#WTH The Fall of Assad

The butcher of the 21st century has fled Syria

Hafez el Assad took power in Syria in 1971, and ruled ruthlessly for almost 30 years until his death. One of his many sobriquets was “the butcher of Hama,” so named for the killing of some 20,000 Syrians who rebelled against his tyrannical regime in 1982. When that happened, it barely made the news; if memory serves, a small piece was relegated to page 17 of The New York Times.

While Assad was no genius, he was a shrewd operator who secured his own place in power, and Syria’s role as Iranian entrepôt and de facto ruler of Lebanon. He had hoped to hand his crown — and make no mistake, this self proclaimed “socialist” intended to keep his country in his family — to his son Bassil, who then inconveniently died in a car accident. Thus, the crown fell to Assad’s younger son, Bashar, a lesser intellect who more than made up for his many failings with a streak of viciousness that would have made his papa proud.

Now Bashar is gone, the Assads are no more, and Syria is, perhaps briefly, free. It didn’t have to be this way.

The Syrian people rose peacefully against Assad in the earliest days of the Arab Spring in 2010. He and his army quickly turned on them, opening a pandora’s box that will not easily be closed. ISIS made its way into Syria to oppose Assad. Al Qaeda was there too, as were other salafis. 14 years can’t be condensed into a few paragraphs, but suffice it to say that Assad suppressed the Syrian people with a cruelty rarely seen, even in a part of the world known for its cruelty. Half a million Syrians were murdered; millions more fled to Turkey, to Europe, and beyond. Countless decent Syrians were imprisoned; American victims were caught in the crossfire and killed by the Islamic State.

Barack Obama’s indifference to Syria, his false “red line,” and his Secretary of State John Kerry’s decision to invite Russia in to join the killing are all decisions that should stain Obama’s name forever. Obama’s willingness to allow Iran free rein in Syria, and his uninterest in the first Russian port on the Mediterranean since the end of the Cold War are perhaps footnotes in the embarrassing list of foreign policy blunders from those years. But the Syrian people will never forget that when America could have stood with the people against their tyrant, their president yawned and looked away, professing his “relief” that he had never chosen to support them.

There’s so very much more to unpack here. America’s Kurdish allies in the North have been indispensable to the security of small pockets of Syria, and to the continued incarceration of tens of thousands — not a typo — of hardened ISIS men, women, and children. Turkey has played a malign role, as it so often does, opposing the Kurds as part of its endless vendetta against the Kurdish nation, and supporting so many jihadis and their fellow travelers.

The coming days will help us understand whether there is more than a hodgepodge of rebel armies to take over. Will they stand together? Is Hayat Tahrir al Sham — once an al Qaeda ally — really reformed, or are their protestations about equal rights for all Syrians not to be taken seriously? There are more than a few players here, and with Assad gone, they will be free to turn on each other. But let’s spend a moment savoring how it all fell apart….

Institute for Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project

As anti-Assad forces marched on Aleppo a few days ago, many were shocked that government forces appeared to melt away. And as they continued to knife through Syria, unlocking prisons and liberating Assad’s captives, there appeared to be no one willing to stand against them. Imagine: This is a country where the President turned on his own people, but failed to contain them. He then asked his paymasters in Iran to help, and they sent him Hezbollah. When Hezbollah failed to prevail, Iran sent it its own forces. And when those too failed, in came the Russians — a gesture of kindness aided and abetted by the Obama administration. (I know I said that before; I just can’t help repeating it.)

Together, Syria, Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia retook much but not all of Syria. U.S. forces remained to protect small pockets and aid the Kurdish groups keeping the peace. So where were Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia over the last few days? Hezbollah has been crushed by Israel. Iran has been unable to rearm either Hezbollah or its own forces in Syria or the Assad regime, as Israel’s Air Force has been turning back flights coming into Damascus airport. Iran is also apparently still licking its wounds from an Israeli strike that hit key air defenses and elements of its nuclear weapons program. How about the Russians? They’re busy creeping up to their third year of trying and failing to defeat democratic Ukraine.

And how did this all happen? Incredibly, much of the answer goes back to October 7, 2023. In their wisdom, the leaders of Hamas in coordination with Hezbollah and Iran decided to launch an attack on unarmed Israelis in a corner of southern Israel near the Gaza border. They murdered 1200+ on that day, and my guess is that there are many in Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance who would like to turn back the clock.

Had Hamas not attacked, there would have been no ferocious Israeli counterstrike that has laid waste to Hamas (and Gaza, about which Hamas is indifferent). Had Hezbollah not begun striking Israel regularly and aggressively on October 8, causing tens of thousands of Israelis to have to leave their homes, Israel would not have launched a ferocious counterstrike on Lebanon (about which Hezbollah is indifferent). Had Iran not struck Israel twice with direct attacks, Israel would not have launched retaliatory strikes that have eliminated Iranian air defenses and frightened the Ayatollahs sufficiently that they have laid low in the weeks and months since.

Little did Yahya Sinwar think on that bloody triumphant day on October 7, 2023, that he was setting in motion a chain of events that would topple the Axis of Resistance, drive Assad from his palaces, and leave much of Hamas and Hezbollah dead. Thank God that even as American leaders appeased terrorists and their masters in the Middle East, Israel’s leaders had the resolve necessary to eliminate our shared enemies. If only we had a similar resolve.

What should the United States do now? We have no president — Biden has not spoken since fighting in Syria broke out; we have no vice president — Harris has also been silent. Only Donald Trump has been featured in news stories about the events unfolding. Trump has said clearly that it is for Syria to sort itself out, and he is right for as long as what happens in Syria doesn’t represent a threat to the United States. Let us hope, for the Syrian peoples’ sakes, that better days are ahead.

PS If you’re interested in digging deeper, here’s my colleague Michael Rubin’s first take. He has doubts about HTS’s “moderation.”

PPS I also like Charles Lister’s work at the Middle East Institute. He knows so much, it’s hard to keep up, and I don’t always agree with him, but his devotion to the Syrian people and hatred of the evils of Assad are deeply admirable.

PPPS There are a few of real Syria pros at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.