#WTH The Trump Tsunami
Plus Q&A with Matt Continetti
Well, damn.
The pollster Patrick Ruffini laid out some of the most stunning pieces of the election based on AP VoteCast / Fox News Voter Analysis.
White suburban women 51-47 Trump
Men Trump 54-44
Women Harris 53-45
52-46 among 18-29 year olds
52-46 Trump among 18-44 year old men
55-43 Trump among whites
Harris with Black voters 56-41
Harris with Latinos 55-41
Latino men 51-46 Harris
Latino women 60-38 Harris
Trump won parents 50-47
He won moms 49-48
He won dads 52-46
And check out the rightward swings:
New York: D+23 -> D+12
New Jersey: D+16 -> D+4
Massachussetts: D+33 -> D+26
Rhode Island: D+23 -> D+13
Connecticut: D+20 -> D+8
Vermont: D+36 -> D+32
Maryland: D+33 -> D+22
Delaware: D+19 -> D+14
The Democrats face a choice today and for the next two years. They can continue on their unsuccessful anti-democratic crusade against the Trump coalition, or they can do some soul-searching and return to their roots. There’s tons to absorb, and lots more to consider. But there can be no disputing the strength and breadth of Trump’s victory. Was it Harris? Was it Walz? Was it Kamala? Biden? The answer, of course, is yes. Yes, it was all those things and so much more.
Marc and I recorded a WTH pod, up later today, and this morning I hosted the awesome Matt Continetti for a conversation for our paid subscribers about the election. Of course, we are think tank nerds, not tech wizards, so we cut off about two minutes. Classic. But you’ll get the gist.
Stay tuned, lots more to come in the days ahead. And yes, to DJT, congratulations. I love the fact that his voters were all Americans first, not identity-driven “victims” of 1619 America.
My favorite "exit poll" stat comes from CNN, where they asked voters whose top concern was "protecting democracy" who they voted for. Trump, 50-48. Gotta love it.
I am happy for the Republicans and I hope they govern better than I believe they will.
Something I dislike strongly today is that campaigns winning narrow victories still believe they have sweeping mandates. See Joe Biden thinking he's LBJ+FDR and providing the Elizabeth Warren administration even though he won by about 250,000 votes in the blue wall. That is the same margin Donald Trump will win with.
Republicans claiming this as a sweeping mandate while winning the popular vote by less than Hilary Clinton taxes the credulity of the credulous. But they have all the power, and I fear it will be used against the good. That his worst impulses will mar our Department of Justice, our support for Ukraine and Israel will evaporate, and our public health agencies will go crazy under tzar Kennedy. I fear he will demonstrate his brand of economic illiteracy and implement across the board tariffs. I saw today that one of Trump's economic advisers said Tariffs were not inflationary, just a one time price adjustment, or something like that. 20% total inflationary effects over 4 years slaughtered Joe Biden's approval rating and made a Democratic victory in 2024 impossible. If that were to happen all at once, it would be cataclysm for the macro economy, working families, and Donald Trump's approval ratings. As a Democrat that would be an electoral blessing. But as an American I hope our fellow citizens will not have to suffer that remarkably poor policy proposal.
I was happy to see Ritchie Torres call out the far left. I agree. We should dispatch with them at breakneck pace. They provide us as much electoral help as Marjorie Taylor Greene does the Republicans. The Democrats should get back to Clintonian centrism and economic moderation. I will certainly not be voting for any radicals in any primaries. We have a bench full of superstars and we should use them. Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg (less so), Wes Moore, Andy Bashear. All of them could have bright futures as popular centrists.
One small personal note. I'm gay. And for a long, long, long time the Republicans used us as punching bags. Crazy freak-shows trying to impose our weird lifestyles on everyone else. This cultural ridicule has led to thousand of suicides and oceans of tears by bullied children.I am so sad for my transgender brothers and sisters going through the same thing now. I'm not saying people don't have valid points on taxpayer funding or sports games, but it's more than that. They are used as scary caricatures. While most trans people just want to live they're lives and be left alone like the rest of us. To not be demonized. New congresswoman McBride will likely be mistreated by some of her colleagues on the right side of the isle. And that saddens me.
The Republicans have so much opportunity to do something here. But I have a feeling that, as Donald Trump almost always does, he'll blow it.