#WTH The shadow presidency
There are two foreign policies being run out of the White House
Donald Trump has a serious problem he does not recognize. We are regularly told that the President values loyalty above all else; and by all else, it is implied, he values those who are true to his person, not to the nation, or principles, or the constitution. There should be little doubt that Mr. Trump despises his tormentors — James Comey, Letitia James, and Jack Smith inter alia. But these are political enemies, people from the other side of the aisle who, some in the guise of patriotic Americans, have sought to use the law to persecute him. But there is disloyalty far closer to the President which he does not recognize.
We understand reliably that JD Vance was not Trump’s first pick for VP. Nor his second. But thanks to the good offices of both Donald Trump Jr and Tucker Carlson, the President was persuaded that JD was a better pick. I and others have written about Vance’s political, er, flexibility. Still, that’s not a sin; people grow in office all the time. What is a sin is seeking to run a parallel national security apparatus under POTUS’s nose.
Being Vice President stinks; it’s “not worth a warm bucket of spit.” And in a normal White House, that’s 100 percent true. The president matters, and the veep is a kibitzer, always seeking a role, and mostly being saddled with losers like illegal immigration. Sorry Kamala. But this is not a normal White House. There is no process, there are no middle managers, and if you can get past the President’s gatekeepers and in his ear, you have a good chance of getting what you want.
So, Vance has slowly and carefully built his team, taking care to undermine Trump only cautiously, always with plausible deniability. Why undermine Trump? Because in his second term, DJT has turned into a diplomatic whirligig, eager to fix global problems, gung ho about committing the United States to righting the ship in Venezuela, managing the peace in Gaza, and ending the war on Ukraine, somehow. And while Trump himself is deeply frustrated with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, he has recognized that Putin will only come to the table if he is losing to Ukraine, and has armed Kyiv accordingly. Vance does not agree.
Inside the White House and at the Pentagon, Vance has cultivated a like-minded group of isolationists — “restrainers” — who believe that the President has betrayed his own America First, MAGA base and prioritized global engagement over domestic policy. Whether their assessment is correct or not — and polls suggest it is not — Team Vance has insinuated itself into, among other things, the Russia - Ukraine negotiations via quiescent Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and his Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, a mate of Vance’s from Yale. Together with Hegseth Undersecretary Bridge Colby, the group is pursuing a Moscow-oriented policy that has neither been endorsed nor, frankly, seen by the President.
The Vance group within the White House has slowly been gaining ground, edging out unsympathetic political appointees and backbriefing sympathetic podcasters like Tucker Carlson. Quietly despairing at Trump’s strike on Iran, troubled by Trump’s adventurism in Venezuela, they are determined that they will in future manipulate the President towards their position. They have constructed alternate intelligence realities, persuading the President and others that, for example, Russia is winning in Ukraine, and that congressmen are secretly pursuing a “neocon” agenda.
Want an example?
What could possibly motivate the Vice President to turn on his own party, clinging by a thread to majority in Congress? Why try to pit the base against the elected representatives of the people? Then again, why defend Tucker Carlson?
Of course, we know the answer to this question. The Vice President is not loyal — not to his boss, not to his party, not to any particular set of principles, and not even to his family — maligned by Tucker’s close pal Nick Fuentes. He wishes to be president.
Fair enough. It’s a big job, and heaven knows, it’s been held by plenty of grifters and shape shifters. But there’s one problem: Vance underestimates his President and the American people. They are not selfish, nor are they confused about the greatness of their own nation. Vance and his cohort may well be persuaded that these are America’s twilight years, and that our decline must be managed. But there are few signs that his leader or his party agrees.
One of the things that marks this President is the tuning fork vibration he uses to zero in on his pitch. This is not Biden stumbling over words on teleprompter to read a speech someone else wrote about a decision someone else made. Trump likes waffles, Waffle House, and waffles a bit to find his way.
Trump himself tends to vascillate in tweets, off the cuff comments, and wanderings in his speeches. He is testing out ideas and tone before he makes the call.
I think Vance is a shrewd player, maybe a bit too shrewd. He tends to work the edges to preserve some independence. A Veep is often sunk by the Presidential policy choices of the boss, … isn’t that right Kamala? Vance is marking a territory that he can retreat to if needed when he runs for the big job. So, Vance is naughty — but few will remember if Trump goes another direction. And if Trump is wrong, … then Vance looks prescient. (Recall President Obama liked to refer to his anti-Iraq war position in a speech before the Illinois legislature — kind of a meaningless, forgettable moment until he was running for President. Then it was gold.)
Right now this administration appears to be open to discussing a Russian plan for peace where Russia comes away with the Donbas and some other pieces of their prey, including the parts it does not control. I have heard all kinds of stories, objections, and conclusions, … but the talks continue. When doing real estate (or any business where the practice is often cut-throat), finding something to talk about with your competitors is important and with time can yield results. Trump loves to negotiate.
Vance vibrates, Steve Miller vibrates, Marco Rubio vibrates, John Ratliff vibrates, Gen. Dan Caine vibrates (well, not that much), and Scott Bessent vibrates. Susie Wiles hums along on key. And Trump, who has an amazing skill of recognizing pitch perfect tone, listens.
The vibrations will at some point harmonize when the maestro says so. Maybe let’s not over analyze Taiwan, Ukraine, tariffs, NATO, … differences are not with meaning if ideas are being tossed out. What is clear is what we are reading is not always what is happening or intended. Sometimes it is simply practice, or a dress rehearsal, …, and then sometimes it is a live performance. I am waiting to see the live performance.
Ms. Pletka, I wonder what is more dangerous: a foreign policy adrift or one running amok? Oh the refuge of my history books. But not so fast, that's changing too! Take care.