Just signed up--been a C&C fan for awhile and I think he recommended you work, good enough for me :)
My personal opinion is that Trump is negotiating with one faction, maybe the regular Army that the Prince publicly called on to honor their duty to their homeland, and the remnants of the mullah-mad IRGC is the party lobbing missiles and propaganda, trying everything they can to veto the ceasefire.
If the SOH is actually closed then Trump and Bibi need to follow through and finish the job. If its open and the IRGC is lying about it being closed, then there is hope the ceasefire negotiations can be productive, assuming any Iranians can be trusted to live up to commitments, which requires a huge leap of faith. I personally cannot make that leap.
My guess is that taking Kharg and the small islands at the mouth of the SOH would strangle the regime while also allowing the flow of oil to resume, at least until the oil stored on Kharg runs out.
Worst case is Trump, like others before him, chooses to declare victory, as previous presidents have done, but with massive loss of respect and political capital he cannot afford to lose. Yes, Iran will have been massively set back, but the Persian people still would be brutally oppressed, nuclear enrichment could eventually be restarted, and it will be another waiting game to see when they can threaten us and everyone else again. I sincerely hope this isn't the path Trump takes. Forcing Israel to back off Hezbollah would be a VERY bad sign to me.
On the other hand, Trump and his key Cabinet officers are exponentially smarter than their predecessors, so I still have faith that they will end up seeing this through successfully. But as much as I admire what Trump has accomplished, I do worry his ego and "I'm a peace-maker, deal maker extraordinaire" self image might cause him to pull his punches, as did GHW Bush vs Saddam.
I agree with a lot of your conclusions, except the negotiating with the army part. Unfortunately, the Artesh (Iran's regular army) really isn't politically powerful or connected. And even more unfortunately, the main negotiators appear to be... how shall I say this... the same regime we took on in the first place. See Eli Lake's excellent piece here. https://www.thefp.com/p/meet-the-new-faces-of-the-iranian
You could very well be correct, but I hope not. Hopefully Trump is too committed to fall for that.
I was thinking maybe the army because the Prince sent them a video imploring them to stand up for the homeland and honor their historic protection of the country They have guns, the civilians don't.
If Trump just leaves the third string IRGC in power, and restrains Israel as well, he's betrayed the Iranian people he will have set up for brutal reprisals and continued misery. I'm concerned that the Iranians are still not opening the straits, which was his condition for the ceasefire. So far, this ceasefire looks like a huge mistake, IMO.
Trump loses, Ms. Pletka, if any one of your four requirements are not fulfilled. And the U.S. with him. Boy it doesn’t look good. I suppose for 47 years presidents have simply not been willing to go all the way with Iran. I am coming to believe that simply "mowing the lawn" is not the best way forward. But it still is not over. Thank you for the analysis. Take care.
Mowing the lawn isn't feasible anymore. And worse yet, if anyone thinks it is (ahem, Israel), then Iran is going to snap Hormuz shut. So we could be worse off.
"Truth in wartime is so precious that she must be attended by a bodyguard of lies," Winston Churchill told Josef Stalin in Tehran, of all places, during a birthday celebration in 1943. It is so hard to figure out what the truth is, and Trump's "negotiating style," which spins faster than a hurricane, doesn't make it any easier to determine what has happened or will happen. Thanks for helping us make sense amidst the chaos.
The thing that worries me about the truth and this administration is that so many insiders are lying constantly to the press. "White House sources tell me..." Has become a way of saying, "JDVance told me..." And of course, he and his people are constantly backgrounding the press against Trump and Israel (see Maggie Haberman's work). Sigh.
"Anonymous sourcing" has been a scourge of the media since before I was a reporter. Sometimes these pseudo journalists premise their questions with "reporting suggests. . ." which spreads the propaganda and projection even further. I wish journalists knew better (they used to).
When the ceasefire was announce, I sad it will be gone by next week. I operate on the supposition that there are some people/groups you cannot negotiate with. If you are Hamas, Hezbollah, Iranian Mullah your breathing privileges are revoked.
U.S. and Iranian officials prepare for their first face-to-face talks since the war began, but Tehran’s opening demands highlight just how far apart the two sides remain heading into negotiations in Pakistan.
British officials reveal a covert Russian submarine operation targeting critical undersea cables and pipelines, raising fresh concerns about Moscow’s hybrid warfare strategy against the West.
"I believe the President has been frustrated by Iran’s unwillingness to bend, air campaign notwithstanding."
I believe He (like so many) does not really understand the ideology/theology governing Iran (and Hamas, Hezbollah. I'm not a fan of the PRC BUT they are a normal county, The ISLAMIC Republic of Iran is not. You COULD say its a death cult. They operate on the supposition that Allah (GOD) Wants This.
Ooooh, I don't agree at all. The PRC is a completely ideological enemy. Maoism may not be as sexy evil as Islamism, but tens of millions of dead would disagree with you on whether or not it is an ideology.
I too will absolve first to my daily dose of WTH to the lefties (it’s sort of a tax you have to pay in order to then criticize the Administration, so you can buy your essential lunatic/liberal-free pass) and then - as a conservative, Republican, give-me-another-Reagan kind of guy - just ask the question: what else must happen before we realise the unprecedented level of incompetence, greed and folly that is damaging the United States?
Simone, I left you for last because this wasn't a quick or simple answer. In fact, you inspired me to write a piece which I will put out in the coming week or so. There is nothing unprecedented about either our folly, incompetence, or greed. Donald Trump is at once more open about those things, and more transparent about the cynical decision making at the heart of our government. He is also more corrupt. But he is not the first corrupt, the first cynical, or the first incompetent president.
The problem for most of us who like some of what we see is that you take the good with the bad with DJT. Yes, he's awful on Russia and just wrong on China. The economics of tariffs bear no relationship to what either he or his odd economic advisers profess. On the other hand, without Trump, NATO would still be the pathetic shell it had become in the late 20th and 21st centuries. Without him, Israel would still be at war with the UAE, Bahrain and others. Without him, Iran would be on track for a nuclear weapon at a time of its choosing.
This is why I call balls and strikes. I say what I like, I denounce what I don't, and I always remember, there was an alternative: Stupid, corrupt, Israel-hating, America-hating, Kamala and the increasingly insane Democratic Party. Remember, we choose between what we have, not between good and better. Sometimes it's bad and worse.
I continue to believe America is the greatest nation on earth, and I say that having lived in a fair number of countries. And I know you love this country too. We take the good with the bad. On balance, I prefer what we have now to what we had then. I'd prefer it on mute, but it's not up to me to decide. xx
Hmmm, surprising comment in that it ignores most of the good Trump has done at home and abroad. I don't see him as corrupt, would love some specifics on that. If he were, he'd have been locked away long ago given the powerful enemies' witch hunts against him.
As for incompetence, would also like some specifics. He's an egomaniac, but so is every single one of the billionaires I've personally met, which includes some household name Fortune 50 billionaires I've done direct work for. His communication style is painful but is part of his brand and people need to understand that. That said, he digs some unnecessary holes for himself that make me wince. Listening to Vance and Rubio makes me wish he'd just be a normal communicator, but then Obama was oratorically smooth but an absolute disaster for America, so I'll take loutish language at times in exchange for patriotism.
Re competence, name me a better cabinet any president in your lifetime has had than his? DEI is on its back foot, MAHA is revolutionizing an ossified health system. The number of government employees is dramatically reduced.The southern border is closed. Net immigration is lowest in many decades. Manufacturing is coming home and trillions of foreign capital are being invested here because of him. His tariffs remain a powerful stick, as well as generating billions of income, despite the (IMO) idiotic SCOTUS ruling. Butchering children in the name of trans wokeness is about dead. Millions of violent illegal criminals and other illegals are being deported, whether by ICE or by self. Drug flows into the country and opioid deaths are significantly down. Crime rates are down dramatically.
Taxes have been reduced, inflation is down from Biden's absurdity and we are meaningfully growing again, the only way to reduce our debt. Were it not for an inept/cowardly GOP Senate, we'd be well underway to protecting the honesty of our elections, and were it not for brazenly lawless lower level judges and a feckless (at best) John Roberts, Trump's policies would be much farther along.
Then there is energy independence, HUGELY important for our freedom and our future technologies.
Venezuela happened. Midnight Hammer happened. Iran, a country of 90 million with huge military assets has been brought to the brink (though I want to see it finished properly).
Not sure what you think he should be doing re Russia and China that is realistically possible. He's gotten us off the back foot with China, restored some balance in the trade situation with them, and I doubt seriously that they have any momentum towards attacking Taiwan given the humbling Trump's military has handed both China and Russia in showing our complete domination of their defensive technology in Venezuela and Iran. Russia seems mostly a paper tiger given their inability to do anything comparable in their 4 year way with Ukraine, and they are the EU's problem as far as I'm concerned.
Even little Fat Boy N Korea is paying attention and behaving.
None of these are likely, or even possible, were not Trump a vastly more competent president than any of his predecessors in my lifetime, including Reagan, whom I loved.
Sorry for the long note, but I don't think you were quite fair to the man, with respect.
Just signed up--been a C&C fan for awhile and I think he recommended you work, good enough for me :)
My personal opinion is that Trump is negotiating with one faction, maybe the regular Army that the Prince publicly called on to honor their duty to their homeland, and the remnants of the mullah-mad IRGC is the party lobbing missiles and propaganda, trying everything they can to veto the ceasefire.
If the SOH is actually closed then Trump and Bibi need to follow through and finish the job. If its open and the IRGC is lying about it being closed, then there is hope the ceasefire negotiations can be productive, assuming any Iranians can be trusted to live up to commitments, which requires a huge leap of faith. I personally cannot make that leap.
My guess is that taking Kharg and the small islands at the mouth of the SOH would strangle the regime while also allowing the flow of oil to resume, at least until the oil stored on Kharg runs out.
Worst case is Trump, like others before him, chooses to declare victory, as previous presidents have done, but with massive loss of respect and political capital he cannot afford to lose. Yes, Iran will have been massively set back, but the Persian people still would be brutally oppressed, nuclear enrichment could eventually be restarted, and it will be another waiting game to see when they can threaten us and everyone else again. I sincerely hope this isn't the path Trump takes. Forcing Israel to back off Hezbollah would be a VERY bad sign to me.
On the other hand, Trump and his key Cabinet officers are exponentially smarter than their predecessors, so I still have faith that they will end up seeing this through successfully. But as much as I admire what Trump has accomplished, I do worry his ego and "I'm a peace-maker, deal maker extraordinaire" self image might cause him to pull his punches, as did GHW Bush vs Saddam.
Fingers crossed.
I agree with a lot of your conclusions, except the negotiating with the army part. Unfortunately, the Artesh (Iran's regular army) really isn't politically powerful or connected. And even more unfortunately, the main negotiators appear to be... how shall I say this... the same regime we took on in the first place. See Eli Lake's excellent piece here. https://www.thefp.com/p/meet-the-new-faces-of-the-iranian
And thank you for signing up! Dany
You could very well be correct, but I hope not. Hopefully Trump is too committed to fall for that.
I was thinking maybe the army because the Prince sent them a video imploring them to stand up for the homeland and honor their historic protection of the country They have guns, the civilians don't.
If Trump just leaves the third string IRGC in power, and restrains Israel as well, he's betrayed the Iranian people he will have set up for brutal reprisals and continued misery. I'm concerned that the Iranians are still not opening the straits, which was his condition for the ceasefire. So far, this ceasefire looks like a huge mistake, IMO.
Trump loses, Ms. Pletka, if any one of your four requirements are not fulfilled. And the U.S. with him. Boy it doesn’t look good. I suppose for 47 years presidents have simply not been willing to go all the way with Iran. I am coming to believe that simply "mowing the lawn" is not the best way forward. But it still is not over. Thank you for the analysis. Take care.
Mowing the lawn isn't feasible anymore. And worse yet, if anyone thinks it is (ahem, Israel), then Iran is going to snap Hormuz shut. So we could be worse off.
"Truth in wartime is so precious that she must be attended by a bodyguard of lies," Winston Churchill told Josef Stalin in Tehran, of all places, during a birthday celebration in 1943. It is so hard to figure out what the truth is, and Trump's "negotiating style," which spins faster than a hurricane, doesn't make it any easier to determine what has happened or will happen. Thanks for helping us make sense amidst the chaos.
Remember the book, Bodyguard of Lies? A good one.
The thing that worries me about the truth and this administration is that so many insiders are lying constantly to the press. "White House sources tell me..." Has become a way of saying, "JDVance told me..." And of course, he and his people are constantly backgrounding the press against Trump and Israel (see Maggie Haberman's work). Sigh.
Yes, I'm liking Vance less and less, and Rubio more and more.
"Anonymous sourcing" has been a scourge of the media since before I was a reporter. Sometimes these pseudo journalists premise their questions with "reporting suggests. . ." which spreads the propaganda and projection even further. I wish journalists knew better (they used to).
That crazy ceasefire
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/04/that-crazy-ceasefire.php
Scott Johnson
Apr. 9 2026
Yes, the details aren’t pretty. On the upside, we’re getting as good at lying as the Iranians 😔
When the ceasefire was announce, I sad it will be gone by next week. I operate on the supposition that there are some people/groups you cannot negotiate with. If you are Hamas, Hezbollah, Iranian Mullah your breathing privileges are revoked.
Mike Baker
RAN SHOWS ITS HAND: Demands Could Derail Talks Before They Begin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BfJwHWp0SQ
U.S. and Iranian officials prepare for their first face-to-face talks since the war began, but Tehran’s opening demands highlight just how far apart the two sides remain heading into negotiations in Pakistan.
British officials reveal a covert Russian submarine operation targeting critical undersea cables and pipelines, raising fresh concerns about Moscow’s hybrid warfare strategy against the West.
If only...
"I believe the President has been frustrated by Iran’s unwillingness to bend, air campaign notwithstanding."
I believe He (like so many) does not really understand the ideology/theology governing Iran (and Hamas, Hezbollah. I'm not a fan of the PRC BUT they are a normal county, The ISLAMIC Republic of Iran is not. You COULD say its a death cult. They operate on the supposition that Allah (GOD) Wants This.
Ooooh, I don't agree at all. The PRC is a completely ideological enemy. Maoism may not be as sexy evil as Islamism, but tens of millions of dead would disagree with you on whether or not it is an ideology.
Didn't say they were not Evil, just they are Normal. Normal in that they are not suicidal, The people running Iran Are.
I too will absolve first to my daily dose of WTH to the lefties (it’s sort of a tax you have to pay in order to then criticize the Administration, so you can buy your essential lunatic/liberal-free pass) and then - as a conservative, Republican, give-me-another-Reagan kind of guy - just ask the question: what else must happen before we realise the unprecedented level of incompetence, greed and folly that is damaging the United States?
Simone, I left you for last because this wasn't a quick or simple answer. In fact, you inspired me to write a piece which I will put out in the coming week or so. There is nothing unprecedented about either our folly, incompetence, or greed. Donald Trump is at once more open about those things, and more transparent about the cynical decision making at the heart of our government. He is also more corrupt. But he is not the first corrupt, the first cynical, or the first incompetent president.
The problem for most of us who like some of what we see is that you take the good with the bad with DJT. Yes, he's awful on Russia and just wrong on China. The economics of tariffs bear no relationship to what either he or his odd economic advisers profess. On the other hand, without Trump, NATO would still be the pathetic shell it had become in the late 20th and 21st centuries. Without him, Israel would still be at war with the UAE, Bahrain and others. Without him, Iran would be on track for a nuclear weapon at a time of its choosing.
This is why I call balls and strikes. I say what I like, I denounce what I don't, and I always remember, there was an alternative: Stupid, corrupt, Israel-hating, America-hating, Kamala and the increasingly insane Democratic Party. Remember, we choose between what we have, not between good and better. Sometimes it's bad and worse.
I continue to believe America is the greatest nation on earth, and I say that having lived in a fair number of countries. And I know you love this country too. We take the good with the bad. On balance, I prefer what we have now to what we had then. I'd prefer it on mute, but it's not up to me to decide. xx
Hmmm, surprising comment in that it ignores most of the good Trump has done at home and abroad. I don't see him as corrupt, would love some specifics on that. If he were, he'd have been locked away long ago given the powerful enemies' witch hunts against him.
As for incompetence, would also like some specifics. He's an egomaniac, but so is every single one of the billionaires I've personally met, which includes some household name Fortune 50 billionaires I've done direct work for. His communication style is painful but is part of his brand and people need to understand that. That said, he digs some unnecessary holes for himself that make me wince. Listening to Vance and Rubio makes me wish he'd just be a normal communicator, but then Obama was oratorically smooth but an absolute disaster for America, so I'll take loutish language at times in exchange for patriotism.
Re competence, name me a better cabinet any president in your lifetime has had than his? DEI is on its back foot, MAHA is revolutionizing an ossified health system. The number of government employees is dramatically reduced.The southern border is closed. Net immigration is lowest in many decades. Manufacturing is coming home and trillions of foreign capital are being invested here because of him. His tariffs remain a powerful stick, as well as generating billions of income, despite the (IMO) idiotic SCOTUS ruling. Butchering children in the name of trans wokeness is about dead. Millions of violent illegal criminals and other illegals are being deported, whether by ICE or by self. Drug flows into the country and opioid deaths are significantly down. Crime rates are down dramatically.
Taxes have been reduced, inflation is down from Biden's absurdity and we are meaningfully growing again, the only way to reduce our debt. Were it not for an inept/cowardly GOP Senate, we'd be well underway to protecting the honesty of our elections, and were it not for brazenly lawless lower level judges and a feckless (at best) John Roberts, Trump's policies would be much farther along.
Then there is energy independence, HUGELY important for our freedom and our future technologies.
Venezuela happened. Midnight Hammer happened. Iran, a country of 90 million with huge military assets has been brought to the brink (though I want to see it finished properly).
Not sure what you think he should be doing re Russia and China that is realistically possible. He's gotten us off the back foot with China, restored some balance in the trade situation with them, and I doubt seriously that they have any momentum towards attacking Taiwan given the humbling Trump's military has handed both China and Russia in showing our complete domination of their defensive technology in Venezuela and Iran. Russia seems mostly a paper tiger given their inability to do anything comparable in their 4 year way with Ukraine, and they are the EU's problem as far as I'm concerned.
Even little Fat Boy N Korea is paying attention and behaving.
None of these are likely, or even possible, were not Trump a vastly more competent president than any of his predecessors in my lifetime, including Reagan, whom I loved.
Sorry for the long note, but I don't think you were quite fair to the man, with respect.