Good evening all. With apologies that after posting almost every weekday, we slowed down. There’s too much going on. We’ve got a pod about the disastrous speaker debacle that dropped this morning (summary and highlights manana), another pod with the epic Ruth Wisse on antisemitism next week. (A taste of what we’re talking about in the pic below.) A great piece from Marc about why Biden’s nominee to be ambassador to Israel is the wrong man at the wrong time. Dany before the Senate Banking Committee on terrorist financing on Thursday. A lot.
But there’s another issue that needs addressing: The question of a wider war. The articles, scare headlines, White House messages, and global handwringing about the spread of the Hamas-Israel war comes down to a few things. The first is a spread to Lebanon. Hezbollah has been shooting half a dozen and more rockets a day into Israel; numerous Israeli soldiers and more Hezbollah terrorists have been killed. Word from inside Lebanon is that neither the Lebanese people or Iran’s Hezbollahis really want to join Hamas’ fight. There are a few reasons for that, among them Hezbollah’s stark unpopularity in Lebanon, the fear of a 2006 war redux in which the Lebanese people paid the heavy price for Iran’s desire to kill, and a not unreasonable calculation that this time, Hezbollah will not be left standing.
But the decision is not Hezbollah’s to make. Iran calls the shots here, and if Iran believes opening a second front against Israel is wise, it will happen. How do we avoid that? Deterrence. The Israeli deterrent is broken, but the American and European one is not. (I’m just being polite; there isn’t really a European deterrent.) The United States has two carrier battle groups in the region, and the Israelis believe that should Hezbollah begin in earnest to use its massive stockpile of weapons, the United States will weigh in with stand-off weaponry. Iran does not want that.
Then there are Iran’s other proxies: the Houthis in Yemen have been assiduous in targeting Israel. Luckily, the U.S. has been equally assiduous in neutralizing those efforts. Less lucky, there have been multiple attacks on U.S. sites inside Iraq, perpetrated by Iran’s Iraqi proxies, and in Syria, and U.S. personnel have been injured. Iran is overplaying its hand here, and risks bringing the United States into the conflict in a more serious way. Tehran’s tyrants do not want that.
Because of these fears, the Biden administration and others have been leaning on Israel to wait on its ground campaign in Gaza. And Israel’s unity government has caved, agreeing it will postpone the ground incursion until the U.S. has sufficient air defenses in place to protect our troops.
Here’s the problem: Sure, it’s a good idea to have the best defenses in place. But the best way to protect our troops is for them not to be attacked. And the best way to end those attacks is to make clear to Iran what the consequences will be. Doubtless, there have been messages passed to the Iranians telling them to watch out, stay out, all that jazz. But Iran has decided it does not believe that Joe Biden has the stomach to actually retaliate for attacks on U.S. forces. They must be made to believe it.
The right call is for the United States to explain the direct consequences to Iran’s military leaders should these attacks continue. (Yes, that should have happened when Iran’s minions murdered 30 Americans, but there’s only so much one can hope from the team that has propitiated Iran for two and a half years.) The United States eliminated the leader of Iran’s IRGC Quds Force. His successor can go too. Indeed, every attack on a U.S. target should be met with a clear and exact response. The time for rhetoric has passed.
This war will widen if Iran believes there are prospects for permanently damaging Israel, ending its deterrence for good, and perhaps setting the stage for another, final war. Israel is unlikely to be able to persuade Iran that will not happen after October 7. It is up to the United States. If Joe Biden doesn’t want a wider war, he must frighten Iran into avoiding a wider war. It’s just that simple.