It’s a cliché to call a moment the first of the next presidential campaign. But if you’re curious how J.D. Vance is going to set himself up as a loyal vice president on the question of Iran, yet opposed to what increasingly looks like a debacle for the Trump/Vance team, here’s one element of the plan: It was Israel’s fault. More specifically, it was Bibi Netanyahu’s fault. Helping him cement that narrative will be United States Special Envoy to the Middle East and Special Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The set up
Allow me to walk you through. Here are Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman in the New York Times “scooping” how the Israeli Prime Minister got Trump to go to war:
The black S.U.V. carrying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House just before 11 a.m. on Feb. 11. The Israeli leader, who had been pressing for months for the United States to agree to a major assault on Iran, was whisked inside with little ceremony, out of view of reporters, primed for one of the most high-stakes moments in his long career.
U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office. Then Mr. Netanyahu headed downstairs for the main event: a highly classified presentation on Iran for President Trump and his team in the White House Situation Room, which was rarely used for in-person meetings with foreign leaders.
Mr. Trump sat down, but not in his usual position at the head of the room’s mahogany conference table. Instead, the president took a seat on one side, facing the large screens mounted along the wall. Mr. Netanyahu sat on the other side, directly opposite the president.
Appearing on the screen behind the prime minister was David Barnea, the director of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, as well as Israeli military officials. Arrayed visually behind Mr. Netanyahu, they created the image of a wartime leader surrounded by his team.
Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, sat at the far end of the table. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who doubled as the national security adviser, had taken his regular seat. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who generally sat together in such settings, were on one side; joining them was John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, and Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy, who had been negotiating with the Iranians, rounded out the main group.
The gathering had been kept deliberately small to guard against leaks. Other top cabinet secretaries had no idea it was happening. Also absent was the vice president. JD Vance was in Azerbaijan, and the meeting had been scheduled on such short notice that he was unable to make it back in time.
The presentation that Mr. Netanyahu would make over the next hour would be pivotal in setting the United States and Israel on the path toward a major armed conflict in the middle of one of the world’s most volatile regions. And it would lead to a series of discussions inside the White House over the following days and weeks, the details of which have not been previously reported, in which Mr. Trump weighed his options and the risks before giving the go-ahead to join Israel in attacking Iran.
Who leaked that highly classified meeting? Why? Shortly thereafter, there was another meeting with only Americans present. Per Swan and Haberman, the CIA rated Netanyahu’s regime change scenario “farcical.”
The war
Notwithstanding strongly expressed doubts from JD Vance — per Swan and Haberman again — Trump was all in. The war commenced. In its original plan, there were to be American and Israeli and Iranian elements, with Israel taking care of regime decapitation, the US taking on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and defense industrial complex, and Iranian minorities (Kurds and others) beginning to take enclaves within the country.
Might the plan have worked? Possibly. The United States is notoriously bad at regime change. Israel has never managed a similar operation. But in the event, we were never to find out, because Trump called off all internal elements of the plan, and proceeded with the air strategy.
Iran then closed the Strait of Hormuz. Contrary to the protestations of armchair generals the world over, the US military had a clear plan to wrest control away from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But Trump was spooked. Gas prices were headed up, naysayers were whispering in his ear, and the president’s political advisers — if not the president himself — were worrying about the impact on the midterms. It was time to talk offramps, and Trump’s omnipresent negotiator for everything, Steve Witkoff, was there to take the reins.
The offramp
Behind the scenes, Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their cronies in the Gulf — Qatar in particular — began floating the shape of a deal. Pakistan — !! — was deputized as middle man. A cease fire was called, called off, called again, called off again; and all the while, Trump was becoming frustrated. He was angry at the Iranians for being unserious. Angry at his allies and his critics. Angry at the Israelis for continuing to goad him to prosecute the war.
Notwithstanding repeated Iranian violations, the April 8 ceasefire kept being extended. JD Vance headed to Pakistan to seal a deal on April 11, and returned empty handed. The peace talks weren’t going well. It was unclear who was in charge in Iran, and the proposals Trump’s minions kept bringing back were serially rejected by Iranian officials.
Two things happen at this juncture: Leaks begin socializing the political class to the idea that Donald Trump is incandescently angry with Netanyahu. And Iran begins to effectively leverage Lebanon with its American negotiating partners.
Bibi
Let’s start with Bibi. Here’s the leak to favored Witkoff leakee Barak Ravid with Axios:
President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon in an expletive-laden call on Monday, two U.S. officials and a third source briefed on the call told Axios.
Why it matters: Earlier on Monday, Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the U.S. over Israel’s actions in Lebanon. On the call, Trump called Netanyahu “crazy” and accused him of ingratitude, according to two of the sources. He also put the brakes on Israel’s plan to strike Beirut.
Behind the scenes: One U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu that following through on his threats to bomb the Lebanese capital would further isolate Israel around the world.
•Two of the sources said Trump claimed he’d helped keep Netanyahu out of jail — a reference to his support during Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
•Summarizing Trump’s remarks to Netanyahu, the U.S. official said: “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
•A second source briefed on the call said Trump was “pissed” and at one point yelled at Netanyahu: “What the fuck are you doing?”
Some privy to the call insisted Trump, while irritated with Netanyahu, never used the language cited. However, when asked, Trump did not deny he was “a little bit perturbed.”
Lebanon
Two days after American-Israeli strikes on Iran began, Hezbollah began renewed attacks on northern Israel. These were the first Hezbollah attacks since November 2024, and Israel responded with force, hitting multiple Hezbollah targets as far north as Beirut. But under U.S. auspices, unprecedented direct Lebanon-Israel talks began on April 14. On April 16, a ten day ceasefire is declared in Lebanon, announced by Donald Trump; Hezbollah refused to comply. Five days later, the government of Lebanon files a complaint with the United Nations against … Iran.
Fighting continues, with sporadic ceasefires, largely ignored. And on June 5, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun gives an interview to CNN, and speaks directly to the IRGC: “It’s not your country. It’s our country … It’s not your job to interfere in our country,” Aoun said. “Our people are being killed. Our house is being destroyed. They are using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in their negotiations with the United States. It’s unacceptable.”
But what does Lebanon have to do with the Iran nuclear problem? Simple. Iran has begun claiming that it can neither negotiate nor abide by any ceasefire if Israel does not withdraw from Lebanon and leave Hezbollah alone. Yesterday, a day after Donald Trump announced a deal with Iran, foreign minister Aragchi said, “Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from [Lebanon], a full end to the war has not been achieved.”
In other words, Iran has leveraged Trump’s desperation for an offramp into a win not simply for its own survival and domination, it has leveraged it against Israel.
Or as Trump himself said, “Without the US, there would be no Israel. Without me, there would be no Israel because no other president was willing to do what I did. I have had a great relationship with Bibi. Now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon.”
Not Iran. Bibi.
And, according to Iran’s claims, its deal with the United States envisions a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. Replete with continued Iranian support for Hezbollah and its mission to destroy the State of Israel.
Don’t believe it? Read this report about Vance’s call to Netanyahu demanding Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
So?
Of course, all of this could fall apart. Trump may actually have no idea what was promised to Iran in America’s name. But Iran is already exporting oil freely in the Strait. And the United States is reportedly promising to support $300 billion in “reparations” to Iran. And sanctions relief.
Indeed, the entire deal looks like a massive capitulation to Iran. And how will Vance, who has made this deal his own, explain how his administration expended billions in order to get less than the Obama JCPOA in exchange for a complete rehabilitation of the Iranian regime?
How will Vance reconcile himself to the Tucker Carlson wing of the party he has embraced?
The Jews made us do it.
Time to hit pause. For most of us, the unknown, unknowns are bigger than the knowns.
For example, a few weeks ago it was reported we were running out of offensive and defensive missiles. Did that affect the math?
What did Xi ask of Trump? What did Trump agree to do for Xi in return? China’s oil imports plummeted 40% in May. Why? They were not on the market trying to plug the hole. If China had not drawn down reserves, … oil might have reached $150 to $200 (or $8/gallon). Instead, the Chinese drew down reserves. How long could China and the ROW draw down reserves before global economic calamity? This was about to become a very hot world war affecting almost every country.
We lifted sanctions on Russia. How did that impact the “good” war and how did the Iran War affect supplies of drones and anti-drones? Opening Hormuz by force was on the table. Hormuz was the lynchpin and Achilles heel of the Iranian strategy. We might have lost some USN vessels — maybe a thousand sailors. The USN was transiting, but we were not risking big losses. What is the calculation on that?
Yes, we hesitated, diddled, … but what was going on of which we were unaware? What was Admiral Cooper seeing of the situation inside Iran? Was it better to stop, wait, restart the bombing to send a message to the Iranian people, this war was against the Islamo-fascists and not them?
I am disappointed and find JD the least reassuring cog in the system, but there is a lot we don’t know.
Like it or not, we may be waiting to see how Iran’s leaders act in the coming months, we may be trying to get gasoline down to $3.00 in time for the election, we may be replenishing our magazines and sorting through the intelligence, we may be giving the Gulf States time to erect better defenses, … and we may be currying favor with the Gulf populations that we want peace and a non-nuclear Iran. The Gulf State regimes do not look more powerful when they rely upon the infidel Americans for defense. Allahu Akbar.
And always remember, public warnings from the US to Israel are for show. We don’t communicate to Bibi by social media. So when we ask Israelis to stop hitting Lebanaon, Israel does what it must and hits them anyway.
A lot of balls in the air, …, and no one is less pleased with this outcome more than I. I would have pressed the attacks in phase one at least 2 more weeks, but it is possible the next round of bombing would have cut power, water, and food flow. Mass starvation could follow. What were the choices? Recall, Trump announced and then withdrew “bridge and power” day. What were the trade-offs?
Let’s wait and see. The mid-term elections could decide how this war turns out.
Leaks are tools for communication. Some are accurate, some are not, some are part of the process of negotiation. I think I know the over-riding goal: No nuclear bomb during Trump’s term. The next President gets a vote. What looked like a “once and for all” turned out to be, a “don’t make me” round.
We did the easy part - physical destruction. Israel did the assassination part. All in all, it was tempting to say we were close. Were we? Probably not. Did we leave a regime that looks bad inside Iran. Oh, yes.
As for the rest, …, it’s never over until the Iranian regime is removed. Peel the onion, and another layer of IRGC murderers for Allah appears. Regime change has to come from within, and it will be a bloody mess that might go on for years — or at least through the mid-term elections. The price of gasoline and oil/gas reserves have to be restored. Fertilizer for next spring has to be accumulated. So, we have a phony peace in a phony war to stop nuclearization of Iran. It’s a chapter, not a finale.