On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the mind-bogglingly rich capo of Hamas, was killed in Tehran. The day after, Iran vowed revenge, airlines began canceling flights to the Middle East, and Biden administration officials launched into crisis mode, whooshing the usual suspects (Brett McGurk, Amos Hochstein, Bill Burns, and sometimes, if he’s allowed out, Tony Blinken) to the region. Israel moved into a defensive crouch, ordering citizens to shelters, and preparing for a major attack by Iran and its terror proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and elsewhere.
Two weeks later… crickets.
There has been enthusiastic theorizing online about what’s going on, but there are some facts as well. In the wake of a strike on senior IRGC officials in Damascus on April 1, Iran vowed revenge (Iran likes to vow revenge) and launched an all out assault from its own territory on Israel. Iran likes to use proxies almost as much as it likes to vow revenge, and so the decision to initiate a frontal attack on Israel was notable.
Unfortunately, not much else was notable for Iran — at least not in a good way. More than 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles were sent towards Israel. 99 percent were taken out before they arrived. One injured a young Bedouin girl. Awkward.
European and American leaders have been leaning on the Iranians not to hit Israel. Are their pleas effective? Unlikely, but the Iranians are probably being offered something to dial back the threat. Those are the facts.
Given past failures and the cost of hitting Israel, Iranian leaders are taking their time. Are they doing so because they enjoy the suspense, as some suggest? Sheesh, no. If they could hurt Israel fast, they would have done it. Or are they thinking, an eye for an eye? This is not a stupid idea.
Iran is not a deeply serious military power. Yes, it has lots of nasty stuff and lots of nasty proxies, but its skill set lies in terrorism, untraceable strikes, and florid rhetoric. Sure, Iran has bodies to throw at any conflict, much like Russia, but it does not have massive strategic advantage or superior military skills. It took years for regular Iranian forces and the IRGC, backed by Hezbollah, backed by Russians, backed by Syrians, to push back the Syrian people and ISIS/al Qaeda. Arguably, they have not been defeated.
So if the Iranians were shrewd — and I think they sometimes are — they would look to their sweet spot: Terrorism. Ideally, they could kill a senior Israeli. That would not be easy. A more risky call might be to kill a particularly disliked American. Several are in their sights. Involving the United States would be a foolish choice; then again, Tehran has the Biden administration pretty solidly pegged. So… perhaps not as high risk as it seems. Option three would be to hit an Israeli or Jewish target overseas. Iran has lots of experience in this space, though recent successes have been few.
No matter what, do not count this delay as a reconsideration of the need for revenge by Iran. It was not just that the IRGC was humiliated at its own guest house; it was that the government of Iran was made to look the fool in front of its own people. I would argue that the Iranian people have long been aware of the regime’s foibles, but one understands why they might think they cannot take this lying down.
Another point: For some reason, the establishment media and prominent columnists — “yesterday’s conventional wisdom today!” — seem to believe that cease-fire talks are somewhat critical to both Iran and Hamas’s calculus about when to launch Iran’s Revenge Tour — part 68. It’s not clear to me why they think that or why Iran or Hamas cares to play a part in this endless diplomatic minuet.
Israel's pressure on the evil doers may be paying off. If they don't let up they may be able to get some hostages back with only a lull in their goal of defeating Hamas. Hopefully effort will be redirected to Iran--making them pay the price for their terror. Don't forget that Iran has American blood on their hands and we DO have a dog in this fight. To prolong this when we can contribute to the end is unconscionable.
I have no faith in any foreign policy approach from Ka'mas' Harris https://shorturl.at/Dtvtn