed against with sort of the blue collar part of the party, the working class Republicans, or the newer Republicans that came to the party because of Trump.
The big question is, are those people just learning about DeSantis? They know who Trump is but they may not be as aware about Governor DeSantis. Is that a lagging indicator?
If it was a one-on-one matchup, I see how DeSantis could do quite well. But if it's a crowded field and Trump decides to go nuclear against DeSantis, you can kind of see how Trump also maintains his hold on the party.
Full transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
Crucial Georgia Senate race heads to Dec. 6 runoff (Axios, November 9, 2022)
Trump's new torments: Midterms dent invincibility (Axios, November 10, 2022)
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24 (Politico, November 6, 2022)
The Republican finger-pointing has begun (The Washington Post, November 10, 2022)
GOP's Blue-State Gains Could Shape $10,000 Deduction Cap's Future (The Washington Post, November 10, 2022)
Did Democrats’ warnings about democracy work? (The Washington Post, November 10, 2022)
Democrats flip state legislatures (The Washington Post, November 10, 2022)
Democrats’ Elevation Of Election Deniers Worked (Huffpost, November 9, 2022)
Anatomy of a close election: How Americans voted in 2022 vs. 2018 (CNN Politics, 11/9/22)
How the Democrats broke history (MSNBC, November 9, 2022)
Biden doesn’t loom over this year’s midterms like Trump did 4 years ago (Morning Consult, October 24, 20220
Biden’s Economy Is Second Only to One at Midterm (Bloomberg, November 8, 2022)
Federal and state spending on 2022 elections set to top $16.7 billion, making them the most expensive midterms ever (CNBC, November 3, 2022)
Biden to speak on midterm results as Democrats defy expectations, avoid GOP blowout (ABC News, November 9, 2022)
Biden's post-midterms reboot (Axios, November 9, 2022)
Major ballot results (FiveThirtyEight, November 9, 2022)
Abortion rights advocates score major midterm victories across the country (The Washington Post, November 9, 2022)
Trump's the loser as GOP falters (Axios, November 9, 2022)
Trump Lost the Midterms. DeSantis Won. (The Atlantic, November 9, 2022)
BREAKING: Trump Knows More about Ron DeSantis Than the Governor’s Own Family, with the Possible Exception of His Wife (National Review, November 8, 2022)
DeSantis wins big, with an eye toward 2024 (Politico, November 8, 2022)
DeSantis rides huge boost in Hispanic support to historic Miami-Dade victory (Miami Herald, November 9, 2022)
Dashboard: The candidates who made history (Axios, November 9, 2022)