Ms. Pletka, let’s imagine that the attack on Iran was in some way a message to China that the United States will act to deter perceived threats, how far did that succeed? And does the balance sheet tip toward a good outcome or not?
What are Arab countries saying under their breath?
Me: any deal is perceived as failure if not in reality. Take care.
As a manager, I've learned to avoid (and be wary of) assumptions. Fortunately, I don't have to write political newsletters - I have the luxury of waiting to see facts, and not just publication of pre-deal points (that vary substantially by source). This week (apparently), we'll get to see the specific wording of a single document signed by both the U.S. and Iran that states what both parties will have agreed to and we can analyze the facts of that deal. (I'll be interested to see how many of the pre-deal points are, in fact, part of the final deal.)
With all that being said, I'll be looking for clues on how this deal could be managed - by both the U.S. and Iran. Just looking at the initial reports, I can see where any number of issues where either party could blow up the deal and claim they're doing so because the other party did not comply with their obligations or agree on key details.
Examples:
* Iran claims they don't get funding or sanctions relief when they believe it is due.
* Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into Israel, and the subsequent retaliation leads Iran to fault the U.S. for not reining in Israel, at which point Iran backs out.
* Maybe the U.S. gets tired of waiting on pointless negotiations with Iran over disposal of Iran's nuclear material and there's never sanctions relief or funds unlocked.
Given the key pressure point for Trump is likely the mid-terms, how does the deal get managed AFTER the elections? By December 2026 we could hear, "We've signed a deal with Iran in good faith, but after six months of a 60-day negotiating period Iran still hasn't given up their nuclear material so the deal is off." As of right now, I have low confidence that a deal is likely to hold.
As of this morning, oil is trading at $80/bbl. It will likely drop further shortly after the deal is signed. And U.S. voters have a few months to experience a strong economy (and lower gasoline prices) heading into elections.
I'll also be interested in the lessons learned from this conflict. One lesson I hope to see is a recognition by our Gulf States allies that in order to be protected from Iran, they're going to need to invest in some defense spending - interceptors, anti-drone capabilities... This is a weak point that caused the Gulf State allies to ask the U.S. not to continue the strikes. Other activities to reduce the strategic importance of Hormuz are also steps in the right direction (if they can be protected).
Donald Trump Is A Businessman. He Loves Making Deals. He made a deal (maybe), about making a deal (maybe).
Iran War Lessons: What Worked, What Failed, and What Must Change
Ryan McBeth
June 15 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INQHl0aWacA
(Snip)
This is not about cheerleading or doomposting. It is an honest AAR: what worked, what failed, and what we should do better next time.
Topics covered:
Why the U.S. chose to act against Iran
Patriot and THAAD missile defense performance
Iran’s failed information warfare campaign
U.S. cyber operations
Combat search and rescue
The Strait of Hormuz gamble
Why allies matter
Counter-drone lessons from Ukraine
The need for the E-7 Wedgetail or an AWACS replacement
Embedded creators and information warfare
What China, Russia, and Iran learned from this conflict
Ms. Pletka, let’s imagine that the attack on Iran was in some way a message to China that the United States will act to deter perceived threats, how far did that succeed? And does the balance sheet tip toward a good outcome or not?
What are Arab countries saying under their breath?
Me: any deal is perceived as failure if not in reality. Take care.
Sorry, I meant the Iranian experts of every stripe.
I'm betting that the Iranians of every stripe are wrong.
As a manager, I've learned to avoid (and be wary of) assumptions. Fortunately, I don't have to write political newsletters - I have the luxury of waiting to see facts, and not just publication of pre-deal points (that vary substantially by source). This week (apparently), we'll get to see the specific wording of a single document signed by both the U.S. and Iran that states what both parties will have agreed to and we can analyze the facts of that deal. (I'll be interested to see how many of the pre-deal points are, in fact, part of the final deal.)
With all that being said, I'll be looking for clues on how this deal could be managed - by both the U.S. and Iran. Just looking at the initial reports, I can see where any number of issues where either party could blow up the deal and claim they're doing so because the other party did not comply with their obligations or agree on key details.
Examples:
* Iran claims they don't get funding or sanctions relief when they believe it is due.
* Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into Israel, and the subsequent retaliation leads Iran to fault the U.S. for not reining in Israel, at which point Iran backs out.
* Maybe the U.S. gets tired of waiting on pointless negotiations with Iran over disposal of Iran's nuclear material and there's never sanctions relief or funds unlocked.
Given the key pressure point for Trump is likely the mid-terms, how does the deal get managed AFTER the elections? By December 2026 we could hear, "We've signed a deal with Iran in good faith, but after six months of a 60-day negotiating period Iran still hasn't given up their nuclear material so the deal is off." As of right now, I have low confidence that a deal is likely to hold.
As of this morning, oil is trading at $80/bbl. It will likely drop further shortly after the deal is signed. And U.S. voters have a few months to experience a strong economy (and lower gasoline prices) heading into elections.
I'll also be interested in the lessons learned from this conflict. One lesson I hope to see is a recognition by our Gulf States allies that in order to be protected from Iran, they're going to need to invest in some defense spending - interceptors, anti-drone capabilities... This is a weak point that caused the Gulf State allies to ask the U.S. not to continue the strikes. Other activities to reduce the strategic importance of Hormuz are also steps in the right direction (if they can be protected).