Did I feel better about our leaders ability to navigate world affairs in the 80's because they had more gravitas, or was I simply young and today am old and jaded?
Pager explosions and IDF destruction of Hezbollah weapons caches removed a chess piece that allowed Erdogan to support and prod the HTS, along with a few other miscreants, to crack Assad.
HTS is a criminal organization with a salafist aura, but no real theological foundation. They love letting their soldiers steal stuff and commit crimes. It helps meet the payroll. But, HTS is relatively weak in a country of weaker players. Their leader(s) know(s) this. They remain somewhat small in numbers, are even some of the “originals” are not entirely loyal. They have accepted a tenuous relationship with former Assad forces, whom they also do not trust. Thus, it is time to raise the pirate flag and purge any potential adversaries, making the new allies exterminate the victims as a test as a test of loyalty.
The IDF is right to brand them al Qaeda, or Cossa Nostra. Erdogan uses them for his objective — Making Turkey Great Again and eradicating the Kurds like they eradicated the Armenians.
Thus, the situation is fluid and by my take the great Satan and frienemy of Turkey, the USA, doesn’t hold a lot (any?) cards. Unless we get in deeper, and as you point out we are already in a more than a little, it will be hard for us to influence this situation. We are backing HTS biggest remaining adversary which makes us persona non-grata.
So, plan for HTS to be there for as long as they are useful. They will play everybody against the other — without offending their benefactors, Turkey.
Russia will find a way to keep their port and airfield. Turkey may dabble in influencing HTS, and the worst thing that might occur is a combined Turkish/HST movement against the Kurds (who knows, maybe the Iranians will help too). US forces are a trip wire if such a movement occurs, … and our air power is our best security. But, …, we could still be embarrassed by a swift attack on our base or ensnared somehow.
Syria, is over. Minorities are over. It’s Sunni-time, and probably a criminal caliphate. Hopefully the IDF can remove the current leadership and keep the revolving door rotating to avoid any accretion of power — there is no one in the wings, especially not Assad.
So, as you can guess, even though elements of this are sadly accurate, I remain persuaded that democracy is the only good outcome here. Many will say that democracy will produce a Salafi government; I'm not certain. Others will say that we need to accept the Assads of this world... for stability. But the only long-term stability we have seen in the modern world rests on the authority of the governed. I don't think the Israelis sign up to this idea, nor, of course, do the Arabs. But the truth is that there can be no stability where you cut corners by uniting with dictators, be they secular or Islamist. As a last, depressing note, let me remind our readers that Turkey is in NATO. What a bloody mess.
"The vast majority of Syrians are Sunni, though the country also has a sizable Muslim Kurdish and Druze minority, as well as a shrinking Christian minority and a handful of Jews."
FYI
Will a Kurdish-Druze Crescent Be a Bulwark Against Chaos in Syria?
Such an Alliance Could Ensure Local Rule and Counter Islamist Domination and Turkish Intrusions
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has plunged Syria into a new phase. While Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham depicts itself as being in control of Syria, its claim remains more aspirational than real. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham may control Damascus, Aleppo, and Idlib, but other Arab tribal groups and Druze are dominant in the south, Alawis remain important in Latakia, and the Kurds continue to administer much of Syria’s north and east.
Many Western governments, moderate Arab states, and Israel remain unconvinced if not concerned about the sincerity and depth of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s conversion from Al Qaeda militancy. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham boasts just 30,000 fighters, who have failed to man security checkpoints and carried out reprisal killings. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, the self-declared president of Syria, has failed to unite the group under a single banner.
My colleague Michael Rubin also works at the Middle East Forum. I confess to you that I don't think the Kurdish-Druze crescent will end up being a thing. It's not because it's not needed, or because their cause isn't just; it's simply that the demographics of the region, the engagement of the West, and the interests of the rest of the Arabs all push in the opposite direction.
Did I feel better about our leaders ability to navigate world affairs in the 80's because they had more gravitas, or was I simply young and today am old and jaded?
An excellent question. I ask myself the same question often.
On a positive note (one of the few in geezerland :-)) You get to say "I've Seen This Movie Before.".
Pager explosions and IDF destruction of Hezbollah weapons caches removed a chess piece that allowed Erdogan to support and prod the HTS, along with a few other miscreants, to crack Assad.
HTS is a criminal organization with a salafist aura, but no real theological foundation. They love letting their soldiers steal stuff and commit crimes. It helps meet the payroll. But, HTS is relatively weak in a country of weaker players. Their leader(s) know(s) this. They remain somewhat small in numbers, are even some of the “originals” are not entirely loyal. They have accepted a tenuous relationship with former Assad forces, whom they also do not trust. Thus, it is time to raise the pirate flag and purge any potential adversaries, making the new allies exterminate the victims as a test as a test of loyalty.
The IDF is right to brand them al Qaeda, or Cossa Nostra. Erdogan uses them for his objective — Making Turkey Great Again and eradicating the Kurds like they eradicated the Armenians.
Thus, the situation is fluid and by my take the great Satan and frienemy of Turkey, the USA, doesn’t hold a lot (any?) cards. Unless we get in deeper, and as you point out we are already in a more than a little, it will be hard for us to influence this situation. We are backing HTS biggest remaining adversary which makes us persona non-grata.
So, plan for HTS to be there for as long as they are useful. They will play everybody against the other — without offending their benefactors, Turkey.
Russia will find a way to keep their port and airfield. Turkey may dabble in influencing HTS, and the worst thing that might occur is a combined Turkish/HST movement against the Kurds (who knows, maybe the Iranians will help too). US forces are a trip wire if such a movement occurs, … and our air power is our best security. But, …, we could still be embarrassed by a swift attack on our base or ensnared somehow.
Syria, is over. Minorities are over. It’s Sunni-time, and probably a criminal caliphate. Hopefully the IDF can remove the current leadership and keep the revolving door rotating to avoid any accretion of power — there is no one in the wings, especially not Assad.
So, as you can guess, even though elements of this are sadly accurate, I remain persuaded that democracy is the only good outcome here. Many will say that democracy will produce a Salafi government; I'm not certain. Others will say that we need to accept the Assads of this world... for stability. But the only long-term stability we have seen in the modern world rests on the authority of the governed. I don't think the Israelis sign up to this idea, nor, of course, do the Arabs. But the truth is that there can be no stability where you cut corners by uniting with dictators, be they secular or Islamist. As a last, depressing note, let me remind our readers that Turkey is in NATO. What a bloody mess.
Hugh Hewtt
Dr. Michael Oren joins Hugh to discuss Syria and Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DH3chY4cEDA
Mar. 10 2025
"The vast majority of Syrians are Sunni, though the country also has a sizable Muslim Kurdish and Druze minority, as well as a shrinking Christian minority and a handful of Jews."
FYI
Will a Kurdish-Druze Crescent Be a Bulwark Against Chaos in Syria?
Such an Alliance Could Ensure Local Rule and Counter Islamist Domination and Turkish Intrusions
March 7, 2025
Benjamin Baird
https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/will-a-kurdish-druze-crescent-be-a-bulwark-against-chaos-in-syria
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has plunged Syria into a new phase. While Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham depicts itself as being in control of Syria, its claim remains more aspirational than real. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham may control Damascus, Aleppo, and Idlib, but other Arab tribal groups and Druze are dominant in the south, Alawis remain important in Latakia, and the Kurds continue to administer much of Syria’s north and east.
Many Western governments, moderate Arab states, and Israel remain unconvinced if not concerned about the sincerity and depth of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s conversion from Al Qaeda militancy. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham boasts just 30,000 fighters, who have failed to man security checkpoints and carried out reprisal killings. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, the self-declared president of Syria, has failed to unite the group under a single banner.
(Snip)
My colleague Michael Rubin also works at the Middle East Forum. I confess to you that I don't think the Kurdish-Druze crescent will end up being a thing. It's not because it's not needed, or because their cause isn't just; it's simply that the demographics of the region, the engagement of the West, and the interests of the rest of the Arabs all push in the opposite direction.
Just throwing ideas/views out.