#WTH The ceasefire

Real? Fake? Good? Bad?

Mere hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, he was confiding to friends that the Iranians were unserious, and that the bombings he had been threatening would likely go ahead. And then, 💥, ceasefire. Here’s exactly what the President said at the time:

What does success look like?

Before parsing whether there has been a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” a “double sided” ceasefire, and a “10 point proposal” which POTUS believes is a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” it will be helpful to review what was achieved in 39 days of bombing Iran with the Israelis. Per Gen. Dan “Razin” Cain, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff yesterday morning, the United States has taken out:

• ~80% of Iran’s air defense systems (>1500 AD targets)

• 450 ballistic missile storage facilities

• 800 one-way attack drone storage facilities

• >200 C2 nodes

• 90% of the Navy (150 ships) and half of IRGC small attack boats

• 95% of naval mines

• 90% of weapons factories including every factory that produced Shaheds and their guidance systems

• 80% of missile production facilities

• >20 naval production and fabrication facilities damaged or destroyed

• 80% of nuclear industrial base

Great.

Meanwhile, the Israelis have taken out, per a neat little list from the Washington Examiner:

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - Supreme Leader

• Ali Larijani - secretary of Iran’s National Security Council

• Esmaeil Khatib - Intelligence Minister

• Majid Khademi - IRGC intel chief

• Gholamreza Soleimani - IRGC Basij commander

• Ali Shamkhani - former head of Defense Council

• Mohammad Pakpour - IRGC leader

• Abdolrahim Mousavi - Armed Forces CoS

• Alireza Tangsiri - IRGC naval commander

• Aziz Nasirzadeh - Defense Minister

• Mohammad Shirazi - Supreme Leader’s military office

• Hossein Jabal Amelian - head of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research

• Reza Mozaffari Nia - former head of SPND (nuclear weapons)

• Majid Mousavi - IRGC Air Force

• Mohsen Darrebaghi - Deputy, Armed Forces

• Gholamreza Rezaian - police intelligence chief

• Bahram Hosseini Motlagh - armed forces general

• Mohammad Baseri — senior intelligence ministry official

• Salah Asadi — head of intelligence department.

This is not just the top tier of Iran’s political and security establishment; this is several layers in. And don’t forget nepo-ayatollah Mojtaba either. Neither he nor his cardboard avatar have been sighted recently.

For 39 days in the air, with remarkably few (though certainly lamentable) casualties, the United States and Israel have achieved a great deal. And while Iran can certainly build back better™, it will take some time. Much as the killing of Qassem Soleimani devastated the IRGC Quds Force planning and management, with the super-lame Esmail Qaani not even beginning to fill Soleimani’s shoes, removing experienced leaders is a difficult blow from which to recover.

So far so good. But then what happened?

So why the cease fire?

Here, I pause for some brief speculation: I believe the President has been frustrated by Iran’s unwillingness to bend, air campaign notwithstanding. I also believe he did not anticipate the impact of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Neither of these things are sins, and for a man as impatient as is Donald Trump, one can see he was hoping for something decisive by now. So he upped the ante.

Let us set aside what we can amicably agree was unnecessary and inappropriate hyperbole in threatening to annihilate Iran’s “civilization,” while at the same time sparing a scornful WTH for those lefty (and some righty) critics who have accused him almost in the same breath of being a war criminal, and being too chicken to be a war criminal.

Let us instead consider what Trump hoped would happen when he went to DEFCON 1 on the Iranians: Either, he hoped they would agree to come to the table to seriously discuss his demands for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” or he hoped they would simply capitulate and open Hormuz.

These were both fantasies that no serious member of the Trump administration would have suggested to the President. He simply, to use another fun numerical metaphor, went to 11, and then when the Iranians stared glassily, needed to make a call. Either hit them or go for a ceasefire. He chose to go for the ceasefire. There are two possibilities: Either Iran or Pakistan lied that the mullahs/IRGC would agree to Trump’s 15 point plan, or the President simply decided to say they had. I don’t know which it is.

Is the ceasefire real? Good? Hormuz? Is this the end?

The ceasefire is clearly real, in the sense that the United States has ceased firing on Iran, as have the Israelis. Iran has continued to lob missiles and drones at the Israelis and its Persian Gulf neighbors.

The Strait of Hormuz is not open, and Iran, having declared it open, then declared that all transit would pay Iran $2 million per ship in crypto, and then said the Strait was closed. Asked about Iranian extortion, the President said, “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.” Alrighty then.

Meanwhile there is some confusion about what sort of meeting of the minds there has been between the United States and Iran, in light of Ttump’s claim that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to." Iran has released three ten point plans, all variations on this one published by IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency):

1. An American guarantee of nonaggression with Iran.

2. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

4. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region.

5. Reparations to Iran for war damages.

6. Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.

7. Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran.

8. Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran.

9. Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

10. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.

This bears, and I use the word advisedly, literally no relationship to the 15 point plan offered by U.S. negotiators. None. So what was the President talking about when he said there was a good basis for discussions based on this plan? Hooey. He was talking hooey.

Among the U.S. demands in its own 15 point plan are the complete elimination of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, the giving over of all nuclear material, limits on Iran’s missile program, an end to all support for regional proxies, and guarantees for the security of the Iranian people.

[As an aside, this reminds me of when I was a kid, and another kid said to me, “I have that exact same jacket, but striped, and two different colors, and not a parka, but wool, and full length, not short, but the same. And Iran and America also have the same, if we agree that they both have something that says “plan.”]

So, tell me what’s going to happen?

I don’t know. VP Vance is heading for talks in Pakistan on Saturday. (Who the hell picked Pakistan, btw? And Egypt and Turkey, the other two middlemen? Pakistan is a nuclear proliferator and was the home to Osama bin Laden. What can a country do to get disqualified these days??)

There is no overlap between Plan America and Plan Iran. None. So we can pretend there is a real dialogue. Or we can declare Iran unserious. That would require that America and Israel return to war in order to achieve… what exactly? The President has not told us.

Here’s what I believe we need to achieve:

1. A verifiable end to the nuclear weapons program.

2. Verifiable limits on the missile program.

3. An end to support for regional proxies.

4. Human freedom for the people of Iran.

Are we going to get there with an air campaign? No.

Can we get there with some additional effort? Perhaps, if we empower Iran’s minorities, take Kharg Island and the Tunbs, hold the island and take Iran’s oil earnings and exports hostage, and then ask the regime if it would like a cease fire and is willing to reopen the Strait. Are we going to do that? I don't know. Nor are those steps a slam dunk.

Can we disarm Iran and prevent a race for a nuclear weapon while allowing this regime to remain in power? I doubt it. And what will happen if the regime remains in power, eventually reconstitutes its programs, continues to support terrorism, and kills more of its own people? Simple: The war will have been a failure, and a waste of lives, credibility, and money.

These are the decisions and challenges that confront the President. Success will mean a new Middle East. Failure will mean a new, and weakened, United States.

PS If you’re interested in what’s been happening with Iran’s nuclear sites, The Institute for Science and International Security has several good reports with satellite imagery. And some scary news about Iran working to aerosolize pharmaceuticals to create weapons. Yikes.