WTH: What happens when Russia loses?

Yep, Russia is losing in Ukraine. Amb. Kurt Volker joins us to talk what it means

Russian forces continue to inflict incredible pain on Ukrainian cities, targeting civilians, hospitals, shelters… In spite of that pain, however, Ukraine stands strong. There is only one, inescapable conclusion here: Russia is losing. Amb. Kurt Volker joined the pod to talk the implications of failure for Vladimir Putin.

In some ways, it’s strange. During the Ukraine conflict, the West has focused inordinate attention on… itself. What will NATO do? Where won’t the United States fight? What won’t we give to Ukraine? No one has uttered the words that are increasingly obvious: Putin is losing this war. As Volker explains during the podcast, if Russia can’t hold the country of Ukraine; “by definition, Ukraine wins.” None of that means the bloodletting won’t continue, but it does mean the dissolution of democratic Ukraine is no longer a possibility.

In light of these facts, the United States and its allies should be asking how to accelerate Russian losses and erode Putin’s standing at home. Is that happening? Not visibly, and if the kerfuffle over Biden’s call for Putin’s ouster is any indication, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. But there’s a lot both the U.S. and Europe can do, including arming the Ukrainians more quickly, coordinating relief, inundating the Russian people with the truth about Putin’s war and more.

And one more thing to keep in mind — Volker emailed after the podcast to make a vital point we didn’t cover: Russia’s aims in Ukraine have changed. Where he once claimed he was seeking to “save” ethnic Russians living in Ukraine from its “Nazi” rulers, he has now turned to bombing the crap out of those selfsame ethnic Russians in Mariupol and Eastern Ukraine, so, as Volker explains, “there are no free Russians left.  He cannot tolerate the idea that there would exist Russian-speakers in the world, in a neighboring state, who enjoy freedoms and opportunities that Russians in his gulag-state cannot enjoy.”

Quite a switch. Let us know your thoughts, and do please share the WTH substack!

HIGHLIGHTS

Volker: Russia cannot win. There is no way that Putin can take the territory of Ukraine and hold it. They haven't been able to get to the major cities. They're able to lob long bombs and they are able to destroy apartment complexes and target civilians, but they can can't take and hold the country. In the end, by definition, then Ukraine wins. Ukraine survives.

Volker: Now, it's going to be bloody. It's going to be a catastrophe for civilians. The Russians have the ability to keep killing people for a long time, but they can't destroy Ukraine. That's a fundamental thing here…. Because if we come to this conclusion that Ukraine is going to win, then we should not be holding back on any support for them whatsoever. Russia is going to lose this war, they're going to have a terrible time. And we should be helping Ukrainians early and often, so that we minimize the casualties and increase their chances of greater success and less destruction.

Volker: We should not be satisfied with Russia regrouping in the Eastern part of Ukraine and then just sitting there; they need to get out of Ukraine. And I think the Ukrainians will be the first ones to say it, it's not for us to tell them what to think, but they will say, "After you've bombed our cities, killed tens of thousands of people, you've raped our women, you have destroyed our economy," the prime minister today estimated a trillion dollars in damage; they're not going to accept Russia remaining in Ukraine, at least not in the east.

Volker: The only thing I can imagine is an agreement to disagree over Crimea. Now Ukraine could conceivably tell Russia, "We're not going to take Crimea back by force now." But other than that, I think they're going to insist on Russian forces leaving the country. And I think when that happens, then you can say, "Okay, now there's a settlement."

Volker: I have yet to hear anybody in the US or anywhere in Europe use those words, "Defeat Russia." No one's talking about defeating Russia, no one's talking about victory. They talk about supporting and supplying the Ukrainians. And what we need to be considering is that this war goes on for some time. It has tilted in Ukraine's favor and can continue to tilt that way. And we will have to have a long-term plan for a sustained support and supply of Ukraine, both foodstuffs, humanitarian goods, medical supplies, as well as arms. And I don't see that happening yet. It's a lot of ad hoc.

Volker: We just had a NATO summit on Thursday last week, and it was striking how NATO talked about defending itself, and didn't talk about doing anything for Ukraine.… For example, why doesn't NATO establish a clearing house for receiving Ukrainian requests for support, farming it out to all allies, make sure that requests are matched with donations or procurement, and then assuring its delivery to Ukraine? This is a perfectly good NATO function and doesn't cross this red line that the administration has set of putting US or NATO troops on the ground.

Volker: We have, as you said, MiG-29 aircraft, we have A10s, we have S-300 air defense systems, we have anti-ship systems, all of which we should be providing to the Ukrainians as expeditiously as possible. So there's a lot more that we could be doing that we have not yet done. And we have not begun to consider that the end of the war may look very different than what people thought it was going to be. The end of the war will be an exhausted Russia, maybe with Vladimir Putin, maybe without, and a Ukraine that is still an independent sovereign state, and a perspective that they have earned a place in the EU and NATO.

Volker: I think that there is this boogeyman out there, "If we do X, it'll create World War III." And I think we have to get over that and say, "No, it won't create World War III, we can escalate, the Russians don't want us to join this fight, so they're going to do everything possible to avoid World War III as well. Nobody wants to see nuclear exchange."

Volker: [W]e should put that out there in terms of sanctions …. as long as [Putin is] in power, he led Russia into this war, he is personally responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people and the creation of 10 million displaced persons, and that number's going to grow, a trillion dollars of destruction in Ukraine, he's personally responsible for this, and we will not deal with Russia as long as he's in power. That needs to be clear. We need to pursue the war crimes, and remember war crimes are not just a collective thing that you hold Russia accountable. Every individual in the chain of command who is responsible for authorizing and overseeing a crime against humanity, or war crimes in the context of the conflict, they need to be held personally accountable.

Volker: We need to be clear that Ukraine is not only going to survive, but we're going to help rebuild Ukraine. It's going to be a successful, independent European state. It will have its sovereignty. We hope it has all of its territory. It is something that is a US interest, a European interest, a NATO interest. We cannot allow Russia to extinguish a sovereign European state, and at the end of this, there will be a successful of Ukraine. I think those are things that we need to be saying out loud and forcefully to set the expectations. Set the expectations in Russia, set the expectations in Ukraine, and even among our European friends and allies of the EU and NATO.

Volker: What happened is the effort to put up buffers and to correct misstatements of the president has become reflexive. So as soon as he went off script and said an additional sentence that might have been controversial, [White House staff] just leapt in and said, "Oh, no, no, no. He didn't mean that." Instead of thinking, saying, "Actually, maybe he did mean that. And actually, maybe that's a good thing to say." But it's just a reflexive response now because it's part of the system of course correction, because they anticipate misstatements or mistakes.

Volker: I'm here in Prague and was talking with people about this kerfuffle as well. And one thing that we can't underestimate is the appearance it creates of a president who's not in charge. When he's out speaking in Warsaw, the American president speaking abroad and his own staff comes out, "Oh, he didn't mean that. This is what he means." It creates a perception of weakness and not being in charge, which is very damaging.

Volker: Our problem is not with Russia or the Russian people. In fact, we understand the mess that they are living through domestically, and it's because of Vladimir Putin and the way he has created this authoritarian regime, which just extracts from the country. So we have to be clear that our problem is Putin, not people. [B]ecause of Putinism … why not use the old word of containment? We have to contain Russia's ability to exercise power and threaten people, militarily, or otherwise around the world. We're going to have to do that as long as he's in power, as long as the Russian regime is acting the way that it is acting. They need change and they need a conceptual or philosophical reconciliation with their own deeds, much as Germany did after World War II. And I think that's possible at the end of this war, because when the Russian people learn what Putin actually did, I think they're going to be horrified.

Volker: [A]t the end of this, I would like to be able to go to Donetsk and sit in a coffee shop and talk with people who suffered under the crazy occupation for eight years and say that I'm glad to see that they're part of Ukraine again, and now this place can rebuild. That's what I would like to see. And one final thought on that, too, because we're talking about Ukraine. This is the opportunity at the end of this war to eliminate the gray zones in Europe. No countries should be living in fear of a future Russian invasion again. So Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, we'll see where Belarus ends up, if it gains its independence again. We need to be looking out for those countries.

Volker: Frankly, if you're thinking that you may have to fight a war someday, who wouldn't want Ukraine on your side? We should be looking at this not as, "Oh, my god, Ukraine is not ready." We should be saying, "Okay, this is a huge opportunity now as Ukraine rebuilds, to coin a phrase, build back better, put in place the right kinds of reforms, clean up the judiciary, get a economy structured around the EU legal structures for the economy," and they are a resource rich country, energy, oil, gas, renewables, minerals, et cetera. The EU should be looking and salivating at the idea that Ukraine could become a member.

Find the full transcript here.

AND…Before we hit the shownotes, you can now read What the Hell is Going On? in the new Substack app for iPhone. Substack insists it’s an upgrade. Let us know.

SHOWNOTES

“NATO Must Act for Ukraine,” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 3/21/22)

“Desperate and Dangerous: Managing Putin,” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 3/15/22)

“Six Ways to Help Ukraine Survive Right Now,” by Kurt Volker and Philip Breedlove (Center for European Policy Analysis, 3/3/22)

“Buckle Up: This is Just the First Step,” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 2/22/22)

“The Speech In Which Putin Told Us Who He Was,” by Daniel Fried and Kurt Volker (Politico, Politico Magazine, 2/18/22)

“Why Ukraine Will Win (and Why the West Should Help Now),” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 1/31/22)

“The (Russian) Empire Strikes Back,” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 1/10/22)

“Stopping the Countdown to Russian Invasion,” by Kurt Volker (Center for European Policy Analysis, 12/22/21)

“Kurt Volker calls out White House, officials walking back Biden remarks on Putin 'damaging',” (Fox Business, 3/28/22)

“Fmr. Ambassador to NATO: 'Let Putin guess' on US, NATO red line for Russia,” (MSNBC, Meet the Press Daily, 3/25/22)

“Was Biden's NATO news conference a missed opportunity?” (Fox News, ‘The Story’, 3/24/22)

“Kurt Volker, Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Discusses Biden's Belief Russia Will be Removed from G-20 & Warning Russia of Response to Potential Chemical Weapons Attacks,” (CNN, CNN Newsroom, 3/24/22)

“'Your World' on Ukraine war, China's Russian dilemma,” (Fox News, ‘Your World,’ 3/18/22)

“What a no-fly zone over Ukraine would mean for the U.S. and NATO,” (PBS News Hour, 3/7/22)

“Transcript: Ambassador Kurt Volker on ‘Face the Nation,’ March 6, 2022,” (CBS News, 3/6/22)

“Ukraine crisis: Russian President Vladimir Putin cornered over invasion 'miscalculation' - how will he react?” (Sky News, 3/6/22)

“NATO has taken ‘no action’ in deterring attack from Putin: Kurt Volker,” (Fox Business, 2/21/22)

“Canadians must confront ‘very high’ cost of conflict with Russia: UN ambassador,” (Global News, 3/27/22)

“NATO Summit: Growing Calls for Tougher Military Response to Russia,” (Voice of America, 3/23/22)

“Putin’s Russia looks increasingly desperate as Ukraine war nears stalemate, analysts say,” (CNBC, 3/21/22)

“US wary of deal to send fighter jets to Ukraine, despite Kyiv government pleas,” (USA Today, updated 3/9/22, published 3/8/22)

“GW Experts Offer Analysis and Observations on Russia/Ukraine Crisis,” (GW Today, 3/2/22)

“Former NATO Ambassador on Russia invading Ukraine,” (Arizona PBS, 2/24/22)

“POLITICO Playbook: Harris steps in the middle of a NATO standoff,” (Politico, 3/9/22)

“White House Downplays Chances of Limited No-Fly Zone in Ukraine

“Ukraine hopes for cease-fire as Istanbul hosts new talks,” (The Washington Post, 3/28/22)

“No clear pathway to peace in Ukraine,” (Axios, 3/28/22)

“U.S. training Ukrainian troops in Poland, Biden seems to reveal,” (Politico, 3/28/22)

“Poll: Americans want tougher sanctions on Russia over Ukraine invasion,” (Axios, 3/28/22)

“Ukraine pleads for help, says Russia wants to split nation,” (AP News, 3/27/22)

“Biden says remark on Putin’s power was about ‘moral outrage’,” (AP News, 3/27/22)

“Ukraine can defeat Russia — but the West must help,” by Frederick W. Kagan (The Hill, 3/27/22)

“Ukraine Can Win With Enough Help,” by The Editorial Board (3/23/22)