#WTH How to think about Syria

It's more complicated than many want you to believe

Syria is a beautiful country, destroyed by decades of exploitation by the Assad regime, and its allies, Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Since the late 2010 uprising against the Assad regime, about half a million Syrians have been murdered. The Assad regime was so important to the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran that rather than simply sacrificing the liability that was Bashar al Assad — son of longtime Syrian tyrant Hafez al Assad — and installing a different leader and aiming for reconciliation, Tehran backed Assad to the end, with hundreds of thousands dead, millions of refugees, and heavy costs to the regime and its proxies.

Assad, who now lives under the protection of Vladimir Putin with his stolen billions, is a member of the minority Alawite sect (about 10 percent of Syria), an offshoot of Shiism that Sunni Muslims view as apostasy. The vast majority of Syrians are Sunni, though the country also has a sizable Muslim Kurdish and Druze minority, as well as a shrinking Christian minority and a handful of Jews.

How did Assad lose power? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once an al Qaeda affiliate known as the Nusra Front, headed by a man now known as Ahmad al Sharaa, but once known as Abu Muhammad al Jolani, and several other militias marched on Damascus, and took the nation on December 7, 2024. The critical question today is whether HTS and its shock troops have truly moderated their extremist Islamist views, and whether al Sharaa is the proper leader in which to repose hope for the future of Syria.

Before answering that question, a little history is in order.

In 14 years of war, the image that Assad wished to convey was of a stalwart secular leader battling the forces of Salafi Islam, mostly al Qaeda and ISIS, though much of his energy went to fighting moderate regime opponents, Alawites, Sunnis, and Christians among them. But for minorities choosing between the secular tyrants and the Islamists, there was an obvious choice — a slightly lesser evil over a greater evil. (I must note that labeling a Russia and Iran-aligned regime that murdered hundreds of thousands, and played handmaiden to Iran’s terror regime for decades as a “lesser evil” sticks in the craw.)

Fast forward to the end of 2024, and many assumed that the Assad regime had survived Syria’s civil war, the Iranians had won the day, and the Russians were once again ensconced in their first warm water port since the Cold War… only to see the regime suddenly toppled. True, Assad had not quelled the entire country, and around Idlib there were Sunni terror groups that held territory, the now-ruling HTS among them. In the country’s northeast, the U.S.-backed Kurdish army that makes up the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controlled a swath of territory and manned a prison and camp system holding tens of thousands of hardened ISIS terrorists and their families. There are about 2,000 US troops still in this part of Syria.

These are not the only players on the ground. The Israelis have dominated the skies over Syria for some time, and regularly eliminate Iranian or Iranian-allied individuals and arms shipments. Druze armed militias near the Israeli border on the Golan Heights have long tried to navigate a difficult relationship with the powers that be in Damascus. And finally, there is the Islamist Turkish government, which seeks to eliminate the Kurdish enclave and with it the SDF, back the nominally ex-al Qaeda forces that now control most of Syria, and otherwise seek to extend its writ over Syria.

In short, the reality in Syria is deeply complex and very hard to read. There are Syria experts who insist that al Sharaa is the real deal. Others make the case that the HTS is merely a stepping stone in Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to widen his Muslim Brotherhood empire. The Israelis label the new Syrian government “al Qaeda.”

So what happened in recent days in Syria? There can be little doubt there was an ethnic massacre of hundreds of Alawites and Christians. Were their killers Syrian Army forces now loyal to al Sharaa? Or were they Salafis freelancing? Is there a difference? Were there dozens of provocations by Assad retreads, who attacked and murdered now government forces? Possibly. Was the retaliation justified? No way.

Here’s the analytical dilemma: Notwithstanding the strange nostalgia for Assad that has risen in certain MAGA circles, the reality is that Assad was Iran’s stooge in the Middle East. Iran is trying to recoup access and territory inside Syria, and is paying and arming those who would restore Iranian allies to power. Tehran is amplifying the reports of attacks on Christians and Alawites. Weirdly, so is Israel. (How is it possible Israel and Iran are on the same side here?)

On the other hand, exonerating al Sharaa and HTS (despite their hostility to Iran) is not an option. There may be some exaggerations, but there should be no doubt that Syrian minorities have been targeted and brutally killed. If this is the new moderation in Syria, no thanks.

Many would like to use the killings in recent days to rewrite Assad’s history. Others would like to use Assad’s true crimes to whitewash al Sharaa and the HTS. But that’s not going to be how it works.

We may wish Syria would go away, or recede from the headlines; it certainly did for years while Assad did his killing. But someone must lead Syria. The challenge is a little bit like the one posed by Gaza. There are few decent candidates to take the helm. That is why, maybe, just maybe, the U.S. government should think about who should lead these broken nations. Absent decent candidates, we are doomed to face the same challenges and the threats they bring to Americans, again and again.