#WTH What's next for Iran?

Not much.

It seemed obvious when the news arrived: A helicopter (by most accounts, a 1979 US-made Bell) carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, among others, was lost in the fog. Its transponder was clearly off, likely a nod to paranoia about Israeli tracking. The crash site was only found in the morning light after half a day of searching; or maybe it was found earlier. Who knows? The regime controls the news out of Iran. Perhaps they needed time to reckon out what next. So, yes, it was obvious, and Raisi and Abdollahian and the other passengers are dead. What does that mean for the Islamic Republic of Iran? Sadly, precious little.

First, a word about Raisi. This news piece summarizes his career highlights:

In 1988 Raisi was a member of the 4-man prosecution committee dubbed the "death committee" which sentenced thousands of Iranian opponents of the regime to death following the Iran-Iraq war, earning him the title "the Butcher of Tehran." He served as Tehran's prosecutor-general from 1989 to 1994, deputy chief of the Judicial Authority for a decade from 2004, and then national prosecutor-general in 2014.

Close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi was elected president in 2021. For a while, he was rumored to be next in line to succeed Khamenei, who is 85. His odds had recently fallen as Khamenei’s son Mojtaba’s star ascended. He was not a nice man. So who takes over? Technically, the law is clear, and Raisi’s deputy Mohammad Mokhber will take over until elections take place, within 50 days. And what does it all mean? Wellllll….

It would be nice to think that the death of Raisi opens the possibility of seismic changes inside Iran. He was, after all, the president, and a crony of the Supreme Leader. Maybe even the next SL. But the harsh reality of 2024 Iran is that it is the Supreme Leader, not his would-be successor, who makes the decisions. Ideologically, Raisi and Khamenei are of the same caste, the ultra-hard line religious fanatics who prioritize their grip on power over all. Raisi will be replaced by someone just like him, and next week will look much like the last.

Is this cast in stone? Absolutely not. The regime in Iran is deeply unpopular, the economy is a shambles, young people and the middle class are ready for major changes, and in theory, it is just this kind of a shock to the system that could bring the people into the streets to finally topple the government. But, in addition to nurturing a culture of terror and death across the Middle East over the last four and a half decades, the leaders of the Islamic Republic have put into place a police state with significant power. It will not take just one spark to oust these people.

If the United States and Europe had a policy in place vis a vis Iran — its nuclear program, the terrorism, the missiles, the human rights, anything — perhaps this would have been the moment for a potent outside power to step in via proxies and diplomatic warfare to promote a successor, democratic leadership to Iran. Alas, that is not the case. Neither the United States nor the European Union have any serious plans about the future of Iran. All that exists are some tactical sanctions and the usual hot air.

My friends in Tehran insist that the system in Tehran is unsustainable for the long term, that things are so precarious inside Iran that the regime could go at any moment. Would it were so. However, more than nuclear weapons, or the cause of “Palestine,” or support for terrorism, the regime’s main preoccupation is itself. Regime protection is priority #1.

More than anything, except perhaps the fact that flying a helo in fog in Iran is a bad call, what the Raisi crash lays bare is the bankruptcy of American foreign policy. Iran is not simply an enemy; it is the United States’ main enemy in the Middle East, a malevolent force that is behind thousands of American deaths, a dangerous nuclear arms race, and most of the region’s wars over the last half century. Half a million Syrians are dead because of this regime; Lebanon is terrorized by Hezbollah; Yemen is terrorized by the Houthis; Palestinians are terrorized by Hamas; and Iraq is terrorized by Iranian proxy armies. October 7 would not have happened but for this regime. And yet, we can be certain that much as the White House panicked as a Russian mercenary plotted to kill Vladimir Putin — good news? bad news? waaaah! — the sages at the National Security Council are now debating whether to send flowers to Tehran.

Sometimes fate provides opportunities to disable one’s enemies. The real tragedy here is that there is no one in power in Washington to take advantage. And so, nothing will happen, and the Islamic Republic will continue on, until finally, likely without our help, the Iranian people will take back their country, later rather than sooner.