Our podcast last week was about Georgia. No, not the Georgia on my mind 🎵 Georgia. But the former Soviet captive nation Georgia. Now, you may — probably will — ask yourself why you should care about a Georgia far away that is never on your mind. Fair enough; let me tell you.
We in the United States of America have a good idea of who our enemies are. Primarily they are China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. At the substate level, there is al Qaeda, ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis et al. And there are a couple of South American nasties. Ranging the full power of the USA against almost all of them, barring China, we can afford to boast of our superior capabilities. Then again, why would we want to go to war with any one of them? War costs lives and money and, ultimately, is a sign of the failure of diplomacy.
So let’s talk a little about the power of diplomacy. In the case of serious challenges to our national interests and the world order, diplomacy works when it is backed by the threat of sanction or the use of force. We’re not talking about the trade-in beef lips (yes, that’s a real thing), nor even about more thorny questions of diplomacy like what to do with Julian Assange (he should have rotted in prison forever, but that’s another substack). We’re talking about diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program (a failure). We’re talking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, when Putin occupied and then annexed Crimea. Or the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, when Putin falsely claimed attacks against ethnic Russians to take over South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Now again, you’re going to say that you care much more about the failure of diplomacy with Iran than you do about Abkhazia. But part of the job diplomats are intended to do is imagine the consequences of what’s happening in the world, and work to mitigate a spiral into conflict. That’s exactly what isn’t happening in Georgia, because Georgia is part of a larger problem. In the pod with our guest, David Kramer, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute, we dive into some of the details of Russia’s steady and growing influence in Georgia, and the passage of a new NGO law that looks suspiciously like the Kremlin’s own law barring any outside support for organizations that support civil society, religious freedom, free press and stuff like that.
Here’s where imagination comes in: Again, this isn’t about the vicissitudes of Georgian political life, this is about Vladimir Putin and his intentions in Central and Eastern Europe. Look at the map of the former Soviet Union:
You see Ukraine, and you know what’s happening there. Putin effectively controls Belarus already. Now look at Georgia. Putin is slowly, but steadily, working to reconstitute a Russian Empire. And that will indeed be a threat to our NATO allies and to us.
We cannot say that the United States did nothing in response to the Georgian government’s slide towards Moscow. The State Department imposed dozens of travel sanctions on various Georgian political officials. Is that enough? Will that slow Georgia’s drift or Russia’s efforts? Not bloody likely. Because, as with Iran, as with Hamas, as with Russia and Ukraine, our diplomacy is not backed by any threat of the use of force, or by a will to win. So what should the Biden administration be doing?
It’s just not that complicated. We need Russia to lose in Ukraine. Not to “not win.” To lose. And Biden’s continued slow rolling of support necessary for an outright Ukrainian victory, continued limitation on the use of those weapons that Washington has supplied, and constant fretting about escalation have proven to Moscow that as long as they hang on, Biden will force Kyiv to sue for peace, including massive territorial losses and the prospect of eventual total absorption into Russia.
Diplomacy isn’t working well, much as it did not end Iran’s nuclear program, or bring Hamas to the table. It’s time to see Putin’s aims for what they are, and stop them in their tracks — not by fighting ourselves, but by helping good people defend themselves. Sigh.
HIGHLIGHTS
Why should Americans care about Georgians protesting their government?
DK: Georgia is a small country, a little over 3 million people. It's in a region called the South Caucasus, it's south of Russia. That's important because in 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and occupies still to this day 20% of Georgian territory, but it really emerged into prominence back in 2003, Georgia led what became known as the color revolutions throughout the region. There was the Rose Revolution in 2003 that brought an end to a corrupt government there. It was a popular movement. It was pro-democracy. It was anti-corruption. And Mikheil Saakashvili who actually studied in the United States at Columbia, well-known to people in the Bush administration during this time emerged as the new president. And so Georgia really stood out from 2003 on for being this kind of island of democracy in a sea of authoritarianism.
And it also is an incredibly pro-American country. It's a pro-European country. It's a pro-democracy country, strongly against corruption, wants to join the European Union, wants to join NATO.
How is Russian involvement Georgia different from Russian meddling in Ukraine?
DK: What we're seeing, however, is not a war reemerging in Georgia. Remember that war in 2008 when Russia invaded was only for five days, but it led to Russia's continued occupation of 20% of Georgian territory. What we're seeing now is a move by the party in power, which is called Georgian Dream toward Moscow away from the West, toward trying to consolidate power, go after civil society organizations, the opposition, we're seeing basically the Kremlin playbook playing out in Georgia.
In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia appeared as a success story in everything from security service to tax reform. How did we get from there to here?
DK: Let me add to your list, Dany, and that includes Georgia's contributions to efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. At one point per capita, Georgia was the second-largest contributor. A number of several dozen Georgian troops, in fact, paid the ultimate price and trying to defend the cause of freedom. So, Georgians didn't just talk the talk, they walked the walk. They showed that they wanted to be contributors to Euro-Atlantic security, to stability in the region, to being a source of inspiration for others in the region. If Georgia can move from a corrupt authoritarian system to a more democratic corruption-free system, then others could too. And so Georgia really stood out because of its contributions, because it was so pro-American, about 80% of Georgians to this date, despite the efforts of the current government support joining European Union and NATO. And so it is an incredibly pro-Western, pro-American country.
And right now the problem is that Georgian Dream, this party in power, it's in government controlled by billionaire, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is his name, is moving toward Moscow and he and his prime minister and the government basically have decided we don't want to go to the West, we want to make our bed in Moscow. And part of that is because of the corrupt activities of Georgian Dream.
Why is Bidzina Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream moving away from the West and towards Russia?
DK: He doesn't appreciate the transparency that would come for joining the European Union that would come with being part of NATO. And so Ivanishvili is the one pulling the strings. This billionaire, this one guy is pulling the strings in Georgia, but he has a lot of accomplices. He has the Georgian government, he has the Georgian parliament, this Georgian Dream that's the party in power is playing along with whatever Ivanishvili wants to do. And so we're seeing the impact that one individual can have in a country. And it's why I think it's so important that the United States, our European allies stand with the Georgian people in contrast to what Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream-controlled government is doing.
In 2008 President Bush pushed for both Georgia and Ukraine to start the process of joining NATO through a membership action plan. When that was shot down did we miss an opportunity to safeguard their future?
DK: Both countries were interested in joining the Euro-Atlantic Alliance.
And it was opposition in particular from Germany under Chancellor Merkel as well as France, but mostly Germany. And then the compromise that was worked out was exactly what you said, which is Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO. That was explicitly stated in NATO communique, the statement that was issued after the summit, but it didn't say how, didn't say when. And the Russians were so fixated on what you referenced, a membership action plan. When NATO didn't support that, Russia thought we were backing off of Ukraine and Georgia. And so they thought it was open season as a result of that.
How does Georgia’s foreign agent law resemble Russian efforts to stifle opposition?
DK: It is a page from the Putin playbook. Putin got an NGO law foreign agent law passed in 2012, and in the years since has been ramping up its effect in terms of going after NGOs to the point where most of them are unable to operate inside Russia and what's happening in Georgia, and Marc, you were just getting at this, there isn't a lot of support inside the country for civil society, for these non-governmental organizations. Ivanishvili the billionaire is the richest guy in the country. He's not exactly providing support to the NGOs that would act as checks and balances on government abuse of authority. And so what this is generating lots of criticism from the European Union, from the European Council, from the Venice Commission, which is a body that studies laws on behalf of the European Council, from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, from the United States.
Basically, every Western institution and entity are criticizing this law, urging the Parliament not to pass it. Who's supporting it? Russia.
Who are the Georgian cops beating up protesters?
DK: These are robocops, they're called. These are heavily clad protected security forces beholden to Ivanishvili, the oligarch, and they are beating up people, these protests, by the way, that might even be in the hundreds of thousands when you take the whole country into account. It's not just in Tbilisi that we're seeing these turnouts. And so they're peaceful, and yet the authorities are acting like thugs. You see them calling up people they are targeting who are activists and leaders in the civil society community. They're calling their families. They're showing up at their door, they're beating them up, they're forcing them to sleep, not at their home because they don't feel safe, but finding refuge somewhere else. These aren't Putin-like tactics. This is thuggishness, and it seems like the Georgian people aren't going to put up with it.
And so it is a sign both of the courage and resilience of the Georgian people, which is to be admired and of pretty despicable tactics that the party in power in Georgia are assuming and taking on against these people. Something's got to give. And so the hope is that ... And this is a strong hope among Georgian civil society, that the West will help level the playing field. And the way to do that is by imposing sanctions on Georgian officials responsible for this deteriorating situation.
Did Georgian Dream steal the last election? How are they in power if they are so unpopular?
DK: Part of the problem, to get directly to your question is a very disunited opposition and tactics used against Saakashvili's former party. In 2012, there were videos put out showing abuse inside Georgian prisons. That did real damage to Saakashvili's party, the United National Movement at that time. So it isn't entirely a fair process. I mean, politics and elections get ugly, and I think that's what we've seen in Georgia. But the case here has been where the opposition has been disunited and pretty feckless. And so people kind of resigned themselves to voting for Georgian Dream. There is an election scheduled for October, a parliamentary election. There are no longer elections for the president. The Parliament then chooses the president in this new system. So a lot of this is in the lead-up to the October election where Georgian Dream doesn't want to leave anything to chance.
When did Russia start to seriously get involved in Georgian politics?
DK: The Russians had kind of gotten fed up with the Georgian government's tendency to try to play both sides, lean toward West, but also keep in good standing with Russia. And it's when the Georgian parliament invited a Russian parliamentarian to come to Tbilisi, a guy who was a strong supporter of the invasion in 2008, he sat in the Georgian speaker's chair, spoke in Russian, and caused a huge uproar. This is 2019.
The authorities responded with some pretty nasty force, but that was really a signal that Georgian Dream was leaning toward Moscow. And then it got worse after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February '22, where Georgia refused to side with Ukraine, tensions reached such a point between Ukraine and Georgia. Zelensky recalled his ambassador. Georgia has not joined sanctions, in fact, has probably been involved in some sanctions' evasion. I don't want to overstate that. And so Georgia resumed direct flights with Russia. The flow of traffic between Russia and Georgia has vastly increased. A lot of Russians have come into Georgia, some escaping the mobilization launched by Putin. But we see Georgia no longer pretending. It's no longer sitting on the fence. It has clearly gone on the side of Russia.
What would it cost the U.S. to support the Georgian people?
DK: This shouldn't cost anything. What is being proposed are US sanctions, and let me be specific on what that means, not sanctions against Georgia, the country, not sanctions against Georgia. The people targeted individual sanctions against those responsible for trying to move Georgia in a pro-Russian direction and anti-democratic direction. That means denying them the ability because it's not a right, but the ability to visit and travel in the United States to send their families to study here. Ivanishvili has a child living in the United States. The former Prime Minister has a child studying in the United States. So these guys like to trash the United States. And by the way, the anti-American rhetoric coming from these guys is pretty stunning, while at the same time enjoying the freedom and opportunity that the United States provides. So we're not talking about providing billions of dollars in assistance to Georgia right now. What we are talking about are going after in a very targeted individual way. Those responsible for taking Georgia in the wrong direction shouldn't cost much of anything, frankly, from the American taxpayer to do this.
Does the U.S. have significant influence in Georgia?
DK: The United States has significant influence in Georgia. If it chooses to exercise that influence, it's arguably the most pro-Western, pro-American, pro-democracy anti-corruption country among its population in the region. We should support it. It doesn't take much to do so, and we should stand very clearly on the side of those trying to join the West and the Democratic community.
Read the transcript here.
SHOWNOTES
Georgia's president vetoes media legislation that has provoked weeks of protests (The Associated Press, May 20, 2024)
US 'alarmed,' 50,000 protest Georgia's foreign agent bill (Reuters, May 11, 2024)
Georgian PM Slams U.S. Criticism Of Draft Law That Sparked Mass Protests (RFE/RL’s Georgian Service, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, May 03, 2024)
US to consider major military, trade package to Georgia if anti-democratic drift reversed (Politico, May 20, 2024)
Georgia’s Law on Foreign Agents (Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Tracey Newell, U.S. Mission to the OSCE, May 16, 2024)
Georgia defies EU and backs law targeting ‘foreign agents’ (Politico, May 14, 2024)
Georgian Protests Try to Reverse Russian Pivot (The Dispatch, May 6, 2024)
JAMnews on Twitter (X, April 15, 2024)
The EU is failing Georgia, just as it failed Ukraine (Dalibor Rohac, Telegraph, May 21, 2024)
‘They Say They Will Wait for Me There to Beat Me Up’: A Week of Attacks Rocks Georgia (Paul Salopek, Politico, May 19, 2024)
Why Georgia’s ruling party is pushing for the foreign agent law—and how the West should respond (Maia Nikoladze and Ana Lejava, Atlantic Council, May 17, 2024)
A Letter to Georgia (Kurt Volker, CEPA, May 17, 2024)
On Georgia’s `Russian Law,’ Amendments Are a Trap: The West Should Just Say No (Elene Kintsurashvili, Nathan Kohlenberg and Joshua Rudolph, Just Security, May 15, 2024)
How the Georgian Government, Once a US Ally, Became an Adversary, Against the Wishes of Its Protesting Citizens Georgian Government Turns Against US Despite Citizen Protests (Ambassador Ian Kelly and David J. Kramer, Just Security, May 14, 2024)
EU in Tug-of-War for Georgia and Moldova (Marija Golubeva, CEPA May 7, 2024)
As Georgia Bids To Become A Tax Haven, Critics Worry It's All To Protect Oligarch Ivanishvili (Luka Pertaia and Tony Wesolowsky, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, April 25, 2024)
How Moscow Is Threatening Radio Free Europe and the Remnants of the Independent Press (Charlotte Lawson, the Dispatch, June 1, 2021)
It does seem like history repeating. After WWI there was little appetite for armed conflict in the West. Left wing extremists took everybody's eye off the aggressive states as the real problem. And what happened was Hitler and Stalin and WW2. It's a real problem because the present "Axis powers" are able to bullshit Americans on BOTH the left and the right into thinking military power is not the answer and it's too expensive. And if the woke is for defending Ukraine or if the right is for defending Israel then one should be against that. As a Iranian women arguing with leftists on Twitter (see YouTube The Apostate Prophet) said--the Jihadists don't care about diversity, they will hang you if they get the chance. And as a famous senator said "Russia is not our friend" in spite of Putin cozying up to the church and being anti-woke. He wants the West destroyed.